Discussion about this post

User's avatar
Fabius Minarchus's avatar

Regarding population: C.M. Kornbluth wrote a whole bunch of short stories on the subject from all sorts of angles back in the 50s. Steal some ideas and expand on them. Think "The Marching Morons" -> "Idiocracy."

The "His Share of Glory" anthology is well worth picking up.

Expand full comment
Ahnaf Ibn Qais's avatar

Interesting Article.

The Author’s prognosis about ‘the Near Future of Sci-Fi & what will sell with & appeal to readers’ is interesting but ultimately mistaken on the key issues & the ‘bird’s-eye view.’

Per capita Energy & Electricity numbers for Europe & North America have been stagnant to declining for several decades. Even though Duncan’s Olduvai Theory re: Mass Blackouts circa the early 2030s & beyond will likely be incorrect, the trends indicate that sometime in the mid to late 21st century, most parts of the world will have to make do with less energy, materials, & population. America has been in an electricity plateau since the late 90s, meaning that AI & its large energy requirements, infrastructure, etc, are DOA.

Classical Sci-Fi is a genre born during a Positive-Sum World, where Energy, Materials, & Population were growing. Now that we no longer live in that world, that Genre will die with it.

If anything, Fantasy, Deindustrial fiction, & Fatalist Literature will probably increase in their overall influence & clout, albeit many True believers will still remain for quite some Time.

Overall, I think to understand general trends... one needs to go back to Basics.

The Prime Motif in British English Literature is 'The Wedding' (Union, social order, or ironic stability), while in American English literature, it is 'The Road' (Escape, reinvention, or endless pursuit). These two are fundamentally incompatible.

It is not an accident that the latter is what gave rise to the Classic Sci-Fi genre, given the boons & surpluses that wider American society had access to.

Now that we are in a Negative-Sum Environment, the foundations necessary to generate, upkeep & maintain said Genre... will slowly wither & die likewise. Mid-millenium & beyond, till about the start of the Next Millenia... the genres that descend from Sci-Fi &/or Serally Succeed it will be antagonistic to these prime elements (i.e. endless pursuit & its various corollaries).

Expand full comment
60 more comments...

No posts