Updating My Priors

Reflections on Past Predictions

Managing a weekly blog requires a semi-constant immersion in the present moment. Blogging less frequently has allowed me to maintain an emotional distance from current events that has been (if nothing else) psychologically beneficial. But that same emotional distance makes it difficult to engage on the matters of the day. To avoid collapsing into a state of substack senescence, I’m reviewing my past predictions in light of recent events in order to “update my priors” to make better predictions for the future.

You’ll find this piece a lot more conversational and circuitous than many of my other essays on this blog. I’m reflecting as I write, rather than writing with a pre-determined thesis that I aim to convey. By sketching out my thoughts in real-time, I’m hoping it’ll generate fresh insights for future essays and topics to explore.

The Collapse of the Petrodollar?

Back in December 28, 2022, in an essay entitled “Predictions and Prophecies for 2023,” I made exactly one prediction for the year ahead:

The Petrodollar System will end! As I explained in my series Running on Empty, the petrodollar is the centerpiece of American hegemony. I predict that in 2023, at the latest 2024, that system will end. Its demise may be disguised by the mainstream and financial press, but it will be self-evident in the transactions themselves, and its aftershocks will be mighty.

By April 2023, it was already clear that this prediction had come true. In The System is Down!, I presented evidence from two dozen articles that the petrodollar system had effectively ceased. The most important evidence: Saudi Arabia’s Finance Minister publicly announced in March 2023 that the kingdom would begin trading in currencies other than the US dollar. That can be considered the official end of the system, which began 50 years prior with a Saudi-led OPEC agreement to insist on dollars for oil. (Remember, the petrodollar system was never about America having the ability itself to use dollars to buy oil; it was about America imposing an obligation on other countries to use dollars to buy oil. )

With the petrodollar system’s demise, all of the second-order effects I documented in Running on Empty will slowly come to an end. The petrodollar system meant that:

• US dollar was strong (due to perpetual demand)

• US consumer inflation was low (due to cheap imports)

• US asset inflation was high (due to petrodollar recycling and offshore investing)

• Precious metals were restrained (since they weren’t needed as a reserve).

Now that the petrodollar system has ended, all of these factors will change, indeed are changing, though the rate of change is uneven. The US Dollar Index (DXY) fell more than 10 percent in the first half of 2025, marking its biggest drop since 1973. The dollar depreciated sharply by 7.9 percent against the euro in the second quarter of 2025 alone. Overall, the dollar was down by approximately 5.04% over the 12 months leading up to October 2025.

From 2010 to 2020, US consumer inflation was just 1.77% per year, but it now stands at around 2.9% to 3.2%. A 50% increase in the rate of inflation is bad but I suspect we will see much worse as de-dollarization accelerates. Meanwhile, US real estate has stopped inflating and is merely holding steady with consumer prices. An investor who put $50,000 into US homes (measured by the Case-Shiller Home Price Index) in mid-October 2023 would have $52,102.

Precious metals, of course, have skyrocketed. An investor who put $50,000 into gold in mid-October 2023 would have $108,300 today. If he’d bought silver, he’d have $117,850. (If he’d bought bitcoin, $154,050.) Gold now exceeds one-fifth of world central bank reserves, while economic powerhouses like China and Japan have begun to shed their holdings of U.S. Treasuries at an increasingly rapid clip.

I consider my prediction of petrodollar collapse empirically validated (and I hope some of you financially benefited from the prediction).

The Start of World War III?

In Predictions and Prophecies for 2024, I again made just one prediction:

The long-awaited Third World War will begin (at least insofar as America is concerned).

This prediction was building on my multipart series World War Next (found here, here, and here), which explained why war was likely and how it would play out.

Now, a number of analysts and pundits insisted that World War III did in fact begin in 2024:

• Israel Katz, Foreign Minister of Israel, proclaimed in January 2024 that “We’re in the middle of World War III against Iran [led] radical Islam, whose tentacles are already in Europe.”

• Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, remarked in October 2024 that “World War III has already begun. You already have battles on the ground being coordinated in multiple countries.”

• Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s former military Commander-in-Chief and current envoy to the United Kingdom, stated in November 2024 “I believe that in 2024 we can absolutely believe that the Third World War has begun.”

But they were in a minority. A far larger number of experts argued that the feared global conflict was not really at hand. This one is also easy to empirically validate:

Since I am writing this from the comfort of my air-conditioned breakfast nook while sipping coffee delivered to me by Instacart, rather than broadcasting it over a pirate radio in the post-apocalyptic wasteland of nuclear-irradiated Bull City, I am forced to agree with the majority of experts: World War III did not begin in 2024.

At this point, even if mega-violence occurs in the months or years ahead, it seems unlikely that historians would attribute them to some cause from 2024, e.g. it won’t be retroactively deemed the start of “World War III.”

I think it’s safe to say this was a thankfully over-pessimistic prediction. If any of you moved to Eastern Appalachia or Idaho to become survivalists based on my counsel, I apologize profusely for my miscall. However, you might still have made the right choice…

The Coming of the American Eschaton?

In September 27, 2023 I predicted that an “American Eschaton” was 16 months away.

I predict an American Eschaton: The end of America as we know it. It will be a Fourth Turning, but it will be a Fourth Turning that goes against us. The exact manner in which our eschaton will occur is much harder to predict. The end of America as we know it doesn’t necessarily mean nuclear apocalypse, government collapse, or secession. It could simply mean a transformation of America into something Unamerican. (The Russian Revolution of 1918 was the end of Russia as the Russian of the time knew it, for instance.)

I offered the following predictions of what might occur, from most to least likely:

• Managerial triumph followed by a slow, grinding degeneration that reveals itself as collapse only in retrospect;

• Managerial triumph followed by near-term collapse;

• Global war;

• Civil war;

• Peaceful national divorce;

• Trump’s triumph followed by a renewal of America.

But following the failed assassination attempt against President Trump, I penned a follow-on article in July 2024 where I updated my worldview:

Trump is now so far ahead in the polls that it will be hard for anything short of utterly blatant fraud, or even complete cancellation of the elections, to keep the Left in power. Given the Right’s simmering resentment over the 2020 election, repeating than fraudulent antics of 2020 in an even more egregious manner, when Trump is so far ahead now, seems much more likely to lead to national divorce or civil war from the Right than was the case 11 months ago.

I argued that collapse and global war were also highly likely, because Trump might be getting “set up” as the fall guy:

Imagine, if you will, that the smartest members of the ruling class have concluded that Trump is very likely to win; imagine, further that they believe economic calamity is unavoidable or global war is inevitable or necessary. If so, then it would make sense to allow Trump to be elected and then “accelerate” progress towards these events. Why?

If there is an economic collapse under Trump’s administration (perhaps due to de-dollarization), he will be blamed in the same way that Herbert Hoover was blamed for the Great Depression; and just as Hoover’s economic policies were utterly discredited for generations, so too will Trump’s. Moreover, the resulting economic conditions might pave the way for a new Roosevelt on the Left with the usual socialist promises to make things better.

On the other hand, if there is a global war, then having Trump in office is virtually the only means by which young white men — the core of our fighting force — are likely to be persuaded to accept a draft or go to war. Not many men would die for Biden or globohomo, but if Trump issues the call and the cause seems patriotic, many (not all, but enough) will respond.

How such a war might break out; I’ve already discussed. Trump does not seem likely to escalate against Russia, but it seems entirely possible he might support Israel if its war breaks out into a wider war, perhaps triggering a cascade into global war; alternatively, there remains the possibility of Chinese action against Taiwan. Regardless, as I’ve previously explained, we’ll likely lose the war for lack of industrial capacity, positioning Trump as the fall guy for our military failure.

Finally, in December 2024, in my essay Predictions and Prophecies for 2025, I doubled down on this prediction:

What’s my prediction and prophecy for 2025?

I predict Trump will take office peacefully but he will be confronted by a combination of global war and/or economic collapse intended to trigger the expected American Eschaton.

As of yet this prediction hasn’t come true - but I could fill up the rest of this article with links suggesting it’s about to. Anyone who spends enough time on Telegram, Substack, X, or even 4Chan will have seen the evidence of skyrocketing debt, teetering markets, global flashpoints, and looming civil conflict:

Overall, my 2024 prediction seems on track. It could become as prescient as my 2022 petrodollar prediction. Even so, the prediction wasn’t quite right, for two big reasons.

1. I assumed that economic collapse and/or warfare might be brought on by other parties despite Trump’s orientation towards prosperity and peace — pinning it on him as it were. Some pundits have argued that Trump himself will be quite complicit in what befalls us. I know a number of people who were fans of the Administration have been upset by its hawkish foreign policy and TACO tariff tactics. That’s a discussion you all can hash out in the comments.

2. I really didn’t anticipate that our political and technocratic elite would all simultaneously align themselves in support of an AI-powered American future. Far from accelerating a post-collapse “Great Reset,” the elite agenda now seems to be…

The American Eschaton Replaced by American Automaton?

In May 30, 2025 I finally realized that our country’s leadership had decided that AI and robotics were the new path by which America would avoid economic collapse, win its wars, and defeat demographic its decline. Seemingly overnight, the entire elite of the United States had realigned to usher in an AI Age. I wrote:

[AI] is the final game, the last domain of dominion. Our rulers know it. You can see it in the sudden unity across the American elite. Left, right, corporate, academic, every faction has converged to support AI development. None of them is going to stop the train. They’re all aboard.

The people will rise up, you say? Well, let’s talk about the people. The West isn’t just deindustrializing, it’s depopulating. Our demographics are declining far faster than anyone (publicly) predicted and for reasons no one can (openly) explain.

It’s a huge problem, because our entire economy is centered on growth, and population growth drives all other growth. To make up for declining numbers of consumers, the ruling powers have opened the borders to immigrants at a scale unprecedented in human history.

But mass immigration, as a policy, has failed. Mass immigration has strained welfare systems, sent crime rates soaring, and generated parallel societies-within-societies. The economic benefits have proven illusory. Immigration increases overall GDP, but GDP is fake. In terms of real impact on countries, mass immigration is a net negative.

And so the new plan is automation. If the West cannot import new workers, it will manufacture them. Mr. Rashid is out. Mr. Roboto is in. Those robots are being developed even now, and they’ll begin rolling out in the years ahead. And they’re going to be powered by AI.

I got some pushback when I wrote that essay, largely from incredulous skeptics of AI who couldn’t believe that we were really betting the country on something as stupid as ChatGPT. But we really are. Elon Musk (now back on Team Trump since Charlie Kirk’s assassination) has been absolutely explicit that this is plan:

If it were just Elon saying these things, perhaps we could dismiss them as the mad optimism of an upwing prophet. But when the White House issued its AI Action Plan, it sounded more upwing than Elon. The US AI Action Plan has made it really, really, really clear, that yes, AI is how they plan to save America:

Winning the AI race will usher in a new golden age of human flourishing, economic competitiveness, and national security for the American people. AI will enable Americans to discover new materials, synthesize new chemicals, manufacture new drugs, and develop new methods to harness energy—an industrial revolution. It will enable radically new forms of education, media, and communication—an information revolution. And it will enable altogether new intellectual achievements: unraveling ancient scrolls once thought unreadable, making breakthroughs in scientific and mathematical theory, and creating new kinds of digital and physical art—a renaissance. An industrial revolution, an information revolution, and a renaissance—all at once. This is the potential that AI presents. The opportunity that stands before us is both inspiring and humbling. And it is ours to seize, or to lose.

Good plan, bad plan, stupid plan, it’s The Plan. Our leaders have no Plan B. They should have a Plan B, there are Plan Bs available, but those plans seem to be well outside their Overton Windows. They’re so confident in the potential of AI, and so pessimistic about our prospects without it, that they are willing to tolerate a 20% existential risk of doom to get there.

So my predictions here have held up quite well. And that’s the state of the world today. Where does that leave us?

What Does the Future Hold?

It seems to me that, with the petrodollar ended, the American Eschaton on hold, World War III avoided (for now), and the AI Action Plan underway, we now have eight broadly plausible scenarios to consider. Each of these is complex enough to justify an entire article or even article series, so I’m just going to skim through them.

1. The Age of Abundance. Elon Musk and other upwingers might be right that we are approaching an Age of Abundance via AI and robotics. I am increasingly persuaded that they are right about the technology - that is, the advancement in AI and robotics is genuinely impressive and promises to become truly transformative. I’m less persuaded that America has the energy and industrial infrastructure to deliver on the promise. (Some would argue that even if the Age of Abundance arrives, it might be quite dystopian, especially if the AI powering it is woke or used to create a UBI-managed techno-surveillance state. We’ll put aside those concerns for now.) In this scenario, things become better, and then become breathtakingly good.

2. The Age of Annihilation. Eliezer Yudkowsky and other AI doomers might be right that AI will destroy us all. I wouldn’t put my P(doom) even as high as Elon’s 20%, let alone the 50%, 75%, and 99% P(doom) that some AI doomers argue for. But 5% maybe? I could see it. In this scenario, things become better, and then the AIs kill us all. Very sad.

3. The Second Great Depression. What if AI turns out to be neither a revolutionary technology nor an annihilating force, but simply… Pets.com? If AI is a bubble, it’s an enormous bubble, and when it pops, the explosion will take down the economy. In this scenario, things get much worse, and then become utterly unpredictable. At best, that means a bad decade or two, followed by the Same Old Shit. But it could lead to a host of second- and third-order calamities; both the Third World War and Second Civil War seem far more likely if we succumb to an economic collapse.

4. The Third World War. All of the reasons to expect global war that I outlined in World War Next remain, and President Trump in 2025 seems more bellicose than President Trump in 2016. An economic collapse would greatly magnify the chance of war. Again, things get much worse, and then become totally unpredictable.

5. The Second Civil War. I hate to have to include this scenario, but I have to. The left-wing reaction to Charlie Kirk’s assassination made it abundantly clear that far too many leftists want to see us shot to death in front of our children. The left-wing reaction to Virginia politician Jay Jones’s text messages made it equally clear that far too many leftists want to see our children shot to death in front of us. We’re not yet at Second Civil War, but it sure feels like we’ve arrived at a sequel to Bleeding Kansas. If a Second Civil War does break out, it’s another scenario where things get much worse, and then become wildly unpredictable.

6. The Same Old Shit. As 4Chan says, “nothing ever happens.” Things could continue to just slowly, painfully, hopelessly unwind for decades. America could stagnate and decline, becoming a Third World country without a truly catastrophic war, revolution, or collapse. (As for AI in this scenario, maybe there’s AI but nobody can afford it because electricity prices go up 500%. Maybe it’s all actually Indian contractors typing sycophantically in real time. Whatever the case it doesn’t save us or kill us.) In this scenario, things will get worse, but slowly, with small wins here and there followed by larger losses.

7. The Controlled Burn. What if there were a Plan B that doesn’t involve an AI Age of Abundance? We don’t have to assume stagnation and decline are inevitable. But we do have to accept that the problems we face (the 4 Ds: debt, demographics, de-industrialization, and diversity) won’t be easy to solve. Preventing forest fires requires controlled burns, destroying part of the woodland to save the rest. Likewise, preventing catastrophe at this point requires tough policy decisions. A lot of my writing on physiocracy has been “controlled burn” solutions so I’d be remiss to exclude this one. In a controlled burn scenario, things will get worse, maybe a lot worse, but then they’ll start to get better over years and decades.

8. The Age of Disclosure. What if non-human intelligent life is not only real but hugely relevant to the future? Perhaps 31/ATLAS is some sort of alien spaceship. Perhaps the upcoming film THE AGE OF DISCLOURE is the first step towards revealing the truth that’s out there. We might soon see unexpected technology, alien invasion, and/or Project Bluebeam. In this scenario, things will get weird, and then they’ll get even weirder.

All right, that last scenario isn’t really a plausible scenario by the usual standards of plausibility. But if I didn’t mention it, it’s the one that would actually happen.

So which one is the most plausible? I started to write out estimates. A year ago I’d definitely have offered you estimates. But right now I’m not even sure what to guess. As I’ve reached the end of this essay, I find myself in a post-credulous state of mind. Our world has become such a bizarre science-fiction show that everything seems at once absolutely outlandish and tiresomely predictable.

If I woke up tomorrow and read that Al Qaeda terrorists had used ChatGPT to create a powerful bioweapon that destroyed Washington DC, I’d think “yah, I guess that tracks.” I wouldn’t be surprised, I’d just be skeptical it was really Al Qaeda. If I read that Ilya Sutskever had come out of stealth mode to announce he had created Artificial Superintelligence and was starting a new religion to worship it, I’d think “yah, I sort of expected that” and go browse X to see which celebrities had joined. Hell, if the Pope held a joint press conference with James Cameron to reveal that extraterrestrials are actually demons from Marianna’s Trench and Cameron had one in his submarine, I’d just shrug, because I’ve already read Mark Bisone’s substack so I knew that was coming.

Therefore I can only conclude that each of the above scenarios is between 1% and 99% likely to occur within the next 5 minutes to 5 years. I’ll should try to refine those predictions in the weeks and months ahead.