The USA's ruling class has been on a wild bender these past few decades, with their incompetence and criminal corruption rising to unprecedented heights since the scamdemic started. They're like the leadership of late-stage Enron, with a lot of smoke-and-mirrors accounting to enable their recklessness and debauchery. Will this be the year it all comes apart? We'll see.
One thing is for sure, the longer the party goes on, the worse the hangover will be, and this party has been going on since the Johnson Administration, though back then it was relatively quiet affair, with all the really sordid details kept out of the public eye. With the Brandon's Administration, it's like they started livestreaming themselves smoking crack with strippers and chugging Jaeger straight from the bottle. I don't think their party can go on much longer, and they have run up an unpayable tab by this point. Whether it happens in 2023 or not, the aftermath is going to be ugly for all of us, not just these criminal retards who took the greatest economy the world had ever known (post WWII America) and ran it straight into the sewer.
I'm predicting it'll start falling apart in either 2023 or 2024. If we make it through 2024 with the petrodollar unscathed, then I'll lose my bet with myself on this!
I think you're right about 2024. Things are probably gonna be ugly with the Presidential election. The GOP Presidential nominee is likely going to be either DeSantis or Trump, each of whom is guaranteed to make the Left lose what little sanity they still have, and the Great American Empire's (GAE) ruling class will be so busy trying to make sure neither Trump nor DeSantis crash their party that they won't have any resources left to spend on China or Russia, both of which will probably use that window of opportunity to expand their spheres of influence at the GAE's expense. (Not to mention, if China and Russia conduct influence operations among the American public during the run-up to the election, they will have an easy time of it.) A lot of chickens will probably be coming home to roost that year (if we make it through 2023).
It's not beyond the realms of fantasy that the US has some kind of civil breakup by 2024. We are already seeing peaceful signs of this now with Red border states increasingly taking their own action against illegal immigration. Also, the Left's efforts to take out Trump are going to get so insane that these may well spark off some kind of counter-reaction.
We still think we're the "international community". We ain't. Europe and the US are only around 10% of the global population, and that population wants some of the action. The amount of activity concerning the BRICS is increasing almost weekly: Medvedev meeting the Chinese, Xi visiting the Saudis, new trade deals, pipelines, supply routes. The world is becoming multipolar before our very eyes.
Dec 29, 2022·edited Dec 29, 2022Liked by Tree of Woe
Another reason the US will lose a war is that the corruption and totalitarianism of our ruling regime (Clown World, the Empire of Lies, the Cathedral, whatever you want to call it) has been clearly revealed, and will continue to be revealed. It's now obvious that democracy is a sham and that free speech is a lie, and that we have no real say in our own governance as our ruling class shoves woke insanity down our throats to weaken American society even further and to give its rule an illusion of "moral" justification.
This is a large part of why military recruitment is down. Young men of fighting age who love their country and wish to defend it no longer wish to join, because they can see that it's no longer their country and way of life that the military is defending, but rather the hegemony of a tyrannical and illegitimate regime that hates them and is actively working to destroy their country and way of life from within by pushing CRT and pronouns and child grooming and all the rest of the woke cult's madness on them. And they know that "military readiness" has largely been replaced by DEI lectures and brainwashing in the evils of their own "whiteness" that they find intolerable.
And those relatively few people who are still going into the military are disproportionately woke progressives. You can't successfully run a lemonade stand with such people, much less win a war.
Myself, I'd never fight for the US empire in a world war (were I still of fighting age), precisely BECAUSE I love my country, and the only hope for America in its essence to survive and be restored is for the present ruling regime to be toppled one way or another. Hell, if we DID have a world war and lose, I'd go so far as to help the victor (regardless of who) round up the members of our present ruling class to be executed if I had the opportunity to do so, because justice is long overdue for them and can't be procured in the illegitimate regime they have created.
You have a great point here. After at least 7 years of 'orange man bad', 'america bad', 'trans black lives good - all others bad', 'america is a colonialist racist homophobic pit' ... now pick up a rifle and get killed to ensure American Victory!! - that's a tough sell. Particularly to a younger phone addled population. Particularly if you look at the racial demographics of those who join the military.
A few people will fall for it, but I don't think enough to cause a dent in the diseased husk they've turned American sentiment into. I work with teens in the Bad Neighborhood, and the numbers rushing to the recruitment office will be small. The incentives they'll have to offer will have to be insanely great - and unsustainable.
It looks like another layer of Clown World Fail to me.
"It's now obvious that democracy is a sham and that free speech is a lie, and that we have no real say in our own governance as our ruling class shoves woke insanity down our throats to weaken American society even further and to give its rule an illusion of "moral" justification."
It is obvious to *some*, but the majority will actively work hard to avoid seeing the obvious. All you need to confirm this is to watch half the Republican Party support the "vote harderer, we'll get them the next time" fantasy. And that's just on our side of the divide.
The left is, of course, all in on their own fantasies about white supremacist Trump insurrectionist devils being the only problem standing between them and a Marxist nirvana from sea to shining sea.
In the end, recognizing reality has always resulted in large amounts of cognitive dissonance among the majority of Americans. It is called the American Dream for a reason, though probably not the reason most people think.
The bottom line here is that our current situation is so malign that most Americans will do everything they possibly can to avoid recognizing it. First, because it frightens them terribly, and second because, if they do recognize it, they might have to try to do something about it. And that is simply beyond their ken.
The Prince has already been formally put on notice that he is on the list of considered targets for “regime change”.
This btw is why he was made Prime minister of the kingdom: so that he has an added layer of clout defending him from getting knifed by the CIA and deep state in general!
A key point you missed during your (quite good) analysis. It seems like Wall Street, the fed and the treasury are all aware of the risks to the Petrodollar system and are at least taking some steps to mitigate the risks:
Central Bank Digital Currencies and
The slow dispossession of housing from middle american owners to middle american renters.
Central Bank digital currencies are way too complex to discuss here and my knowledge in them is limited, so I will skip them.
The slow dispossession of housing. Blackrock and its ilk financing the conversion of housing stock from single family owners to single family renters is by now well known to the readers of this blog. I postulate that the reason this process is occurring is because traditionally, once a note on the house was paid off, the asset disappeared from the market because, well someone now owned it outright. This wealth would be passed down to the children (who would usually just sell it and split the proceeds among themselves to help finance their own homes).
For Wall Street though, when the note was paid off, the asset disappeared from the market and no money was transferred to Wall Street because well, the occupant now owned it. This has the effect of reducing the available number of things for dollars to chase. Same amount of dollars chasing fewer things means inflation.
If you convert Americans from owners to renters, this presents a number of advantages to our Ruling Class:
1. The drive for economies of scale will cause the property holding companies to consolidate into perhaps 2-4 mega-companies. This small number of companies is much easier to regulate and manage than millions of independent owner-occupiers. Elizabeth Warren's wettest of wet dreams. "Smart" thermostats will start appearing in all of the houses and if EW decides that your house is too warm in the winter or too cool in the summer, there is not much you can do about it. Want that gas grill? Too bad.
2. These mega corporations are going to be publicly listed so their equity stakes can be traded, because of the way finance works (Treasury Securities are used as collateral for stock purchases by brokerage houses), the more assets listed on the stock exchange, the more opportunities for Treasury Securities to be used as collateral, driving up demand for them.
3. Reduced risk for financial institutions. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage issued when interest rates are 1-3% stay at a low level for the duration of the mortgage, if interest rates rise, the house payment stays the same, pinching bank profits pretty hard. If a 30-year fixed rate mortgage issued when interest rates are high can be reduced by refinancing, reducing an occupant's monthly payment further cutting into bank profits. Now that everyone is renting, your rents can be increased annually, and more importantly, never decreased at all.
That was a good read, thanks for sharing. I am not sure if a newly entrenched America would actually be a good thing, given the state of American culture, so I am not sure whether to hope he is right or wrong. Mixed bag, I guess.
Dec 29, 2022·edited Dec 29, 2022Liked by Tree of Woe
Interesting Read!
Though as someone familiar with Martyanov et al's works (in particular, his trilogy); I see no merit in the "America is stronger than ever before" crowd. As Andrei himself would say rather bluntly: "The US LOST the Arms Race, and did so decisively". I too (upon finishing said trilogy) am convinced of that, and do not take seriously any IR-derived theories and models that point to greater hegemonic prowess and whatnot developing in CONUS.
Martyanov is nothing more than a Russian propogandist. I've only read "Losing Military Supremacy" and wanted to like it very much. Honestly it is not the least bit convincing. Lots of Russian patriotism cloaked with random bits of tech jargon. Can't believe you were convinced.
Dec 29, 2022·edited Dec 29, 2022Liked by Tree of Woe
In terms of C4ISR (and the various extensions of the concept) Martyanov is definitely a pioneer, there can be no debate there. The mathematical models (especially the ones he covers in "The Real Revolution in Military Affairs") I found to be sound and compelling. No doubt the man is a Russian Patriot; but I see that as secondary to aforementioned modelling. His revisions to contemporary RMA are also pretty airtight if we "check the numbers" so to speak.
Think of it this way: The "alternative" (if we can call it that) to Andrei would be IR theory and the various "models" said folks come up with. These are the same people (i.e. The Mersheimers and whatnot of the world) who have little to no mathematical prowess, nor have succeeded in predicting anything noteworthy (especially when we look at the CIA folks who studied IR) in the 20th century that was relevant to US interests (be it the Iran hostage crisis, The Six Day War, etc).
If the "alternative" is that impotent, then we can (using Abductive Reasoning) simply say that on the balance of probabilities, the Truth will likely tilt more in Andrei and the "new"-RMA folks' favour, regardless of their individual proclivities (or lack thereof) toward specific nation states.
Besides, I have always found IR to be a "fake field" anyhow since scientifically speaking, it cannot properly even demarcate its own field of study (always a red flag whenever that happens for any field). Reading the likes of Brezinski, Kissinger, etc; I would argue to you that said individuals:
1) Are more "ideologically biased" than Andrei.
2) Their models are far weaker (for the reasons noted earlier)
3) Their expertise (in mathematics and whatnot) can be put in question.
Case in point: Just look at the "End of History" nonsense that Fukuyama derived from his mentor Huntington! Utter drivel; especially when you check Huntington's own "Clash of Civilizations" and (upon closer inspection) note that many of its starting assumptions regarding "History and Historical progression" are unsound.
I commend the author for having the guts to publish what others have also said both privately and publicly - and yesterday, I archived Saker's Most Important Question: Will we make it to December 31, 2023?
You obviously noted the last several posts in what I call DaLimbraw Library - https://crushlimbraw.blogspot.com/2016/03/what-is-this-blog-archive-all-about-cl.html?m=0 - started in 2015 primarily because I had difficulty finding supporting evidence for alternative thinking through standard mainstream research sources, being that they're largely establishment propaganda.
So essentially it's my tool for extensive research as I've collected over 8000 posts almost all authored by people from whom I have read and learned from. All I do is connect dots. It's available to anyone.
Your comment about most Americans is so true - they fall into that vast middle ground of knowledge - what Vox Day calls midwits. I have compared it to the Bell curve (I believe was originally created regarding intelligence) - where that majority of 68% gets its knowledge as you described. I apply it any body or category of knowledge.
What's even worse, if your own knowledge gathering puts you in the extreme knowledgeable group - usually a small 2 % at best - being two or more standard deviations away from midwit - it's almost impossible to communicate. As Vox Day further says, they will not only NOT believe you....they don’t even understand.
As Jesus said....broad is the way to perdition. Hosea also said: "My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge!" - and he was addressing the priests. I have said now for years.....when DaPulpits dispense pabulum- DaPews remain infantile children. Hebrews 5:11-6:2
At a high level I’ve been betting on this for some time. Russia seems to be pretty clearly saying “ending the dollar as world reserve currency is our goal.” Totally agree that “things are bad because of the war” is a much more sellable argument than “things are bad because your leadership has failed miserably.”
One piece of this that doesn’t make sense for me is whether China really wants its property values to go up. I thought Xi Jinping would prefer property values go down, to help ease his demographic crisis.
China could manipulate the way in which petroyuan recycling occurs to avoid property price increase. Ban foreign purchase of real estate, require it go towards new housing, etc. I don't think it'll be a dealbreaker for him, especially with his aging population.
While it is certainly true that the Saudis have decided to pivot to Eurasia; it is highly unlikely that them "formalizing" said pivot (and inking the deal with the Chinese) will do much.
Recall that as of typing this up, the Saudis already export more than double to China what they do with the US (I believe the number is about daily half a million barrels to the latter and over a million daily to the former); so it would just be a formalizing of "the rift" that has already been developing these past few decades or so. The USD Milkshake will shake this off most likely.
Since unlike the 70s when the Saudis played a leadership role amongst the Muslim nations... nowadays they are viewed by the grassroots as pariahs (the brutal invasion of Yemen has helped cement these feelings). As such, bedding the Chinese will not prompt the OPEC nations to dive into the petroyuan or "rublegas" en masse (akin to how they did so into the USD back in the 70s.)
The Americans produce about two-thirds of their daily needs (i.e. around 20 billion barrels). Of the 6-8 billon shortfall, some 4 billion daily is imported from the Canadians and the rest made up via imports from OPEC+ and others. The "Conquest of America" can never become a reality thus without large scale sabotage, EMP attacks, etc to "open up the gates" from within the Fortress of CONUS.
As such I see the "Petrodollar" surviving (and it likely will continue to do so for a while longer) precisely because the "Multipolar world" that the Eurasianists are selling... is stillborn. Namely, the nations of the world recognize the coming age of Great Power conflict, and are not under the impression that siding with Eurasia would somehow imply a "peaceful way" out of that.
More likely what will happen in 2023 is that the Eurasian bloc (be it BRICS+, The Eurasian Economic Union, etc.) will swell in membership (formal and informal) and the position of "Fortress CONUS" will decline further. Sabotage on the power grid (already a common occurrence on both coasts) will rapidly increase as the Eurasians probe evermore for "weak links" to exploit.
Meanwhile, The Ukraine will be partitioned and the Russians will move heavy equipment to the new "NATO border" (i.e. with Ukraine AND Finland), whilst also dialing up the pain (more restrictions of gas and oil exports to the West, greater export volumes eastward, etc.). Poland, Hungary, etc. will "bite off" chunks from the rump Banderistan and that will end any illusions of "European Unity".
The Chinese will activate their sleepers in Mexico and Central America and did what the British did in the early 1800s: Dump Cheap Drugs everywhere and decimate the family unit in CONUS and "create demand" such that cashflow out of CONUS accelerates evermore (along with labor outflows as well). Taiwan at this point will be "peacefully" reunited via a Diplomatic Play.
The Taiwanese will likely not fight back (due to sabotage, propaganda, sleepers being activated, etc.) It would be similar to the "Little Green Men" incident of 2014 whereby Crimea was annexed (i.e. rapid deployment of special ops and sleepers) except on a larger scale. This will end the Unipolar moment with a mundane finality. The move then (i.e. from early 2024 and beyond) is straightforward:
Turn America into a scapegoat. European Unity, now dead from the Polish and Hungarian incidents... would implode, and NATO + The EU would be tossed into the dustbin of history. The "Values"-nation that is the US would at this point be made into a pariah and play the role of a future Homo Sacer.
It will likely be some false flag akin to the Marco Polo Bridge incident... but most likely some event of said calibre would be "invented" by the Eurasians to justify an International "UN-army" (basically a Eurasian coalition) intervening in CONUS to "restore the peace".
This would be the outbreak of hostilities... and every sleeper, traitor, etc. would now come into full bloom. It will take a while (a decade or even a decade and a half) to pacify the Yankee, but it will be done. And once the Salting is completed, the women and children violated and drugged into genetic slavery and whatnot; then comes the final pursuit: rewriting the History Book.
For the Eurasian coalition will not stop until ever mention of "The United States of America" ever made from henceforth, is done so via spitting and cursing their name (moreso than Nazi Germany and other past losers) and so that said name is never again uttered in certain circles (i.e. such as "education"/indoctrination circles of the Next Generation of workers drones).
I think you are under-estimating the gravity of a petroyuan challenge to the USD. This excites me because it's a rare moment for me to be *MORE* pessimistic than you.
"Recall that as of typing this up, the Saudis already export more than double to China what they do with the US". That's correct, but right now that export is priced in dollars. China consumes 12M barrels, produces 4M barrels, and imports 8M barrels of oil a day. The US consumes 20M barrels, produces 12M barrels, and imports 8M barrels of oil a day.
The world as a whole consumes 98M barrels of oil a day. The world as a whole imports and exports 42M barrels of oil a day. At present, the US dollar commands 80% of oil transactions, or 34M barrels per day.
Trade between Russia and China is 1.6M barrels per day. Of China's oil imports, approximately 1.6M are in petroyuan (from Russia) and the other 7.4M are in dollars. Saudi Arabia is China's #1 supplier of oil and the #1 exporter of oil.
If just Saudi Arabia agrees to sell oil to China for petroyuan, the petroyuan will now be backed by 8M barrels per day while the petrodollar will still be backed by 26M barrels per day. That would be a sharp blow, reducing the dollar's share to 61% of oil trade. However -- and perhaps this is where we disagree -- it seems likely that the many countries which do more trade with China than they do with the US would also be happy to use petroyuan, and that the many oil exporters who sell more to China than US would, as well.
Since hypothetical musings are weak sauce, I'll offer a hard number, I'll predict that the dollar's share of world oil transactions will have declined from 80% to 61% by the end of 2023 and to 50% by the end of 2024. I'll be happy if I'm wrong!
Dec 29, 2022·edited Dec 29, 2022Liked by Tree of Woe
You are certainly far more pessimistic on this important issue than myself, and you bring up some compelling arguments (which I failed to consider). Thank You for that!
I think especially so your point regarding the 34 million barrels priced in USD (of which the Saudis pitch in some 6-7 million) is quite relevant.
The question of course that needs answering (and we can only wait and see due to lacking access to the leaderships' thought process) is... To What scope and scale are the Saudis willing to reprice their exports?
I don't see how a man as ambitious, wily and cunning as Prince Salman (at this point, de facto ruler of the Saudi state) would risk his head (literally and figuratively) going fully in bed with the Chinese. Keeping one's options open is key (especially since the Americans have made it clear to him that "regime change" is on the table).
Even if for argument's sake the Prince exceeds expectations and reprices some 80%+ of Saudi Oil exports into yuan and/or rubles... would the Global South (especially OPEC+) follow suit? Ethiopia et al (who are not even relevant in world energy markets as a producer) have already been warned with the Tigray rebellion.
Ultimately I think Human Nature (and Universals regarding how it operates) is key. One can certainly *Prefer* to affiliate one way; but nevertheless not fully commit (or even commit at all) due to lingering (and well founded mind you) fears regarding blowback, subterfuge, etc.
The Americans would have to "do a Wilhelm" type blunder (recall the Tangiers incident and the ensuing Morocco crisis of 1905-06 which made the then German Empire a pariah on the international scene) such that these OPEC members would decide that:
"Regardless of the American blowback and regime change dangers; sticking with them is even more dangerous given how Nutty they are!"
The "Collective Biden" (because let's face it... it's an oligarchic cabal who are puppeteering him) have yet to make such a massive blunder. They would have to "Whip to Death a Slave so Bad that the rest of the Slaves all rise in revolt without fear of the Whip". That has yet to happen; at least I don't see it in 2023; but I could certainly be wrong about that!
Addendum: Thank You as well for not "merely musing hypothetically" and putting in some hard numbers for predictive purposes. Definitely will bookmark this page and come back to it in hindsight!
Very good points. I think Saudi Arabia is in a very delicate position. They were a partner of the petrodollar system but the US is not honoring the aliance anymore, since long ago. In blunt terms, they may calculate that if SA become some kind of failed state, China will lose much more than US.
It's less about them becoming a "failed state" and more about the Prince saving his own Hide. It's actually very simple (and even a cursory look at Human Nature will likewise yield this conclusion):
He wants to Preserve his own position. As a wily Autocrat, that comes first and foremost BEYOND all other secondary considerations (be it "making the Saudi state more prosperous" and whatnot). Let us remember also that the Modern Saudi State was born in Betrayal: Only with betraying their Ottoman masters did the Nejdi province then become an illegitimate "Kingdom".
In general (we can flip the pages of the history books for this), nations born in rebellion (such as the Americans) have a starkly different character and set of pursuant "national virtues" which animate the body politick than do nations born in *Betrayal*. The Saudi state of today is in the latter camp.
Even if the Americans become overbearing, callous and more "unilateral", why on earth would a nation born out of betrayal seek out a "New partner" unless said Partner can once more facilitate a betrayal? China is not a military hegemon; at least not yet. Why ought the Prince (descended from Betrayers) to side with them thus when they don't even "carry the bigger stick"?
Certainly that is very possible. How *probable* it is that they decide to do so... that really depends on how "facts on the ground" develop with the passage of time.
One thing that could happen (again, this depends heavily on how the "facts on the ground" take shape) is that the Russians supply Chinese Subs with Zircon missiles. Such a move would *certainly* lead to war in the pacific, since the Zircon easily breaches the 800 mile radius "zone" of every aircraft carrier out there. The US would be forced to intervene thus.
Because Chinese subs possessing said tech would mean the umbrella projected over Taiwan by any Carrier battlegroup... is rendered moot. They would be compelled to "act now"... or forever lose influence and capability overall to aid and abet Taiwan.
Thank you. I dont know much about Saudi Arabia. But what are the options of the Prince? Is he not in a similar position as Kadafi, of Libya, in 2011 ? I believe Kadafi would do anything to appease the USA. He was destroyed the same.
Dec 30, 2022·edited Dec 30, 2022Liked by Tree of Woe
The Prince has more options because of significant Saudi soft power overseas (something which Gaddafi lacked). The Americans cant outright murder him therefore since said sleepers would activate and run amok. Assassinations, collaborations with Iran, etc. would exponentially increase until we get an Israel war (where state actors and non state actors alike would pitch in), and it will be of a sort we have never witnessed before:
Namely, one where the Iron dome is breached via a combination of Iranian drones and Supersonics. At that point, a place like Tel Aviv does not even "need to be nuked", it would just be a Dresden v2.0. Non-state actors would then roll in, twist the Knife into Caesar (i.e. Israel) and it will be over. It is this outcome which unnerves policy makers and prevents outright regime change in the Kingdom.
As such, the Prince is a far more dangerous man. Because he actually has sufficient clout, soft power, etc. from his sleepers and proxies to have a small degree of "freedom" when it comes to interacting with the Hegemon (i.e. the Americans). This makes him more unpredictable and less "useful" overall. He is no longer an asset, but a liability; one which cannot just be "disappeared".
Whether or not the Saudis accept yuan or not, they have a military based on US arms, and as we are learning in Ukraine, US arms are pretty kick ass. (And this holds even if we discount the Pollyanna projections of the US media and we accept most of the Putin cheerleaders. The objective fact is that Ukraine has held back a Russian invasion using US weaponry despite no long term training in such, and despite not getting our best stuff.)
If they drop the petrodollar arrangement, the Saudis would indeed invest less in US financial instruments. But they would still like dollars to buy our weapons, which are not only potent, but that's what they have. It took Iran a LONG time to wean itself from US weapons parts dependency.
But is investing in China really that good a deal? Our gerontocracy favors investors over workers and consumers. This makes the US a good place to park your cash. We are Switzerland with nukes.
And how much of our trade deficit is real? Our tariff rates are far lower than our combination of income and payroll taxes. For example, Apple pays royalties to a bunch of sheep in a minor British Isle for intellectual property developed in California.
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Should your prediction become correct I fear:
1. Even more foreign buying up of US real estate and once great corporations.
2. A price surge on the cheap Chinese stuff I buy on Amazon.
If I had money to invest, I'd stockpile Chinese made merch, not gold. This is a variant of John Pugsly's "Alpha Strategy" from back in the day.
I don't fear a long term surge in energy prices. We are one election away from regaining energy independence. (And let us keep in mind, that Peace through Dirty Energy was Jimmy Carter's policy.) We do not need Saudi Arabia for energy. We need Saudi Arabia to help finance our defense industry.
I fear that some of your assumptions may not be entirely correct, especially "The objective fact is that Ukraine has held back a Russian invasion using US weaponry despite no long term training in such, and despite not getting our best stuff."
Several possibilities mitigate against the objective factuality of the statement. First, all of the reports (and videos, and other evidence) we have seen that much of the US weaponry is being operated by the US military at second or third hand (contractors, Polish military in plain clothes, etc.). Second, the idea that the invasion was held back by Ukraine rather than Russia. I expect that proposition will receive real-world testing in the near future.
Even so. US weapons worked enough to thwart what was once the mightiest ground force on earth.
True, the old Soviet Union once included Ukraine.
Still, unless you are defending yourself against China, US arms look pretty darned good. Not good enough to thoroughly crush a determined local militia, as in Afghanistan. But good enough to thwart a bigger invader.
Saudi Arabia can feel pretty secure against an Iranian invasion using US arms + "advisors".
Russia may win yet. That's not what I'm contending. I'm only pointing out that their initial advance got bogged down and pushed back significantly, using our second tier weapons.
4 provinces have been annexed (that's 6-8 million people). Add in Crimea from 8 years back... that's basically a 1/4 of the country.
Western media is trying to say "Russia is bogged down" to mean that the entire country (the size of Texas and having some 40 million people) has not been overrun. If one's "success" condition is that paltry... that means the situation is as grim as it gets.
Let's be realistic and honest here: The Russians have chosen to not firebomb Ukraine and level it (for a variety of reasons). A nation that has the Smerch system (and several other related ones) does not need to use its nukes to butcher millions of people.
The American mindset here is one of denial. Its not "our second rate weapons systems are bogging them down" but rather "they CHOOSE to not deploy their first rate systems and would rather 'capture it all whole' ".
For sure. This is why I give REAL predictions and not namby-pamby "40% chance of blah blah" that say nothing. My track record on predictions has been spotty (predicted Trump in '16, predicted Trump wouldn't start any wars '16-'20, mis-predicted outcome of 2020 election, mis-predicted Supreme Court response) but it's at least candid and evaluable.
And I have *generally* found that those who "always" find something to be the case do so only by ignoring those cases that do not fit their search pattern.
By crashtime, our biodiesel and biofuel (fermented kasava-derived alcohol) industry should have been launched and our solar-powerd water pumps and comfort fans should deliver us paradise on earth. By this time we hope that Russia and China will have forced the US to claw back its military machine from American colonies in the southern hemisphere, which means our US-owned politicians will be defenceless. This will precipitate a whole new segment of the public entertainment industry, mass freedom and justice celebrations, and we hope to corner the market in natural fibre noose production.
As woe wants, woe gets. The first volume is languishing with the first fearful publisher, 'The Lost Track'. Once I have written the movie version I'll commence the sequel. Half the story line has yet to play, out in the near future. Fear of terminal reprisals by Rupert Murdoch is keeping it off the shelves thus far. Spineless buffoons. Nevertheless, the PDF version is available free to anyone who wants it. Kiriakou liked it.
What I offer has 60 years of dedicated research behind it. Ask, on tonyryan43@gmail.com and the book is yours. And yes, Murdoch has tried to kill me a few times so far but card-carrying assassins out here stick out like dogs balls. Everybody is black and a little partisan towards me as I am family to thousands. That is their only value system, being tribal. Thus Murdoch's nervous minions fumble the ball every time.
I also have a plan to bring down the NWO elite master plan, but I think I may have told too many people because the army jumped with both feet on some independent allies.
The notions some of the "thought leaders" in said movement played around with (I am thinking Naess et el in the 70s with regard to "Deep Ecology") are as Demonic as they come. Several decades on, the concepts have transferred onto the masses in a more dilute form (platitudes such as "don't hunt the whales" and whatnot).
But the original renderings of these ideas are demonic. And it is available for all to read, identify, recognize and realize overall.
Also a good reminder that our rules aren't evil geniuses, but a coalition of corrupt, and frequently stupid, interests that often work at cross purposes.
I agree that the conscripts have good intentions. However those that fund the "green movement" might call them useful idiots and have no good intentions whatever.
Most of the green movement's funding comes from a combination of true believers and people extorted by said true believers, with a smattering from Russian and possibly Chinese sources.
I indeed agree with you. The outcomes domestically-culturally though, I am very frightened of. This because, in my own conversations with people they cannot even fathom the idea that the dollar wouldn't reign supreme. To them it is an unthinkable, they are unaware of any historical currency crisis. Thus whatever comes they will not see it coming. Two books of interest are P. D. James's Children of Men, and Jane Jacobs's Dark Age Ahead. Children of Men is a fictional dystopia where all men go sterile in 1996, and the panic that follows. Mass state sponsored suicide is featured in the book, and I think across the West if we have massive recession this will ensue. Take away bread, circus, and security and the average American (or anyone dragged with us) is in for a sad surprise. Dark Age Ahead, is nonfiction, Jacobs who was a city planner goes over the various way that the modern West is just not really sustainable. She covers from education to taxation, this is book I keep going back to. Anyway, I know that was a bit of a spew, but I do appreciate your work.
The USA's ruling class has been on a wild bender these past few decades, with their incompetence and criminal corruption rising to unprecedented heights since the scamdemic started. They're like the leadership of late-stage Enron, with a lot of smoke-and-mirrors accounting to enable their recklessness and debauchery. Will this be the year it all comes apart? We'll see.
One thing is for sure, the longer the party goes on, the worse the hangover will be, and this party has been going on since the Johnson Administration, though back then it was relatively quiet affair, with all the really sordid details kept out of the public eye. With the Brandon's Administration, it's like they started livestreaming themselves smoking crack with strippers and chugging Jaeger straight from the bottle. I don't think their party can go on much longer, and they have run up an unpayable tab by this point. Whether it happens in 2023 or not, the aftermath is going to be ugly for all of us, not just these criminal retards who took the greatest economy the world had ever known (post WWII America) and ran it straight into the sewer.
I'm predicting it'll start falling apart in either 2023 or 2024. If we make it through 2024 with the petrodollar unscathed, then I'll lose my bet with myself on this!
I think you're right about 2024. Things are probably gonna be ugly with the Presidential election. The GOP Presidential nominee is likely going to be either DeSantis or Trump, each of whom is guaranteed to make the Left lose what little sanity they still have, and the Great American Empire's (GAE) ruling class will be so busy trying to make sure neither Trump nor DeSantis crash their party that they won't have any resources left to spend on China or Russia, both of which will probably use that window of opportunity to expand their spheres of influence at the GAE's expense. (Not to mention, if China and Russia conduct influence operations among the American public during the run-up to the election, they will have an easy time of it.) A lot of chickens will probably be coming home to roost that year (if we make it through 2023).
It's not beyond the realms of fantasy that the US has some kind of civil breakup by 2024. We are already seeing peaceful signs of this now with Red border states increasingly taking their own action against illegal immigration. Also, the Left's efforts to take out Trump are going to get so insane that these may well spark off some kind of counter-reaction.
We still think we're the "international community". We ain't. Europe and the US are only around 10% of the global population, and that population wants some of the action. The amount of activity concerning the BRICS is increasing almost weekly: Medvedev meeting the Chinese, Xi visiting the Saudis, new trade deals, pipelines, supply routes. The world is becoming multipolar before our very eyes.
Sino-Russian "Freedom of Navigation" exercises near the Golden Gate Bridge incoming? Or is that far too soon in the 2023-24 timeframe?
China could always use the rationale that they're just visiting one of their colonies.
We have already had that honour (/s) in Canada:
https://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/chinese-warships-arrive-for-port-visit-on-west-coast/
Can you imagine.... well YOU can, but most people can't!
Another reason the US will lose a war is that the corruption and totalitarianism of our ruling regime (Clown World, the Empire of Lies, the Cathedral, whatever you want to call it) has been clearly revealed, and will continue to be revealed. It's now obvious that democracy is a sham and that free speech is a lie, and that we have no real say in our own governance as our ruling class shoves woke insanity down our throats to weaken American society even further and to give its rule an illusion of "moral" justification.
This is a large part of why military recruitment is down. Young men of fighting age who love their country and wish to defend it no longer wish to join, because they can see that it's no longer their country and way of life that the military is defending, but rather the hegemony of a tyrannical and illegitimate regime that hates them and is actively working to destroy their country and way of life from within by pushing CRT and pronouns and child grooming and all the rest of the woke cult's madness on them. And they know that "military readiness" has largely been replaced by DEI lectures and brainwashing in the evils of their own "whiteness" that they find intolerable.
And those relatively few people who are still going into the military are disproportionately woke progressives. You can't successfully run a lemonade stand with such people, much less win a war.
Myself, I'd never fight for the US empire in a world war (were I still of fighting age), precisely BECAUSE I love my country, and the only hope for America in its essence to survive and be restored is for the present ruling regime to be toppled one way or another. Hell, if we DID have a world war and lose, I'd go so far as to help the victor (regardless of who) round up the members of our present ruling class to be executed if I had the opportunity to do so, because justice is long overdue for them and can't be procured in the illegitimate regime they have created.
You have a great point here. After at least 7 years of 'orange man bad', 'america bad', 'trans black lives good - all others bad', 'america is a colonialist racist homophobic pit' ... now pick up a rifle and get killed to ensure American Victory!! - that's a tough sell. Particularly to a younger phone addled population. Particularly if you look at the racial demographics of those who join the military.
A few people will fall for it, but I don't think enough to cause a dent in the diseased husk they've turned American sentiment into. I work with teens in the Bad Neighborhood, and the numbers rushing to the recruitment office will be small. The incentives they'll have to offer will have to be insanely great - and unsustainable.
It looks like another layer of Clown World Fail to me.
"It's now obvious that democracy is a sham and that free speech is a lie, and that we have no real say in our own governance as our ruling class shoves woke insanity down our throats to weaken American society even further and to give its rule an illusion of "moral" justification."
It is obvious to *some*, but the majority will actively work hard to avoid seeing the obvious. All you need to confirm this is to watch half the Republican Party support the "vote harderer, we'll get them the next time" fantasy. And that's just on our side of the divide.
The left is, of course, all in on their own fantasies about white supremacist Trump insurrectionist devils being the only problem standing between them and a Marxist nirvana from sea to shining sea.
In the end, recognizing reality has always resulted in large amounts of cognitive dissonance among the majority of Americans. It is called the American Dream for a reason, though probably not the reason most people think.
The bottom line here is that our current situation is so malign that most Americans will do everything they possibly can to avoid recognizing it. First, because it frightens them terribly, and second because, if they do recognize it, they might have to try to do something about it. And that is simply beyond their ken.
Saudis have to be very careful. To avoid the emergence of petroyuan, US will not go after China, but Saudi Arabia itself.
The Prince has already been formally put on notice that he is on the list of considered targets for “regime change”.
This btw is why he was made Prime minister of the kingdom: so that he has an added layer of clout defending him from getting knifed by the CIA and deep state in general!
A key point you missed during your (quite good) analysis. It seems like Wall Street, the fed and the treasury are all aware of the risks to the Petrodollar system and are at least taking some steps to mitigate the risks:
Central Bank Digital Currencies and
The slow dispossession of housing from middle american owners to middle american renters.
Central Bank digital currencies are way too complex to discuss here and my knowledge in them is limited, so I will skip them.
The slow dispossession of housing. Blackrock and its ilk financing the conversion of housing stock from single family owners to single family renters is by now well known to the readers of this blog. I postulate that the reason this process is occurring is because traditionally, once a note on the house was paid off, the asset disappeared from the market because, well someone now owned it outright. This wealth would be passed down to the children (who would usually just sell it and split the proceeds among themselves to help finance their own homes).
For Wall Street though, when the note was paid off, the asset disappeared from the market and no money was transferred to Wall Street because well, the occupant now owned it. This has the effect of reducing the available number of things for dollars to chase. Same amount of dollars chasing fewer things means inflation.
If you convert Americans from owners to renters, this presents a number of advantages to our Ruling Class:
1. The drive for economies of scale will cause the property holding companies to consolidate into perhaps 2-4 mega-companies. This small number of companies is much easier to regulate and manage than millions of independent owner-occupiers. Elizabeth Warren's wettest of wet dreams. "Smart" thermostats will start appearing in all of the houses and if EW decides that your house is too warm in the winter or too cool in the summer, there is not much you can do about it. Want that gas grill? Too bad.
2. These mega corporations are going to be publicly listed so their equity stakes can be traded, because of the way finance works (Treasury Securities are used as collateral for stock purchases by brokerage houses), the more assets listed on the stock exchange, the more opportunities for Treasury Securities to be used as collateral, driving up demand for them.
3. Reduced risk for financial institutions. A 30-year fixed rate mortgage issued when interest rates are 1-3% stay at a low level for the duration of the mortgage, if interest rates rise, the house payment stays the same, pinching bank profits pretty hard. If a 30-year fixed rate mortgage issued when interest rates are high can be reduced by refinancing, reducing an occupant's monthly payment further cutting into bank profits. Now that everyone is renting, your rents can be increased annually, and more importantly, never decreased at all.
Thanks for this post. Really excellent thoughts.
An appreciated clarification, UP. I always wondered how that worked.
food for thought
https://niccolo.substack.com/p/turbo-america-is-beginning-to-resonate
That was a good read, thanks for sharing. I am not sure if a newly entrenched America would actually be a good thing, given the state of American culture, so I am not sure whether to hope he is right or wrong. Mixed bag, I guess.
Interesting Read!
Though as someone familiar with Martyanov et al's works (in particular, his trilogy); I see no merit in the "America is stronger than ever before" crowd. As Andrei himself would say rather bluntly: "The US LOST the Arms Race, and did so decisively". I too (upon finishing said trilogy) am convinced of that, and do not take seriously any IR-derived theories and models that point to greater hegemonic prowess and whatnot developing in CONUS.
Martyanov is nothing more than a Russian propogandist. I've only read "Losing Military Supremacy" and wanted to like it very much. Honestly it is not the least bit convincing. Lots of Russian patriotism cloaked with random bits of tech jargon. Can't believe you were convinced.
His books are an elaboration of the same tripe the Russian government elites have been pushing for at least a decade.
In terms of C4ISR (and the various extensions of the concept) Martyanov is definitely a pioneer, there can be no debate there. The mathematical models (especially the ones he covers in "The Real Revolution in Military Affairs") I found to be sound and compelling. No doubt the man is a Russian Patriot; but I see that as secondary to aforementioned modelling. His revisions to contemporary RMA are also pretty airtight if we "check the numbers" so to speak.
Think of it this way: The "alternative" (if we can call it that) to Andrei would be IR theory and the various "models" said folks come up with. These are the same people (i.e. The Mersheimers and whatnot of the world) who have little to no mathematical prowess, nor have succeeded in predicting anything noteworthy (especially when we look at the CIA folks who studied IR) in the 20th century that was relevant to US interests (be it the Iran hostage crisis, The Six Day War, etc).
If the "alternative" is that impotent, then we can (using Abductive Reasoning) simply say that on the balance of probabilities, the Truth will likely tilt more in Andrei and the "new"-RMA folks' favour, regardless of their individual proclivities (or lack thereof) toward specific nation states.
Besides, I have always found IR to be a "fake field" anyhow since scientifically speaking, it cannot properly even demarcate its own field of study (always a red flag whenever that happens for any field). Reading the likes of Brezinski, Kissinger, etc; I would argue to you that said individuals:
1) Are more "ideologically biased" than Andrei.
2) Their models are far weaker (for the reasons noted earlier)
3) Their expertise (in mathematics and whatnot) can be put in question.
Case in point: Just look at the "End of History" nonsense that Fukuyama derived from his mentor Huntington! Utter drivel; especially when you check Huntington's own "Clash of Civilizations" and (upon closer inspection) note that many of its starting assumptions regarding "History and Historical progression" are unsound.
I commend the author for having the guts to publish what others have also said both privately and publicly - and yesterday, I archived Saker's Most Important Question: Will we make it to December 31, 2023?
My archive - https://crushlimbraw.blogspot.com/?m=0
Great curation -- Saker, Romanoff, Kuntsler...! It's sad and depressing that so many Americans are only aware of the TV Networks and large newspapers.
You obviously noted the last several posts in what I call DaLimbraw Library - https://crushlimbraw.blogspot.com/2016/03/what-is-this-blog-archive-all-about-cl.html?m=0 - started in 2015 primarily because I had difficulty finding supporting evidence for alternative thinking through standard mainstream research sources, being that they're largely establishment propaganda.
So essentially it's my tool for extensive research as I've collected over 8000 posts almost all authored by people from whom I have read and learned from. All I do is connect dots. It's available to anyone.
Your comment about most Americans is so true - they fall into that vast middle ground of knowledge - what Vox Day calls midwits. I have compared it to the Bell curve (I believe was originally created regarding intelligence) - where that majority of 68% gets its knowledge as you described. I apply it any body or category of knowledge.
What's even worse, if your own knowledge gathering puts you in the extreme knowledgeable group - usually a small 2 % at best - being two or more standard deviations away from midwit - it's almost impossible to communicate. As Vox Day further says, they will not only NOT believe you....they don’t even understand.
As Jesus said....broad is the way to perdition. Hosea also said: "My people are destroyed for lack of knowledge!" - and he was addressing the priests. I have said now for years.....when DaPulpits dispense pabulum- DaPews remain infantile children. Hebrews 5:11-6:2
Don't get me started!
Thanks for the kind words! I am highly skilled in being cancelled for mentioning the emperor's poor apparel choices. :-D I'll check out your archive!
At a high level I’ve been betting on this for some time. Russia seems to be pretty clearly saying “ending the dollar as world reserve currency is our goal.” Totally agree that “things are bad because of the war” is a much more sellable argument than “things are bad because your leadership has failed miserably.”
One piece of this that doesn’t make sense for me is whether China really wants its property values to go up. I thought Xi Jinping would prefer property values go down, to help ease his demographic crisis.
Any thoughts there?
China could manipulate the way in which petroyuan recycling occurs to avoid property price increase. Ban foreign purchase of real estate, require it go towards new housing, etc. I don't think it'll be a dealbreaker for him, especially with his aging population.
While it is certainly true that the Saudis have decided to pivot to Eurasia; it is highly unlikely that them "formalizing" said pivot (and inking the deal with the Chinese) will do much.
Recall that as of typing this up, the Saudis already export more than double to China what they do with the US (I believe the number is about daily half a million barrels to the latter and over a million daily to the former); so it would just be a formalizing of "the rift" that has already been developing these past few decades or so. The USD Milkshake will shake this off most likely.
Since unlike the 70s when the Saudis played a leadership role amongst the Muslim nations... nowadays they are viewed by the grassroots as pariahs (the brutal invasion of Yemen has helped cement these feelings). As such, bedding the Chinese will not prompt the OPEC nations to dive into the petroyuan or "rublegas" en masse (akin to how they did so into the USD back in the 70s.)
The Americans produce about two-thirds of their daily needs (i.e. around 20 billion barrels). Of the 6-8 billon shortfall, some 4 billion daily is imported from the Canadians and the rest made up via imports from OPEC+ and others. The "Conquest of America" can never become a reality thus without large scale sabotage, EMP attacks, etc to "open up the gates" from within the Fortress of CONUS.
As such I see the "Petrodollar" surviving (and it likely will continue to do so for a while longer) precisely because the "Multipolar world" that the Eurasianists are selling... is stillborn. Namely, the nations of the world recognize the coming age of Great Power conflict, and are not under the impression that siding with Eurasia would somehow imply a "peaceful way" out of that.
More likely what will happen in 2023 is that the Eurasian bloc (be it BRICS+, The Eurasian Economic Union, etc.) will swell in membership (formal and informal) and the position of "Fortress CONUS" will decline further. Sabotage on the power grid (already a common occurrence on both coasts) will rapidly increase as the Eurasians probe evermore for "weak links" to exploit.
Meanwhile, The Ukraine will be partitioned and the Russians will move heavy equipment to the new "NATO border" (i.e. with Ukraine AND Finland), whilst also dialing up the pain (more restrictions of gas and oil exports to the West, greater export volumes eastward, etc.). Poland, Hungary, etc. will "bite off" chunks from the rump Banderistan and that will end any illusions of "European Unity".
The Chinese will activate their sleepers in Mexico and Central America and did what the British did in the early 1800s: Dump Cheap Drugs everywhere and decimate the family unit in CONUS and "create demand" such that cashflow out of CONUS accelerates evermore (along with labor outflows as well). Taiwan at this point will be "peacefully" reunited via a Diplomatic Play.
The Taiwanese will likely not fight back (due to sabotage, propaganda, sleepers being activated, etc.) It would be similar to the "Little Green Men" incident of 2014 whereby Crimea was annexed (i.e. rapid deployment of special ops and sleepers) except on a larger scale. This will end the Unipolar moment with a mundane finality. The move then (i.e. from early 2024 and beyond) is straightforward:
Turn America into a scapegoat. European Unity, now dead from the Polish and Hungarian incidents... would implode, and NATO + The EU would be tossed into the dustbin of history. The "Values"-nation that is the US would at this point be made into a pariah and play the role of a future Homo Sacer.
It will likely be some false flag akin to the Marco Polo Bridge incident... but most likely some event of said calibre would be "invented" by the Eurasians to justify an International "UN-army" (basically a Eurasian coalition) intervening in CONUS to "restore the peace".
This would be the outbreak of hostilities... and every sleeper, traitor, etc. would now come into full bloom. It will take a while (a decade or even a decade and a half) to pacify the Yankee, but it will be done. And once the Salting is completed, the women and children violated and drugged into genetic slavery and whatnot; then comes the final pursuit: rewriting the History Book.
For the Eurasian coalition will not stop until ever mention of "The United States of America" ever made from henceforth, is done so via spitting and cursing their name (moreso than Nazi Germany and other past losers) and so that said name is never again uttered in certain circles (i.e. such as "education"/indoctrination circles of the Next Generation of workers drones).
I think you are under-estimating the gravity of a petroyuan challenge to the USD. This excites me because it's a rare moment for me to be *MORE* pessimistic than you.
"Recall that as of typing this up, the Saudis already export more than double to China what they do with the US". That's correct, but right now that export is priced in dollars. China consumes 12M barrels, produces 4M barrels, and imports 8M barrels of oil a day. The US consumes 20M barrels, produces 12M barrels, and imports 8M barrels of oil a day.
The world as a whole consumes 98M barrels of oil a day. The world as a whole imports and exports 42M barrels of oil a day. At present, the US dollar commands 80% of oil transactions, or 34M barrels per day.
Trade between Russia and China is 1.6M barrels per day. Of China's oil imports, approximately 1.6M are in petroyuan (from Russia) and the other 7.4M are in dollars. Saudi Arabia is China's #1 supplier of oil and the #1 exporter of oil.
If just Saudi Arabia agrees to sell oil to China for petroyuan, the petroyuan will now be backed by 8M barrels per day while the petrodollar will still be backed by 26M barrels per day. That would be a sharp blow, reducing the dollar's share to 61% of oil trade. However -- and perhaps this is where we disagree -- it seems likely that the many countries which do more trade with China than they do with the US would also be happy to use petroyuan, and that the many oil exporters who sell more to China than US would, as well.
Since hypothetical musings are weak sauce, I'll offer a hard number, I'll predict that the dollar's share of world oil transactions will have declined from 80% to 61% by the end of 2023 and to 50% by the end of 2024. I'll be happy if I'm wrong!
You are certainly far more pessimistic on this important issue than myself, and you bring up some compelling arguments (which I failed to consider). Thank You for that!
I think especially so your point regarding the 34 million barrels priced in USD (of which the Saudis pitch in some 6-7 million) is quite relevant.
The question of course that needs answering (and we can only wait and see due to lacking access to the leaderships' thought process) is... To What scope and scale are the Saudis willing to reprice their exports?
I don't see how a man as ambitious, wily and cunning as Prince Salman (at this point, de facto ruler of the Saudi state) would risk his head (literally and figuratively) going fully in bed with the Chinese. Keeping one's options open is key (especially since the Americans have made it clear to him that "regime change" is on the table).
Even if for argument's sake the Prince exceeds expectations and reprices some 80%+ of Saudi Oil exports into yuan and/or rubles... would the Global South (especially OPEC+) follow suit? Ethiopia et al (who are not even relevant in world energy markets as a producer) have already been warned with the Tigray rebellion.
Ultimately I think Human Nature (and Universals regarding how it operates) is key. One can certainly *Prefer* to affiliate one way; but nevertheless not fully commit (or even commit at all) due to lingering (and well founded mind you) fears regarding blowback, subterfuge, etc.
The Americans would have to "do a Wilhelm" type blunder (recall the Tangiers incident and the ensuing Morocco crisis of 1905-06 which made the then German Empire a pariah on the international scene) such that these OPEC members would decide that:
"Regardless of the American blowback and regime change dangers; sticking with them is even more dangerous given how Nutty they are!"
The "Collective Biden" (because let's face it... it's an oligarchic cabal who are puppeteering him) have yet to make such a massive blunder. They would have to "Whip to Death a Slave so Bad that the rest of the Slaves all rise in revolt without fear of the Whip". That has yet to happen; at least I don't see it in 2023; but I could certainly be wrong about that!
Addendum: Thank You as well for not "merely musing hypothetically" and putting in some hard numbers for predictive purposes. Definitely will bookmark this page and come back to it in hindsight!
Very good points. I think Saudi Arabia is in a very delicate position. They were a partner of the petrodollar system but the US is not honoring the aliance anymore, since long ago. In blunt terms, they may calculate that if SA become some kind of failed state, China will lose much more than US.
It's less about them becoming a "failed state" and more about the Prince saving his own Hide. It's actually very simple (and even a cursory look at Human Nature will likewise yield this conclusion):
He wants to Preserve his own position. As a wily Autocrat, that comes first and foremost BEYOND all other secondary considerations (be it "making the Saudi state more prosperous" and whatnot). Let us remember also that the Modern Saudi State was born in Betrayal: Only with betraying their Ottoman masters did the Nejdi province then become an illegitimate "Kingdom".
In general (we can flip the pages of the history books for this), nations born in rebellion (such as the Americans) have a starkly different character and set of pursuant "national virtues" which animate the body politick than do nations born in *Betrayal*. The Saudi state of today is in the latter camp.
Even if the Americans become overbearing, callous and more "unilateral", why on earth would a nation born out of betrayal seek out a "New partner" unless said Partner can once more facilitate a betrayal? China is not a military hegemon; at least not yet. Why ought the Prince (descended from Betrayers) to side with them thus when they don't even "carry the bigger stick"?
Is it possible that Russia would provide China with a "bigger stick" to bridge the period required for China to complete building its own?
Certainly that is very possible. How *probable* it is that they decide to do so... that really depends on how "facts on the ground" develop with the passage of time.
One thing that could happen (again, this depends heavily on how the "facts on the ground" take shape) is that the Russians supply Chinese Subs with Zircon missiles. Such a move would *certainly* lead to war in the pacific, since the Zircon easily breaches the 800 mile radius "zone" of every aircraft carrier out there. The US would be forced to intervene thus.
Because Chinese subs possessing said tech would mean the umbrella projected over Taiwan by any Carrier battlegroup... is rendered moot. They would be compelled to "act now"... or forever lose influence and capability overall to aid and abet Taiwan.
Thank you. I dont know much about Saudi Arabia. But what are the options of the Prince? Is he not in a similar position as Kadafi, of Libya, in 2011 ? I believe Kadafi would do anything to appease the USA. He was destroyed the same.
And that's part of why I think the Saudis will switch their loyalties. The wages of loyalty to the US have been death.
The Prince has more options because of significant Saudi soft power overseas (something which Gaddafi lacked). The Americans cant outright murder him therefore since said sleepers would activate and run amok. Assassinations, collaborations with Iran, etc. would exponentially increase until we get an Israel war (where state actors and non state actors alike would pitch in), and it will be of a sort we have never witnessed before:
Namely, one where the Iron dome is breached via a combination of Iranian drones and Supersonics. At that point, a place like Tel Aviv does not even "need to be nuked", it would just be a Dresden v2.0. Non-state actors would then roll in, twist the Knife into Caesar (i.e. Israel) and it will be over. It is this outcome which unnerves policy makers and prevents outright regime change in the Kingdom.
As such, the Prince is a far more dangerous man. Because he actually has sufficient clout, soft power, etc. from his sleepers and proxies to have a small degree of "freedom" when it comes to interacting with the Hegemon (i.e. the Americans). This makes him more unpredictable and less "useful" overall. He is no longer an asset, but a liability; one which cannot just be "disappeared".
A grim prediction, and likely correct.
But precisely how grim is it?
Whether or not the Saudis accept yuan or not, they have a military based on US arms, and as we are learning in Ukraine, US arms are pretty kick ass. (And this holds even if we discount the Pollyanna projections of the US media and we accept most of the Putin cheerleaders. The objective fact is that Ukraine has held back a Russian invasion using US weaponry despite no long term training in such, and despite not getting our best stuff.)
If they drop the petrodollar arrangement, the Saudis would indeed invest less in US financial instruments. But they would still like dollars to buy our weapons, which are not only potent, but that's what they have. It took Iran a LONG time to wean itself from US weapons parts dependency.
But is investing in China really that good a deal? Our gerontocracy favors investors over workers and consumers. This makes the US a good place to park your cash. We are Switzerland with nukes.
And how much of our trade deficit is real? Our tariff rates are far lower than our combination of income and payroll taxes. For example, Apple pays royalties to a bunch of sheep in a minor British Isle for intellectual property developed in California.
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Should your prediction become correct I fear:
1. Even more foreign buying up of US real estate and once great corporations.
2. A price surge on the cheap Chinese stuff I buy on Amazon.
If I had money to invest, I'd stockpile Chinese made merch, not gold. This is a variant of John Pugsly's "Alpha Strategy" from back in the day.
I don't fear a long term surge in energy prices. We are one election away from regaining energy independence. (And let us keep in mind, that Peace through Dirty Energy was Jimmy Carter's policy.) We do not need Saudi Arabia for energy. We need Saudi Arabia to help finance our defense industry.
I fear that some of your assumptions may not be entirely correct, especially "The objective fact is that Ukraine has held back a Russian invasion using US weaponry despite no long term training in such, and despite not getting our best stuff."
Several possibilities mitigate against the objective factuality of the statement. First, all of the reports (and videos, and other evidence) we have seen that much of the US weaponry is being operated by the US military at second or third hand (contractors, Polish military in plain clothes, etc.). Second, the idea that the invasion was held back by Ukraine rather than Russia. I expect that proposition will receive real-world testing in the near future.
Even so. US weapons worked enough to thwart what was once the mightiest ground force on earth.
True, the old Soviet Union once included Ukraine.
Still, unless you are defending yourself against China, US arms look pretty darned good. Not good enough to thoroughly crush a determined local militia, as in Afghanistan. But good enough to thwart a bigger invader.
Saudi Arabia can feel pretty secure against an Iranian invasion using US arms + "advisors".
Once again, I point out that the question as to whether that invader has actually been thwarted remains to be demonstrated.
Russia may win yet. That's not what I'm contending. I'm only pointing out that their initial advance got bogged down and pushed back significantly, using our second tier weapons.
Not really.
4 provinces have been annexed (that's 6-8 million people). Add in Crimea from 8 years back... that's basically a 1/4 of the country.
Western media is trying to say "Russia is bogged down" to mean that the entire country (the size of Texas and having some 40 million people) has not been overrun. If one's "success" condition is that paltry... that means the situation is as grim as it gets.
Let's be realistic and honest here: The Russians have chosen to not firebomb Ukraine and level it (for a variety of reasons). A nation that has the Smerch system (and several other related ones) does not need to use its nukes to butcher millions of people.
The American mindset here is one of denial. Its not "our second rate weapons systems are bogging them down" but rather "they CHOOSE to not deploy their first rate systems and would rather 'capture it all whole' ".
My prediction for 2023 is that many experts will make predictions, none of which will come true.
For sure. This is why I give REAL predictions and not namby-pamby "40% chance of blah blah" that say nothing. My track record on predictions has been spotty (predicted Trump in '16, predicted Trump wouldn't start any wars '16-'20, mis-predicted outcome of 2020 election, mis-predicted Supreme Court response) but it's at least candid and evaluable.
I have always found the future is difficult to know until it becomes the past. Happy New Year.
And I have *generally* found that those who "always" find something to be the case do so only by ignoring those cases that do not fit their search pattern.
Amen to that. And great to have you here -- long time reader!
Why, thank you! I'm always heartened at finding readers in unexpected (to me) places.
Welcome words of wiasurance from Woe (tree of...)
By crashtime, our biodiesel and biofuel (fermented kasava-derived alcohol) industry should have been launched and our solar-powerd water pumps and comfort fans should deliver us paradise on earth. By this time we hope that Russia and China will have forced the US to claw back its military machine from American colonies in the southern hemisphere, which means our US-owned politicians will be defenceless. This will precipitate a whole new segment of the public entertainment industry, mass freedom and justice celebrations, and we hope to corner the market in natural fibre noose production.
Long live private enterprise.
This post makes me want to read a post-cyberpunk science fiction novel written in this setting.
As woe wants, woe gets. The first volume is languishing with the first fearful publisher, 'The Lost Track'. Once I have written the movie version I'll commence the sequel. Half the story line has yet to play, out in the near future. Fear of terminal reprisals by Rupert Murdoch is keeping it off the shelves thus far. Spineless buffoons. Nevertheless, the PDF version is available free to anyone who wants it. Kiriakou liked it.
I cannot tell if you are serious or not, and that makes this response even better.
To you, brother ToW, anything I say is serious.
What I offer has 60 years of dedicated research behind it. Ask, on tonyryan43@gmail.com and the book is yours. And yes, Murdoch has tried to kill me a few times so far but card-carrying assassins out here stick out like dogs balls. Everybody is black and a little partisan towards me as I am family to thousands. That is their only value system, being tribal. Thus Murdoch's nervous minions fumble the ball every time.
I also have a plan to bring down the NWO elite master plan, but I think I may have told too many people because the army jumped with both feet on some independent allies.
Sorry, it's all too esoteric to explain here.
Hmm. Well, doable, I guess. Give me a second or two...
I guess I can be both cyberpunk and post-cyberpunk. In fact, it would almost be a natural fit.
Why did we destroy our domestic oil production?
To appease the Green movement's true believers.
Amen. The green movement is today's best evidence about the road to hell being paved with good intentions.
Well now... is it?
The notions some of the "thought leaders" in said movement played around with (I am thinking Naess et el in the 70s with regard to "Deep Ecology") are as Demonic as they come. Several decades on, the concepts have transferred onto the masses in a more dilute form (platitudes such as "don't hunt the whales" and whatnot).
But the original renderings of these ideas are demonic. And it is available for all to read, identify, recognize and realize overall.
Relevant: https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/ethics-environmental/#DeeEco
Also a good reminder that our rules aren't evil geniuses, but a coalition of corrupt, and frequently stupid, interests that often work at cross purposes.
The one thing they are decent at, is adapting to developments (https://lukesmith.xyz/articles/conspiratorial-thinking-and-multiple-outs/).
I agree that the conscripts have good intentions. However those that fund the "green movement" might call them useful idiots and have no good intentions whatever.
Most of the green movement's funding comes from a combination of true believers and people extorted by said true believers, with a smattering from Russian and possibly Chinese sources.
https://news.yahoo.com/saudi-arabia-open-talks-trade-103814068.html
I indeed agree with you. The outcomes domestically-culturally though, I am very frightened of. This because, in my own conversations with people they cannot even fathom the idea that the dollar wouldn't reign supreme. To them it is an unthinkable, they are unaware of any historical currency crisis. Thus whatever comes they will not see it coming. Two books of interest are P. D. James's Children of Men, and Jane Jacobs's Dark Age Ahead. Children of Men is a fictional dystopia where all men go sterile in 1996, and the panic that follows. Mass state sponsored suicide is featured in the book, and I think across the West if we have massive recession this will ensue. Take away bread, circus, and security and the average American (or anyone dragged with us) is in for a sad surprise. Dark Age Ahead, is nonfiction, Jacobs who was a city planner goes over the various way that the modern West is just not really sustainable. She covers from education to taxation, this is book I keep going back to. Anyway, I know that was a bit of a spew, but I do appreciate your work.