The Gathering Storm

How Might Things Escalate in the Russo-Ukraine War?

The danger of world war, and perhaps even nuclear war, grew dramatically during the month of September.

• Russia declared a partial mobilization, calling up 300,000 additional troops.

• Russia organized a referendum in the occupied territories of Ukraine to determine whether the residents wanted to join the Russian Federation. The results of the vote are claimed to be 85% - 98% in favor of seceding from Ukraine to join Russia.

• Russia’s former president, Dmitry Medvedev, warned that Russia would use nuclear weapons to defend its territory.

• Russia’s Patriarch Krill has declared that Russian soldiers who die fighting for the Motherland are washed clean of their sins. He has essentially said the Russo-Ukraine War is a crusade or holy war.

• Iran, a close Russian ally, was engulfed in protests, not dissimilar to the protests seen in the Arab Spring and various color revolutions worldwide. Foreign news sources have claimed the protests are Western-backed.

• China seems to have had some internal unrest or party in-fighting over Xi’s regime, that has ended with a number of executions and imprisonments but cemented Xi’s rule. I think.

• Azerbaijan and Armenia renewed their fighting in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. Foreign news sources have claimed the outbreak has happened with Western pushes.

• Someone sabotaged the NordStream 1 and NordStream 2 pipelines. Denmark, Sweden, Russia claims it was the United States. The Russian argument is that Europe would negotiate with Russia to get gas flowing again if the NordStream pipelines still existed, so by destroying them, the US has “burned the ships” and forced Europe to stay in the fight. Strangely, Poland’s former defense minister agrees with this assessment. Meanwhile, the United States, Ukraine, and Germany have claimed the sabotage was Russian, as part of their ongoing effort to deprive the EU of gas and oil.

We’ve previously modeled several ways in which World War Next might play out. But what we haven’t modeled is the ways the situation in Ukraine might leads us there. However, since we are faced with what can only be described as “multiple sets of facts” provided by the various warring parties, we’ll have make multiple predictions, each based on a different narrative.

Case 1: Capitulation and Collapse of the Russian Federation

The Russian Armed Forces are near the breaking point, with over 45,000 men dead. Russia’s mobilization is an act of desperation, the last gasp of a losing adversary. It will not succeed because the young men of Russia are actively avoiding conscription into the reserve, and those who are conscripted are being equipped with primitive gear. Europe has made the necessary steps to avoid a calamitous winter, while Russia is teetering from sanctions. Morale within the Russian government has dropped to the point where Putin is likely to be ousted soon.

If this narrative is true, then it is merely a matter of time until Russia collapses. We might hypothesize that this collapse will take place around February 2023. The process might go as follows:

• Winter passes without severe hardship in Europe, dashing Russian hopes that Europe will come to the negotiating table to avoid popular unrest. Meanwhile, the sanctions bring Russia’s economy to its knees.

• The anniversary of the war arrives with little progress. Putin’s grip on power is weakened from the enormous loss of prestige. A CIA-supported color revolution topples him from power, and replaces him with a pro-Western government. The new ruling faction ends the war.

• The West imposes a punitive peace on the Russian Federation, that includes increased autonomy for its member states, hard limits on military spending and armed forces, demilitarization of regions bordering NATO, nuclear disarmament, and war crime charges against the former leadership. In exchange, Russia is re-integrated into the global economy with substantial remuneration to the pro-Western polity helping them swallow the loss of national pride.

• Russia is integrated into the progressive globalist agenda and America’s status as the globe’s hyperpower is confirmed.

Case 2: Capitulation and Collapse of Ukraine

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are near the breaking point, with over 73,000 men dead. Ukraine’s recent offensive looked impressive but has gained it little, because the Russian troops simply fell back. Now the spearhead of the Ukrainian forces are in a difficult-to-defend cauldron. By mobilizing, Russia has signaled its intention to “take the gloves off,” and hundreds of thousands of additional troops and weapon systems are going to enter the fray. Europe has exhausted its military resources and has few weapon systems left to send to Ukraine; moreover, it is facing an insoluble energy dilemma that will mean devastating winter freezes, deindustrialization, and popular unrest.

If this narrative is true, then it is merely a matter of time until Ukraine collapses. We again might hypothesize that this collapse will take place around February 2023. The process might go as follows:

• Russia declares that Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia have joined the Russian Federation. When Ukraine continues to attempt to re-capture these territories, Russia officially declares war against Ukraine.

• Russia launches a winter offensive with its newly-mobilized forces that annihilates the Kharkiv salient. Tens to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops are captured, killed, and wounded. Simultaneously, Russia unleashes its strategic bombers, cruise missiles, and other weapon systems against Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities.

• Severe winter hardship triggers popular unrest in Europe as energy prices become unaffordable. Thousands freeze to death. Europeans decide that America is to blame for the destruction of the NordStream pipelines and blame their alliance with the US for their current condition. Under pressure from their angry citizenry, European states signal they are ready to see the war ended on previously-unacceptable terms.

• With its army defeated, its cities aflame, and its allies abandoning it, Ukraine is forced to capitulate. The annexed territories become de facto part of Russia. The United States uses its Security Council veto to prevent this from being acknowledge in the UN, and refuses to allow Russia’s re-admission into the international community. Nevertheless, low-key commerce between Europe and Russia for key resources resume.

• Russia has established itself as a great power and China has been emboldened. The United States has proven unable to tame Russia with economic force, and unwilling to do so with military power; the Pax Americana is brought to an end. Henceforth, war between nations for territory becomes possible again.

Case 3: Russian Escalation into World War

The Russian Armed Forces are near the breaking point, with over 45,000 men dead. Russia’s mobilization is an act of desperation, the last gasp of a losing adversary. Europe has made the necessary steps to avoid a calamitous winter, while Russia is teetering from sanctions. Morale within the Russian government has dropped substantially… but Putin retains a firm grip on power. And Putin sees the struggle as existential, both for the existence of his regime and for the existence of the Russian nation.

The war might proceed as follows:

• Russia declares that Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia have joined the Russian Federation. When Ukraine continues to attempt to re-capture these territories, Russia officially declares war against Ukraine.

• Having declared war, but lacking conventional forces to achieve victory, Putin opts to “escalate to de-escalate,” a Russian doctrine by which an unexpected and intense escalation is used to show commitment. The most obvious example of “escalating to de-escalate” is using a tactical nuclear weapon, but Russia might also, e.g., attack the trans-Atlantic underwater telecommunication cables or destroy oil rigs in nearby waters or stage cyber-attacks, etc. If its tactic succeeded, then we’d move to something like Case 2. But let’s hypothesize that instead of deterring the West, it infuriates it.

• American forces are no longer are armed with any tactical nuclear weapons, and the Pentagon advises against escalating directly to ICBMs. But the White House wishes to retaliate vigorously for the use of tactical nuclear weapons. Therefore, America responds by deploying military advisors into Ukraine, launching a full-scale cyber-attack against Russia, and supporting the Ukrainian war effort with air strikes on Russia targeting key military and energy infrastructure.

• Russia retaliates against the United States by targeting energy production in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, the trans-Atlantic underwater telecommunication cables, and other vital infrastructure. It also unleashes its own cyber-warfare and shoots down a US airplane.

• Either America or one of the NATO states that suffered infrastructure damage triggers Article 5. NATO is now in open war with Russia.

• If Russia is, at this point, abandoned by its current allies (such as China and Iran), then we might imagine an outcome similar to Case 1. On the other hand, if China stays firm in its support of Russia, or itself escalates, then we head into World War Next.

Case 4: Western Escalation into World War

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are near the breaking point, with over 73,000 men dead. Ukraine’s recent offensive looked impressive but has gained it little, because the Russian troops simply fell back. Now the spearhead of the Ukrainian forces are in a difficult-to-defend cauldron. By mobilizing, Russia has signaled its intention to “take the gloves off,” and hundreds of thousands of additional troops and weapon systems are going to enter the fray. Europe is facing an insoluble energy dilemma that will mean devastating winter freezes, but now the Europeans are unified in blaming Russia for their problems. And both America and Europe have more resources available to continue fighting.

• Russia declares that Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia have joined the Russian Federation. When Ukraine continues to attempt to re-capture these territories, Russia officially declares war against Ukraine.

• Russia launches a winter offensive with its newly-mobilized forces that annihilates the Kharkiv salient. Tens to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops are captured, killed, and wounded. Simultaneously, Russia unleashes its strategic bombers, cruise missiles, and other weapon systems against Kyiv and other major Ukrainian cities. These actions shock and appall the Western world.

• Severe winter hardship triggers popular unrest in Europe as energy prices become unaffordable. Thousands freeze to death. However, Europeans decide that Russia is to blame and agitate for retribution against the Bear. Under pressure from their angry citizenry, European states start to mobilize for war.

• America and Europe begin to send 4th and 5th generation fighters and bombers to Ukraine. A “Flying Tigers”-style volunteer pilot brigade forms, with top US and NATO fighter pilots flying for Ukraine while maintaining plausible deniability. These aircraft construct strikes deep into Russian territory, devastating military and energy infrastructure.

• Russia retaliates by targeting energy production in the North Sea and Baltic Sea, the trans-Atlantic underwater telecommunication cables, and other vital infrastructure. However, it does so without directly claiming the actions as its own, blaming the activities on American false flags.

• As tit-for-tat escalation continues, either one side will blink (sending us to Case 1 or 2) or both sides will begin to see the war as existential. In that case, we head into World War Next.

So What Will Happen?

The virtue of the models above is that they include concrete predictions from specific decisions. Specifically, the future course of events is going to turn on the answers to the following questions:

• Does Putin maintain a firm grip on power in Russia?

• Does Russia officially annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia into the Russian Federation?

  • If so, does Russia declare war on Ukraine on the pretext that it has attacked Russian territory?

    • If so, does Russia begin to attack the civilian infrastructure of Ukraine?

• Does Europe suffer severe hardship and economic collapse this winter due to lack of Russian energy?

  • If so, do the Europeans blame America or Russia for their economic hardship?

• Does Russia successfully counter-attack against Ukraine’s forces, either near Kharkiv or elsewhere, demonstrating that it has successfully mobilized to keep fighting?

• Does Russia “escalate to de-escalate”?

  • If so, does it deter the West, or infuriate them?

• Do America and Europe continue to supply high-tech weapons to Ukraine? Do they have enough high-tech weapons available to supply?

• Does China stay neutral, or does it shift its position in favor of one of the two parties?

My best guesses are:

• Putin will retain a firm grip on power.

• Russia will annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia.

• Russia will declare war on Ukraine (or at least formally broaden its “special military operation”) and resume its attack with more intensity.

• Europe will suffer severe hardship and economic calamity this winter, but will blame Russia for it.

• Russia will counter-attack Ukraine with modest success, enough for it to claim it is making progress but not enough that America and Europe feel the war is lost.

• Russia will not escalate to de-escalate unless America and/or Europe begin to attack Russia, which they will not immediately do.

• America and Europe will continue to supply high-tech weapons to Ukraine, but at a diminished rate for lack of material.

• China will remain neutral.

This will put us in a mild version of Case 4, with the risk of escalation to World War Next looming but with the other possible outcomes still on the table. That is my prediction for the most likely outcome by February 2023.

Doubtless there are a dozen x-factors I have failed to foresee or include in my analysis. Let me know what they are in the comments, and offer up your own predictions. I’ll be in my bunker, stacking silver and rice-bags.