If that fails, then run away and declare unconditional peace.
It is extremely difficult to kill Putin. Therefore, the war will peter out.
Just another winter of low-level angst and corruption in Europe, as any other winter.
The Retarded States of Europe would be a name to consider in the future decades.
If the soccer players all die in Qatar and never come back, then maybe Europe could be saved culturally. But there will only be war in the newspaapers and in the very damaged minds of the people addicted to FUD.
I have read that Putin might escalate it from a Special Military Operation(SMO,) to a Counterterrorism Operation(CTO). From what I have read, Putin is using specific terms short of war in accordance with established international law, including the UN Charter, as well as Russian law.
Unlike the US, Putin follows all the requirements of the law when he authorizes military action. This is very helpful with the rest of the world outside the American hegemony. This is a battle of state sovereignty vs. globalism. Putin, even when invading, is respecting state sovereignty principles.
provocative stuff. I will say that the proclamations that 90% of people in contested territories want to be part of Russia sounds frighteningly similar to Hitler's claims about ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland.
also re below; i think the idea that Putin follows the requirements of "the law" (whose? International? Russias?) is absolutely one of the most hysterical things I've ever read.
I recently discovered your Substack and this was an interesting post to read in April 2023. It seems that the surprisingly mild winter in Europe has allowed us to “dodge the bullet” so far on escalation.
Andrei Illarionov - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrey_Illarionov - used to be Putin's senior advisor from 2000 to 2005, but since then became his "critic" (aka enemy.) He is clearly pro-Ukraine in this conflict. However, he had always been very measured in his analysis, though.
He follows Onyx's analysis of the sides' losses. He claims that Onyx is independent and thorough. Here are the two links (the dates are Feb 24, but they are being updated on a regular basis):
In that podcast he makes the following claim. According to their data up until August 21-25 the U to R loss ratio was averaging 1:3.5 or so, with the battle of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk being the highest (for U) ratio of 1:1.1 . His point is that Russia has an advantage in people (including the mobilization potential) and hardware of approximately 5:1, so in the war of attrition any loss ratio less than that is in Russia's favor.
From August 21-25 the ratio went up to 1:7, so now the war of attrition turned against R. That was part of the reason Putin raised the stakes with the mobilization, annexations, and nuclear threats. According to Illarionov Putin wants the US to blinken (sorry, could not resist) and force the U to talk.
Illarionov speculates that the change in loss ratio is connected to U's forces increase in proficiency. They mobilized early and then underwent multi-month training in Europe. Russian army is losing proficiency, on the other hand, due to heavy losses among the professional military.
Some Commentators (such as Gonzalo Lira) have noted that the Nordstream pipelines being sabotaged (we all know by whom; let's not kids ourselves here) are the modern day equivalent of Cortez landing and then burning his ships: essentially signalling to his crew that "there is no turning back". The March to World War (and Yankee-land's Salting) thus draws ever closer.
In our modern day context, the Yankee is whipping his poodles, lackeys, etc in Europe to get ready for a full confrontation with the Russkies. Victoria Nuland did say "Fuck the EU!"; so it looks like she is adamant in following through with that quite *literally*.
The Germans will lose what manufacturing they have left and be among the first to be Bioengineered into Hybrid Chimeras to fight the "Eurasian Hordes" in the near future. Unfortunately for them (and their Yankee overlords) Europe will be overrun very quickly for a very simple reason:
The Qualitative Calibre (not just "escalatory dominance" but at the grand strategic level) of the Russkies has long surpassed both them and their Yankee overlords; who spent most of the money on defunct technologies (the F-35 program, anyone?)
Once the Eurasian Hordes land; the "rulers" will try to flee to their bunkers and mansions in New Zealand and elsewhere (if they have not already); all the while tapping into their final ace in the hole: "Dem White People dun nit!" The Culture Wars of today are just a massive insurance policy to stave off this genocidal outcome for the "ruling elite" of today:
If the Russian Bear, Chinese Dragon, etc start running after you; just push the nearby "HUWYTE people" into their clutches for mauling. Unfortunately for them; neither they (nor the masses they defiled, lampooned and demonized for the last 5+ decades) will be spared.
Anger, Grief and then Revenge... that Trifecta is a bedrock of the human condition. Once it is activated, it will not be satiated until you have a situation like (say) Baghdad overflowing with so much blood, guts, puss, etc that the Euphrates itself goes red-yellow for weeks on end.
For the near future context, the analogue would be the Mississipi going red for a few weeks from all the carnage; especially in the heavier more urban areas being made Yankee-free.
Russia is NOT losing this war. The whole thing is staged by all parties to try to bring in the NWO. It should be obvious to everyone by now that all of the countries pretending to be fighting are working together
And, for what it's worth, there are those in the Christian church who will cite prophecy about what they may view as a "player" in revelation's prophecy. Here's what a Bing search says to the question:
Is Russia Rosh, Gog or Magog?
Gog is a person who rules over the land of Magog (Russia). Magog means the “Prince of Rosh.” (Gog) Rosh is the old root word for the land of Russia. God informs Gog and Magog in Ezekiel 38:15 , “You will come from your place in the far North” (the Hebrew word means “the uttermost part of the North.” Hmmm...
https://www.reuters.com/world/extracts-putins-speech-annexation-ceremony-2022-09-30/
Does Russia officially annex Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia into the Russian Federation? YES
Obvious: attack the commander's head directly.
If that fails, then run away and declare unconditional peace.
It is extremely difficult to kill Putin. Therefore, the war will peter out.
Just another winter of low-level angst and corruption in Europe, as any other winter.
The Retarded States of Europe would be a name to consider in the future decades.
If the soccer players all die in Qatar and never come back, then maybe Europe could be saved culturally. But there will only be war in the newspaapers and in the very damaged minds of the people addicted to FUD.
I have read that Putin might escalate it from a Special Military Operation(SMO,) to a Counterterrorism Operation(CTO). From what I have read, Putin is using specific terms short of war in accordance with established international law, including the UN Charter, as well as Russian law.
Unlike the US, Putin follows all the requirements of the law when he authorizes military action. This is very helpful with the rest of the world outside the American hegemony. This is a battle of state sovereignty vs. globalism. Putin, even when invading, is respecting state sovereignty principles.
provocative stuff. I will say that the proclamations that 90% of people in contested territories want to be part of Russia sounds frighteningly similar to Hitler's claims about ethnic Germans in the Sudetenland.
also re below; i think the idea that Putin follows the requirements of "the law" (whose? International? Russias?) is absolutely one of the most hysterical things I've ever read.
I recently discovered your Substack and this was an interesting post to read in April 2023. It seems that the surprisingly mild winter in Europe has allowed us to “dodge the bullet” so far on escalation.
Nice prediction, as of Feb. 2023 it basically matches what was predicted.
Listened to this podcast the other day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hqeJA3o1qfI (sorry, it's in Russian.)
Andrei Illarionov - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrey_Illarionov - used to be Putin's senior advisor from 2000 to 2005, but since then became his "critic" (aka enemy.) He is clearly pro-Ukraine in this conflict. However, he had always been very measured in his analysis, though.
He follows Onyx's analysis of the sides' losses. He claims that Onyx is independent and thorough. Here are the two links (the dates are Feb 24, but they are being updated on a regular basis):
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-ukrainian.html
In that podcast he makes the following claim. According to their data up until August 21-25 the U to R loss ratio was averaging 1:3.5 or so, with the battle of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk being the highest (for U) ratio of 1:1.1 . His point is that Russia has an advantage in people (including the mobilization potential) and hardware of approximately 5:1, so in the war of attrition any loss ratio less than that is in Russia's favor.
From August 21-25 the ratio went up to 1:7, so now the war of attrition turned against R. That was part of the reason Putin raised the stakes with the mobilization, annexations, and nuclear threats. According to Illarionov Putin wants the US to blinken (sorry, could not resist) and force the U to talk.
Illarionov speculates that the change in loss ratio is connected to U's forces increase in proficiency. They mobilized early and then underwent multi-month training in Europe. Russian army is losing proficiency, on the other hand, due to heavy losses among the professional military.
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if Germany breaks before either Ukraine or Russia.
Some Commentators (such as Gonzalo Lira) have noted that the Nordstream pipelines being sabotaged (we all know by whom; let's not kids ourselves here) are the modern day equivalent of Cortez landing and then burning his ships: essentially signalling to his crew that "there is no turning back". The March to World War (and Yankee-land's Salting) thus draws ever closer.
In our modern day context, the Yankee is whipping his poodles, lackeys, etc in Europe to get ready for a full confrontation with the Russkies. Victoria Nuland did say "Fuck the EU!"; so it looks like she is adamant in following through with that quite *literally*.
The Germans will lose what manufacturing they have left and be among the first to be Bioengineered into Hybrid Chimeras to fight the "Eurasian Hordes" in the near future. Unfortunately for them (and their Yankee overlords) Europe will be overrun very quickly for a very simple reason:
The Qualitative Calibre (not just "escalatory dominance" but at the grand strategic level) of the Russkies has long surpassed both them and their Yankee overlords; who spent most of the money on defunct technologies (the F-35 program, anyone?)
Once the Eurasian Hordes land; the "rulers" will try to flee to their bunkers and mansions in New Zealand and elsewhere (if they have not already); all the while tapping into their final ace in the hole: "Dem White People dun nit!" The Culture Wars of today are just a massive insurance policy to stave off this genocidal outcome for the "ruling elite" of today:
If the Russian Bear, Chinese Dragon, etc start running after you; just push the nearby "HUWYTE people" into their clutches for mauling. Unfortunately for them; neither they (nor the masses they defiled, lampooned and demonized for the last 5+ decades) will be spared.
Anger, Grief and then Revenge... that Trifecta is a bedrock of the human condition. Once it is activated, it will not be satiated until you have a situation like (say) Baghdad overflowing with so much blood, guts, puss, etc that the Euphrates itself goes red-yellow for weeks on end.
For the near future context, the analogue would be the Mississipi going red for a few weeks from all the carnage; especially in the heavier more urban areas being made Yankee-free.
Russia is NOT losing this war. The whole thing is staged by all parties to try to bring in the NWO. It should be obvious to everyone by now that all of the countries pretending to be fighting are working together
And, for what it's worth, there are those in the Christian church who will cite prophecy about what they may view as a "player" in revelation's prophecy. Here's what a Bing search says to the question:
Is Russia Rosh, Gog or Magog?
Gog is a person who rules over the land of Magog (Russia). Magog means the “Prince of Rosh.” (Gog) Rosh is the old root word for the land of Russia. God informs Gog and Magog in Ezekiel 38:15 , “You will come from your place in the far North” (the Hebrew word means “the uttermost part of the North.” Hmmm...