Two things came to mind after reading this: the first was the ending of F451, with the guys sitting around reciting and transcribing the old books. The other was the Wil / Ariel Durant quote: "A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within."
History Repeats First as Tragedy, and then as Farce. This is more a case of the latter than the former. In particular, the spoliation of "Superman" and comics in general is a way-station.
Cosmopolitan Globalism is just something which will play the role of placeholder so that the "unwashed masses" who are unemployed, young, childless and bombarded with libertine excesses, processed foods, etc stay in line. It's actually quite simple. The Culture Wars and the "victory" of the Lefties in said area is a Necessary first step to prepare for Actual War.
The Next Big War against the Eurasian Powers (Russia + China and their allies) requires the Draft. The Goal is to make sure that the population on the one hand (for the older generation) are de-raccinated enough and for the younger ones (i.e. the folks noted earlier above) are brainwashed enough (to think "we are on the right side") to not make too much fuss.
Spoliation of "Superman" seems tiny and insignificant, but it is a big step toward that goal. When you Conscript People (especially to garrison somewhere as Abysmal and Naked to Bombardment as the West Coast of Taiwan or the Farmlands of Poland), you need them to subconsciously internalize a narrative and schema which justifies said force used on them.
Otherwise, even the most risk averse will take up arms (or at the bare minimum just refuse to fight). And you can't have any that; not when you expect most of your Carriers to be Sunk via Hypersonic Glide Vehicles which are almost impossible to intercept. At that point, you have a two-front war (one international and one civil) and you're as good as Conquered.
I'd like to hear more of your thoughts on the Actual War you expect to come, and what your predictions for it are. (Here in the comments, or point me to your blog!)
One of these days I will get around to Blogging. Thanks for holding me in good regard.
My instinct is that the Main invasion force will be through the Arctic. The movement will be through the Ice Caps, through the Poles, through Nunavut, Manitoba, Ontario, Maine and New England, and finally DC. At least, that will be the likely War Plan drawn up by the Eurasians. The other moves don't make much sense:
The Pacific can be traversed via "Island Hopping", but even if the Chinese get Naval Superiority, it will be a very costly. California and the West Coast are easy to defend due to the rugged terrain in many areas and narrow coastlines. And this is the most likely "direction" the Muricans will man defences for.
The Atlantic would mean getting through Continental Europe. France and the UK (though shadows of their former selves) would put up stiff resistance. This is just a poor move; plus Chinese Diplomats are working overtime to try and avoid War with the Europeans (Sinic outreach to the Germans is just one such example).
The Arctic Operation will be a Joint Force ("Eurasian", Sino-Russian, whatever one may choose to call it) and it will only happen when the Chinese develop an EMP weapon strong enough to Blind NORAD for a sufficient enough time. Logistically, it is still not doable. But around the late 2030s to early 2040s? I see it as very plausible.
As for the near future: Taiwan will either fold entirely (no US intervention; they will fall faster than the Afghan National Army due to low morale) or you'll get some token "assistance" from the Muricans (unlikely, given how Joey seems to eager to tell everyone he will "for sure" defend Taiwan), albeit not a complete commitment.
Murica does not have the numbers (with regard to active and reserve personnel) to conduct warfare against the Chinese, nor even enough to garrison Taiwan properly. Plus, half the country has yet to be made *completely* into Deplorables and Second Class Citizens; ergo the time for the Draft has not yet arrived.
The Boomers are almost all dead. Gen-X meanwhile is in general skeptical toward the "Evil Communists Eat Babies!" style 50s-60s era talking points. Drafting them to Defend "our Democratic way of life"? Expect revolt. Gen-Z and Millennials are the target now a la Culture War Spoliation and "Make the World Better!" drivel.
Unfortunately, those two generations tend to be physically less fit, plus more likely to fall prey to Hedonic impulses. "Fight to the death to protect our Democratic Way of Life!" is unlikely to get them motivated enough. In addition, many of them have divided loyalties and may even choose to assist the Eurasians in the coming invasion.
So in general, I see Murica and "her allies" unable to get much out of the Draft, other than open Revolt. It will be far less than (say) if they implement it now; but the revolt would still be sufficient to Balkanize the North American Continent very rapidly. By this time (late 2030s and early 40s) the invasion will occur.
Based on Past Historical examples, and factoring in the Heterogeneity of Murican Society, no Unifying basis left (a la the purge of WASP-notions by the SJWs), a Two Front War (one Civil and one an Invading Force), etc; I expect a Total Rout. This will be effectively a "Carthago Delenda Est" v2.0 in mere months and years.
The Chinese in general are very sentimental. I have been there twice; and that is my instinct regarding them. They will be very Brutal with the massacres and then post facto justify it as "revenge" for the Century of Humiliation suffered at the hands of the "white man". Also, as a Civilization (example: the Han-Xiongnu wars) they are very thorough regarding purges. "Kill off 10 generations" is not just empty talk.
You'll see Historical Revision of a massive scale; "show trials", hunting down of technocrats and scientists for building 'inhumane weapons', etc, etc. One of the reasons the Culture Wars of Today are so vicious is because the perpetrators want to be on the "good graces" of Chinese rage and have an exit door a la "The Evil HUWHYTEs dunnit!" It won't work I think; even the Jews will likely be impacted.
Overall, by the end of this Century; you'll see world trade, migration flows, etc come back to the World Island of Afro-Eurasia. North America (after the "Salting") will be heavily depopulated; many of its peoples outright purged or (some more "lucky" ones) sold off into (what is effectively) new "slavery" for being born into (by now the Historical Revisionism and Cruelty kicks in) the "Accursed Race that almost destroyed the world".
A dark and depressing prediction indeed. To clarify, do you see the events happening in the West as being brought about by China to weaken us, or as the last gasp of our ruling class to organize some way to resist the imminent fall? I could read some of your comments as going either way.
My own opinion is that the Chinese do intend to become the globe's next hegemon -- they would return to being its rightful hegemon -- and are planning accordingly. What remains unclear to me is whether the depopulation of the earth (e.g. collapsing birth rates, low T counts, etc.) will leave anybody interested in that sort of "big war". It's hard to wage war for land when your population is shrinking. I could therefore see all of the above happening but without an actual invasion -- some mix of cyberwarfare, biowarfare, and EMPs to cripple us, followed by destruction of a few cities and then regime change that implements their desired policies on their behalf, without the need of invading at all.
I think it is more the latter (i.e. the elites staving off their inevitable Demise). The Culture Wars are their way of "killing two birds with one stone". On the one hand it creates a sub-human class of "deplorables" to draw upon during the Inevitable Draft; whilst on the other hand it gives them an "off ramp" if they are defeated; blaming it all on the "Evil White Man".
Their Ultimate Miscalculation however is with regard to *how little* revolt historically is often needed to Balkanize a nation. In general, you only need one Spontaneous, well organized mass in many cases (example: the Bastille Storming in France). China is more the guy who has "Wised Up" to this Con and is taking advantage and kicking a man while he's down.
That being said, there is no doubt in my mind that they have the requisite resources (manpower, minerals, etc) to out-produce the Atlanticists and win. It's just that the incompetent elites have "accelerated" the Delenda Est via this nonsense of "let's make half the country lesser than Vermin". Had they not done so; China would have needed an extra decade or two.
China and India have always been in the 20-25% range for Real GDP numbers, pre-1700 CE. As far back as 300 BCE you have that trend hold; prior to that it was the Fertile Crescent, Persia, Egypt, etc which was the "Economic Nexus" of the world. So in their view; they are just going back to "normal" and unseating the "Usurper" that is Murica.
I think you're definitely correct that moving forward, these nations (Murica, Russia, China, etc) will have an increased problem of "motivating" their populations to fight. The autocratic regimes though will be able to better get that done in a "passable" manner a la appeals to Patriotism, Revenge, Honour, etc. At least, that's what my instincts say.
Also, The UN Projections for population need to be taken with a grain of salt. They get these sorts of things wildly wrong all the time. I think back in the 80s (for example) they predicted the Pakistani fertility rate to drop into the 2.1-2.5 range by 2020... and yet here we are an it is well in the 3+ range and actually showing signs of *increasing*.
In a similar vein; I think a lot of these more detrimental sociological trends (especially the low-T counts) are more a symptom of the inherent Dysgenic lifestyle one pursues when under the yoke of these Globalist blokes. There could definitely be a "normalization" in the future when the yoke loosens; so I take the "population slump" narrative more skeptically overall.
Two things came to mind after reading this: the first was the ending of F451, with the guys sitting around reciting and transcribing the old books. The other was the Wil / Ariel Durant quote: "A great civilization is not conquered from without until it has destroyed itself from within."
History Repeats First as Tragedy, and then as Farce. This is more a case of the latter than the former. In particular, the spoliation of "Superman" and comics in general is a way-station.
Cosmopolitan Globalism is just something which will play the role of placeholder so that the "unwashed masses" who are unemployed, young, childless and bombarded with libertine excesses, processed foods, etc stay in line. It's actually quite simple. The Culture Wars and the "victory" of the Lefties in said area is a Necessary first step to prepare for Actual War.
The Next Big War against the Eurasian Powers (Russia + China and their allies) requires the Draft. The Goal is to make sure that the population on the one hand (for the older generation) are de-raccinated enough and for the younger ones (i.e. the folks noted earlier above) are brainwashed enough (to think "we are on the right side") to not make too much fuss.
Spoliation of "Superman" seems tiny and insignificant, but it is a big step toward that goal. When you Conscript People (especially to garrison somewhere as Abysmal and Naked to Bombardment as the West Coast of Taiwan or the Farmlands of Poland), you need them to subconsciously internalize a narrative and schema which justifies said force used on them.
Otherwise, even the most risk averse will take up arms (or at the bare minimum just refuse to fight). And you can't have any that; not when you expect most of your Carriers to be Sunk via Hypersonic Glide Vehicles which are almost impossible to intercept. At that point, you have a two-front war (one international and one civil) and you're as good as Conquered.
I'd like to hear more of your thoughts on the Actual War you expect to come, and what your predictions for it are. (Here in the comments, or point me to your blog!)
One of these days I will get around to Blogging. Thanks for holding me in good regard.
My instinct is that the Main invasion force will be through the Arctic. The movement will be through the Ice Caps, through the Poles, through Nunavut, Manitoba, Ontario, Maine and New England, and finally DC. At least, that will be the likely War Plan drawn up by the Eurasians. The other moves don't make much sense:
The Pacific can be traversed via "Island Hopping", but even if the Chinese get Naval Superiority, it will be a very costly. California and the West Coast are easy to defend due to the rugged terrain in many areas and narrow coastlines. And this is the most likely "direction" the Muricans will man defences for.
The Atlantic would mean getting through Continental Europe. France and the UK (though shadows of their former selves) would put up stiff resistance. This is just a poor move; plus Chinese Diplomats are working overtime to try and avoid War with the Europeans (Sinic outreach to the Germans is just one such example).
The Arctic Operation will be a Joint Force ("Eurasian", Sino-Russian, whatever one may choose to call it) and it will only happen when the Chinese develop an EMP weapon strong enough to Blind NORAD for a sufficient enough time. Logistically, it is still not doable. But around the late 2030s to early 2040s? I see it as very plausible.
As for the near future: Taiwan will either fold entirely (no US intervention; they will fall faster than the Afghan National Army due to low morale) or you'll get some token "assistance" from the Muricans (unlikely, given how Joey seems to eager to tell everyone he will "for sure" defend Taiwan), albeit not a complete commitment.
Murica does not have the numbers (with regard to active and reserve personnel) to conduct warfare against the Chinese, nor even enough to garrison Taiwan properly. Plus, half the country has yet to be made *completely* into Deplorables and Second Class Citizens; ergo the time for the Draft has not yet arrived.
The Boomers are almost all dead. Gen-X meanwhile is in general skeptical toward the "Evil Communists Eat Babies!" style 50s-60s era talking points. Drafting them to Defend "our Democratic way of life"? Expect revolt. Gen-Z and Millennials are the target now a la Culture War Spoliation and "Make the World Better!" drivel.
Unfortunately, those two generations tend to be physically less fit, plus more likely to fall prey to Hedonic impulses. "Fight to the death to protect our Democratic Way of Life!" is unlikely to get them motivated enough. In addition, many of them have divided loyalties and may even choose to assist the Eurasians in the coming invasion.
So in general, I see Murica and "her allies" unable to get much out of the Draft, other than open Revolt. It will be far less than (say) if they implement it now; but the revolt would still be sufficient to Balkanize the North American Continent very rapidly. By this time (late 2030s and early 40s) the invasion will occur.
Based on Past Historical examples, and factoring in the Heterogeneity of Murican Society, no Unifying basis left (a la the purge of WASP-notions by the SJWs), a Two Front War (one Civil and one an Invading Force), etc; I expect a Total Rout. This will be effectively a "Carthago Delenda Est" v2.0 in mere months and years.
The Chinese in general are very sentimental. I have been there twice; and that is my instinct regarding them. They will be very Brutal with the massacres and then post facto justify it as "revenge" for the Century of Humiliation suffered at the hands of the "white man". Also, as a Civilization (example: the Han-Xiongnu wars) they are very thorough regarding purges. "Kill off 10 generations" is not just empty talk.
You'll see Historical Revision of a massive scale; "show trials", hunting down of technocrats and scientists for building 'inhumane weapons', etc, etc. One of the reasons the Culture Wars of Today are so vicious is because the perpetrators want to be on the "good graces" of Chinese rage and have an exit door a la "The Evil HUWHYTEs dunnit!" It won't work I think; even the Jews will likely be impacted.
Overall, by the end of this Century; you'll see world trade, migration flows, etc come back to the World Island of Afro-Eurasia. North America (after the "Salting") will be heavily depopulated; many of its peoples outright purged or (some more "lucky" ones) sold off into (what is effectively) new "slavery" for being born into (by now the Historical Revisionism and Cruelty kicks in) the "Accursed Race that almost destroyed the world".
A dark and depressing prediction indeed. To clarify, do you see the events happening in the West as being brought about by China to weaken us, or as the last gasp of our ruling class to organize some way to resist the imminent fall? I could read some of your comments as going either way.
My own opinion is that the Chinese do intend to become the globe's next hegemon -- they would return to being its rightful hegemon -- and are planning accordingly. What remains unclear to me is whether the depopulation of the earth (e.g. collapsing birth rates, low T counts, etc.) will leave anybody interested in that sort of "big war". It's hard to wage war for land when your population is shrinking. I could therefore see all of the above happening but without an actual invasion -- some mix of cyberwarfare, biowarfare, and EMPs to cripple us, followed by destruction of a few cities and then regime change that implements their desired policies on their behalf, without the need of invading at all.
I think it is more the latter (i.e. the elites staving off their inevitable Demise). The Culture Wars are their way of "killing two birds with one stone". On the one hand it creates a sub-human class of "deplorables" to draw upon during the Inevitable Draft; whilst on the other hand it gives them an "off ramp" if they are defeated; blaming it all on the "Evil White Man".
Their Ultimate Miscalculation however is with regard to *how little* revolt historically is often needed to Balkanize a nation. In general, you only need one Spontaneous, well organized mass in many cases (example: the Bastille Storming in France). China is more the guy who has "Wised Up" to this Con and is taking advantage and kicking a man while he's down.
That being said, there is no doubt in my mind that they have the requisite resources (manpower, minerals, etc) to out-produce the Atlanticists and win. It's just that the incompetent elites have "accelerated" the Delenda Est via this nonsense of "let's make half the country lesser than Vermin". Had they not done so; China would have needed an extra decade or two.
China and India have always been in the 20-25% range for Real GDP numbers, pre-1700 CE. As far back as 300 BCE you have that trend hold; prior to that it was the Fertile Crescent, Persia, Egypt, etc which was the "Economic Nexus" of the world. So in their view; they are just going back to "normal" and unseating the "Usurper" that is Murica.
I think you're definitely correct that moving forward, these nations (Murica, Russia, China, etc) will have an increased problem of "motivating" their populations to fight. The autocratic regimes though will be able to better get that done in a "passable" manner a la appeals to Patriotism, Revenge, Honour, etc. At least, that's what my instincts say.
Also, The UN Projections for population need to be taken with a grain of salt. They get these sorts of things wildly wrong all the time. I think back in the 80s (for example) they predicted the Pakistani fertility rate to drop into the 2.1-2.5 range by 2020... and yet here we are an it is well in the 3+ range and actually showing signs of *increasing*.
In a similar vein; I think a lot of these more detrimental sociological trends (especially the low-T counts) are more a symptom of the inherent Dysgenic lifestyle one pursues when under the yoke of these Globalist blokes. There could definitely be a "normalization" in the future when the yoke loosens; so I take the "population slump" narrative more skeptically overall.