That mirrors the sentiment I have heard from many active-duty friends. The vaccine mandate, in particular, seems to have deeply offended a lot of them.
Add in the fact that a large portion of the population would immediately believe such an attack to be a hoax or false flag orchestrated by our own government, and you have it causing more division than cohesion.
They may not do so at first; but when the tens of millions of Eurasians start landing on CONUS-proper... they will Struggle, Fight, Gnaw, Bleed, etc with every fibre of their Being.
Even the most cowardly of Trash will Struggle with every Fibre of his Being (and Be Utterly Annihilated along with his 14 generations) if he only knew the stakes (i.e. Complete Annihilation).
"Unified Command" can be totally vaporized By Hypersonics, and this Desperate "Life's End" Deadman Struggle will nevertheless take place, until Total Annihilation is completed.
The Guerrillas roaming the Interior of CONUS-proper (who by this time have already resorted to Cannibalism and all other "Taboos") along with the remnants of what drug-addled, lobotomized, genetically modified, etc force remains... will merely hasten the Reprisals from the Vengeance-seeking Eurasians a la indiscriminate Salting of CONUS-proper via Sarmats and Dongfengs.
Normal "Logics" of Human Behaviour need to be thrown out the window to analyze this future conflict; even if we are to use the lens of "motivation vs de-motivation".
Interesting results. As I read along I thought several times that you were being too generous by half in your assessment of the US. In the end it didn't matter: even with those generous assessments, it doesn't look good for America.
As I was doing it, I tried very hard *not* to keep a running tally in my head, so that I could rate each section separately without biasing towards some outcome. I was quite surprised at the end to see how badly the US fared, because I thought I'd been generous with my American ratings....
Sep 1, 2022·edited Sep 1, 2022Liked by Tree of Woe
I have nothing to add or take away here, only to provide some extra reading material (links) by others who are and have already looked at individual parts of this puzzle that is the 'West'.
- all of the American Affairs Journals apart for the archive are direct links to singular articles. (They publish large compelation pieces of everything writen every 3 months of the year).
Thank you but I need no praise, I simply believe that it's ones duty to share information/ knowledge with others when it is important, especially when it comes to analysis.
All I will state simply is that the American and *Western* economies are run only on the stock markets (financial) and that the banks (central or otherwise) play to the tune of the stock market not the other way around like many still think. Whether that be the DR or others.
If the war gets serious, then America's position is a lite version of Russia going into World War II. Stalin had gutted his officer corps and starved out the land we now call the Breadbasket of Europe. Soviet life sciences were as badly corrupted as social sciences are in the US today.
But when the fertilizer hit the fan, Stalin pulled a massive U-Turn. Power was returned to the government vs. the Party. Competence was again OK. Patriotism and even religion went back in style.
---
For all the nonsense of our current administration, our cult of mediocrity is much shallower than it was in the Soviet Union. There are still competent people in our universities who are currently keeping their heads down.
Likewise, we could become energy independent again in short order. When fuel for battleships is at issue, utopian dreams of an emissions free future can get put on hold. We have the resources and know where they are. And we have plenty of competent expertise when it comes to drilling for oil and gas.
Restoring our civilian manufacturing capabilities is more of a challenge. Some of our factories have been mothballed beyond the point of easy restoration. We might have to do without new televisions for a while. On the other hand, we have plenty of experts for building military hardware, including planes and warships. And we are a few environmental regulation exemptions away from manufacturing computer chips.
---
Note also that the US went into World War II with industry half mothballed due to bad economic policies, and a population which was not enthusiastic for war. We had a standby core military with many recruits who were given the choice of join the military or go to jail. See the movie "The Caine Mutiny."
We turned on a dime when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor.
----
China and/or Russia can beat us on the morale front if we don't get directly attacked, but we do have to send troops abroad. Sending weapons abroad is a morale booster for Congressional districts with defense production industries. Where I see morale failing is if China captures Taiwan. I doubt we have the will to liberate Taiwan once taken.
The scarier scenario is China going all in before we turn ourselves around. What if they do have the ability to sink our navy? What if some of those Chinese immigrants in STEM are moles? What if they take away our some of our resource rich territory before we fully wake up.
We have the long and medium term ability to build chips, warships, missiles, guns, pharmaceuticals, etc. We can live without a great deal of the cheap Chinese merchandise we get at Walmart. We do have an unregulated militia of extraordinary magnitude.
But China has some serious numbers and a serious manufacturing base. The last time we fought the Chinese, they didn't have enough guns for their infantry. Soldiers were expected to pick up the guns of their fallen comrades.
"China and/or Russia can beat us on the morale front if we don't get directly attacked, but we do have to send troops abroad. "
I think this is true. If I were designing a commercial wargame, I would model American National Will such that it greatly *increases* if we suffer casualties in home territories, but greatly *decreases* as we suffer casualties in other theaters. I would model Chinese and Russians as being affected much less by casualties. Russian National Will would increase if/when enemies encroach into Greater Russia and decrease when it has no threats in its big borders.
Observing the Tree of Woe (aka Empire of Lies) from the other side of the planet (Australia), it seems that the US government has managed to alienate working class white males from the South - which also happens to be the demographic that historically makes up the bulk of the bullet-catchers in the military, and white working class males are especially heavily represented in the 'elite' trigger-pullers ("Special Forces" group photos look like Proud Boys group shots KEK).
The 'white bits' of "5-oh" are also heavily overweight ex-mil - and not just from doughnuts.
If German, French, and UK forward energy prices are remotely replicated in the US, there are going to be quite a few ex-mil LEOs who think "They're not paying me enough to stay on what is obviously the wrong side" - at which point shit starts to get real because THEY will be the 'roaming bands of marauders' that are the largely-mythical reason why we supposedly need State production of security.
PROTIP: if SHTF in the States, do not assume that a smiling white guy in BDUs is a potential ally. The dominant strategy is just to light him up - this is a situation where Type II error is better than Type I. Make sure you know where his mates are likely to be, because he won't be coming up all friendly-like without having someone on overwatch.
That's a grim possibility. If US governments become so bankrupt that they cannot continue to operate prisons and maintain a police/military force, then we'll get a spill of angry violent felons simultaneous with angry ex-LEO and no one to police either.
"Most importantly, I believe that virtually all of the ground fighting will take place outside of the homelands of the antagonists."
This might be true, but I'm not sure its as important as you think. The problem is that if 1 side starts to lose, and decides the issue is important enough, they'll attack the homeland with non-nuclear weapons.
I'd argue that nuclear weapons saved civilization, as they showed a bright line past which civilizations could be ended. At some point between 1945 and now, probably closer to 1945, technology became such that civilization could be ended without recourse to nukes. We creeped across that line without knowing it, because the bright line of nukes was already there.
Which means that if 1 side starts to lose a global proxy war, it might decide that an oil refinery blowing up will let the other side know they need to stop pushing so hard. Or perhaps covid-69 gets released, killing a mere 1% of the population then going dormant. Or the internet stops working for 24 hours.
Of course this requires that both sides be rational enough to step back from the brink rather than escalating, but if they were rational they wouldn't be in that fucking mess to begin with.
Civilization is remarkably fragile. The Mississippi river has about 200 bridges, which means a mere 200 cruise missiles launched from the Gulf could turn the eastern 1/2 of the country into cannibal mad max land. Or a handful of cruise missiles into Gulf refineries. Or shutting down pipelines with cyber attacks. I'm sure there are any number of horrors sitting in lab freezers, or on hard drives inside vaults, that could wreck things far worse than mere inflation and poor economic decisions have been doing.
Let me state upfront: I agree with your assessment. I think nuclear weapons will be treated like poison gas was treated in WW2 (taboo) but non-nuclear weapon usage will gradually escalate into true horror. In WWII, we didn't invade Japan but we destroyed it all the same. In WWIII, the same will happen, eventually.
Having said that:
1) The reason I harp on the notion that the ground fighting will take place outside of the homelands is that a lot of American commentators tend to believe (a) "we'd never be so crazy as to invade China or Russia," (b) "no one would be crazy enough to invade America and even if they wanted to they can't", so therefore "no war is possible." My point is to stress that war is altogether possible, including total war, without invasion.
2) The reason I harp on the fact that nuclear weapons won't be used is that many commentators tend to believe that nukes *will* be used, and that therefore the next war will be short. And, if the next war is going to be short, then the military should be configured to deliver maximum damage in a short time, and long-term mobilization and manpower doesn't matter. But since I don't think nukes will be used, I don't think the war will be short, and thus I think manpower and mobilization DO matter.
WW2 took place when the West still had lingering notions of "Who we are as a civilization and peoples", at least... the leaders of the West were well-read *enough* (far less so mind you than their ancestors of some 100 years back) to entertain those notions.
The same does not hold true for the "leaders" of the West today, who are often more ceremonial and serve as mere figureheads (i.e. so that the public/masses who go and vote do not pick up the pitchforks since 'their vote counted' and whatnot).
There is also the fact that unified command after Disastrous Defeats (the Sicilian Expedition being the earliest recorded example in Western Antiquity) fractures and evaporates rapidly.
Especially so if Yankee-land has hundreds of overseas bases which overnight will become bands of Cannibalistic, Rape-y Nomads being hunted down by the local populace (sort of like the Werewolf and Witch hunts of the past) once the preliminary Salvos take out C4ISR.
Taboos only exist if one possesses the luxury to contemplate about Ethics in any capacity to begin with. No such things exist however in a War with Annihilation as its end result.
1) It's therefore entirely possible that the "Unified Command" Yankee-land will try and fight the war with (in the opening hours and days) will be COMPELLED (by man's more base, vile, survival oriented instincts brought about via FIRE-Impact) to splinter.
In that scenario, a rogue Drugged up Colonel who wants to Cannibalize, Necrophilize, etc with his "Band of Brothers" the Dirty Y*****s, and to do so *even though CONUS tells him not to*, is entirely within the cards. Now just multiply that a few hundred times to account for all the Bases Yankee-land would lose grasp over once hostilities commence.
... And you get the picture, and why Total Carthage-Style Salting of CONUS is the end result. It will be entirely justified by the "International Community".
2) Similar line of reasoning to (1).
Addendum being that even if the 90-100 million in the first 5 hours (as per Princeton with regard to estimating Nuclear deaths) then snowballs into the upper limit of 2 billion or so; that would still (on a percentage basis) pale in comparison to the Bronze Age Collapse (which saw half the Human Race Rape, Kill, Cannibalize and *insert all other manner of atrocity here for which words have not been properly coined*)
25% of the Human Race being extinguished doesn't mean that the fighting will be short. It means that it will be long; ending only in Utter Annihilation (genetic, physical removal, etc).
The problem with your prediction/ fantasy of the US being destroyed is that the US can do the same back to whoever the US decides to blame. There will be no swarthy troops landing in the US to exact revenge; as soon as the gloves come off many Whites are going to be "making sure they have good local schools." Additional coloreds will get the same treatment.
It's possible, even likely, that some horrible chem/bio concoction gets spread on the US, but then the same will happen to whoever we blame for that. And the US is quite good at picking someone to blame and wreck their country.
That factor is already considered with regard to how I see things unfolding (i.e. namely 200+ million Chinese people getting vaporized). That number is arrived at after consulting white papers written on Nuclear Casualty estimates.
Historically, China as a nation has been put to the sword viciously. The Japanese murdered some 30+ million (out of some 400+ million Chinese). So, this time around the 200+ million would not "dent" their resolve in any way. It would simply accelerate the Delenda Est of Yankee-Land. Again: No "motivation" needed if your family is vaporized by Nukes.
"White people" do not fight when the chips are down. When the Aussie govt tyrannically cracked down on Gun ownership in the early 2000s; there was no "you'll pry em out of my cold hands" momentum. That's all Talk. When it comes to Action; it's very clear what contemporary trends (with regard to sociological trends, cultural patterns, etc) suggest: Utter Capitulation.
All they are good at is kicking around technologically inferior guerrilla forces... and even then they can't *WIN*! Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc are key examples. Martyanov put it bluntly:
"Murica has a paltry military history, relative to the other Key Civilizations; especially Russia, whose storied military history and expertise is longer than Murica has been a nation"
Carthage Will be Destroyed. It happened Once, it will happen again; except this time the job will be properly completed once the level of atrocity reaches a certain fever pitch.
That level will be reached... once new words, terms, etc have to be actively coined day to day to even speak of the level of atrocity being inflicted on the Conquered Yankee.
The past has only so much inertia that one can draw from.
The fact that Europe and its heirs had a good 2-3 centuries, and is now about to be completely swallowed is rather pathetic, if we are to compare said timeframe to how long civilizations-proper have been around.
South Africa is the canary in the coal mine for what will happen next. The Boers there get lynched, ritually humiliated, massacred, etc on a daily basis out of sheer giddiness.
The rulers of South Africa do so in a slow, “drip by drip” manner. Yankee land post Conquest will likewise be ravaged in said manner.
The end result will be South Africa times 100… a defeated peoples who can do nothing but draw on the inertia from the past to keep their false sense of hope alive.
But all that comes crashing down ( for each individual person ) once the torture, atrocities, etc inflicted are dialed up beyond a certain uncanny valley for pain and misery.
Sep 1, 2022·edited Sep 1, 2022Liked by Tree of Woe
Very good points raised.
The German Philosopher Peter Sloterdijk once noted: "Nobody has anytime for an entire generation anymore". Whilst will is no doubt important thus, this notion is key here:
The point being made by Sloterdijk that "maturation" a la the nominal 20-30 years needed to truly polish a generation (i.e. will, values, etc) is no longer pursued in earnest, but rather leaders (and "elites") of most Western nations try and compress that down to a measly 2-5 years or mere months even in certain cases. And so this comes down to the following:
The Posthuman, Shiny, Sexy, "Sciency", Transhumanist pursuing Elite of Yankee-land may just decide to go full-Chimera mode. Why bother with "boosting morale", if one can just Drug, Genetically Engineer, Lobotomize, etc and "Cheat" in that manner to try and Pursue Victory?
During Ike's presidency and the twilight of the Korean War, Yankee-High Command proposed to said president a Full Scale invasion of the Chinese mainland.
The plan involved an invasion force of some 800k Yankees, who would land after several dozen Nukes vaporized some hundred million "Y*****s".
The idea being to use Taiwan (as the Japanese had for much of the Second Sino-Japanese War) as the launchpad and "unsinkable aircraft carrier" to ravage the Chinese people into surrender.
Why bring this up? Well, even though Ike ultimately shot down the proposal (Murican historians say it was because he wanted his progeny to pursue peaceful trade and commercial ties with the Chinese, this likely is a lie; but I will desist on going off on this tangent over here), this engagement plan is nevertheless on file if Yankee-land is in need of it in the near future.
As such, World War Next might very well involve said Barbarism by Yankee-land. Drugs, Lobotomies, etc therefore suddenly become not only essential but seemingly a necessity.
How else would one unleash millions of Savage Yankees onto the Chinese people to Rape, Pillage, Kill, Loot, etc ... in a hellscape that is already filled with tens of millions wailing due Nuclear Radiation Burns, Cannibalistic pursuits, etc?
This coming world war will likely be "BEYOND Human Will", a la one would need to go to those psychological states BEYOND "normal" pursuant modes of meaning/relevance vs irrelevance/vileness.
Those Great powers who can bridge said gap... the normal human modes noted earlier; will have the advantage it seems with regard the "winning" the overall conflict.
Namely, how does one get VILE ACTION whilst not tapping into the normal modes of Human Motivation? Drugs, Lobotomies, etc on the one end, and Revenge, Annihilation of one's Kin in their entirety, etc on the other end. This will be the calculus that needs examining.
DARPA and DOD are open about their pursuit of such technologies. As always it is disguised in euphemistic language but functionally the goal is human soldiers with metahuman capabilities. (It's noteworthy that official Russian media is already accusing Ukraine of using drugs to improve the capacities / resilience of their soldiers.)
In general I remain of the belief that neither side will attack each other's homefront, at least not until the war is long long underway, but if either one did, it'll certainly lead to brutality of an unchecked sort not seen in almost a century.
Oh yes; and that "metahuman potential" will be what the Murican Empire will have tap into en masse to make up for the shortfalls in labour, infantry, etc relative to the Eurasian bloc.
I guess the reason I bring up the Homeland invasion at an earlier setting (btw, I too think like you, it will be more an endgame than an opening move) is because there is no semblance of "unified command" on Team Murica's side. This is actually a feature (not a bug) of late stage Republics/"Democracies" in their transition to *Full* Tyranny.
The Athenians mounted the Sicilian Expedition with little to no Political Gravitas behind it. Alcibiades himself (the chief architect of the plan) was recalled to stand trial.
Thucydides touches on the intrigue, manoeuvring, etc on that whole episode (and subsequent ones) after that whole disaster and rout. More and more activity (be it military expeditions, skirmishes, etc) from that point onward was determined by Fiat and Whim.
Athens after the disaster of Sicily devolved into a Chaotic mess whereby Splintered forces all across the Mediterranean of Athenian Remnants acted, willed, etc in ways that were totally at odds with with ought to have been the "decision making body" back home.
Yankee-land already has cut out Congress entirely from the War-Peace process (they no longer "vote" to declare war anyhow). So it seems entirely possible that a rogue colonel, post coup, could get his posse all riled and drugged up for a "Y***** cleaning" operation.
The mere fact that Yankee land has hundreds of bases with at most a couple hundred troops here and there (all totally Naked to anything approaching Mach 5+ and gliding below 100,000 feet) may just compound this very natural course of affairs.
America's national will is an interesting topic. I think much of it is gone. The Globalists who rule over us would engineer some false flag to 'rally the citizens' and it would probably fall flat. I'm trying to imagine Mitch McConnell, Linsey Graham, and Nancy Pelosi trying to whip up vigor among the populations who've classically gone to war for the good ole USA and I simply can't see it.
National will to fight is gone in America. The elites have alienated the population. And way to many have their eyes open to the lies and propaganda.
Even if another Pearl Harbor or 9/11 took place, most of those that would have enlisted would not do so today.
That mirrors the sentiment I have heard from many active-duty friends. The vaccine mandate, in particular, seems to have deeply offended a lot of them.
Add in the fact that a large portion of the population would immediately believe such an attack to be a hoax or false flag orchestrated by our own government, and you have it causing more division than cohesion.
They may not do so at first; but when the tens of millions of Eurasians start landing on CONUS-proper... they will Struggle, Fight, Gnaw, Bleed, etc with every fibre of their Being.
Even the most cowardly of Trash will Struggle with every Fibre of his Being (and Be Utterly Annihilated along with his 14 generations) if he only knew the stakes (i.e. Complete Annihilation).
"Unified Command" can be totally vaporized By Hypersonics, and this Desperate "Life's End" Deadman Struggle will nevertheless take place, until Total Annihilation is completed.
The Guerrillas roaming the Interior of CONUS-proper (who by this time have already resorted to Cannibalism and all other "Taboos") along with the remnants of what drug-addled, lobotomized, genetically modified, etc force remains... will merely hasten the Reprisals from the Vengeance-seeking Eurasians a la indiscriminate Salting of CONUS-proper via Sarmats and Dongfengs.
Normal "Logics" of Human Behaviour need to be thrown out the window to analyze this future conflict; even if we are to use the lens of "motivation vs de-motivation".
Interesting results. As I read along I thought several times that you were being too generous by half in your assessment of the US. In the end it didn't matter: even with those generous assessments, it doesn't look good for America.
As I was doing it, I tried very hard *not* to keep a running tally in my head, so that I could rate each section separately without biasing towards some outcome. I was quite surprised at the end to see how badly the US fared, because I thought I'd been generous with my American ratings....
I have nothing to add or take away here, only to provide some extra reading material (links) by others who are and have already looked at individual parts of this puzzle that is the 'West'.
- all of the American Affairs Journals apart for the archive are direct links to singular articles. (They publish large compelation pieces of everything writen every 3 months of the year).
https://americanaffairsjournal.org/archives/
https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2022/05/the-stock-market-model/
https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/05/the-american-way-of-innovation-and-its-deficiencies/
https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2022/08/the-retreat-of-dividends-and-the-changing-nature-of-the-stock-market/
https://americanaffairsjournal.org/2018/05/the-american-way-of-innovation-and-its-deficiencies/
- use this if you can not access any the pages in full (may be behind paywall)
https://www.printfriendly.com/
- this chap has anumber of posts (his own website) covering the Econ and political situation in the USA (hes a yankie)
https://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=Market-Ticker
- this last link is about the difference between the financial system of USA Vs the manufacturimg system of the Chinese
https://www.unz.com/mhudson/the-consequences-of-moving-from-industrial-to-financial-capitalism/
These are really good articles. Thanks for sharing. I knew Market Ticker but not American Affairs.
Thank you but I need no praise, I simply believe that it's ones duty to share information/ knowledge with others when it is important, especially when it comes to analysis.
All I will state simply is that the American and *Western* economies are run only on the stock markets (financial) and that the banks (central or otherwise) play to the tune of the stock market not the other way around like many still think. Whether that be the DR or others.
If the war gets serious, then America's position is a lite version of Russia going into World War II. Stalin had gutted his officer corps and starved out the land we now call the Breadbasket of Europe. Soviet life sciences were as badly corrupted as social sciences are in the US today.
But when the fertilizer hit the fan, Stalin pulled a massive U-Turn. Power was returned to the government vs. the Party. Competence was again OK. Patriotism and even religion went back in style.
---
For all the nonsense of our current administration, our cult of mediocrity is much shallower than it was in the Soviet Union. There are still competent people in our universities who are currently keeping their heads down.
Likewise, we could become energy independent again in short order. When fuel for battleships is at issue, utopian dreams of an emissions free future can get put on hold. We have the resources and know where they are. And we have plenty of competent expertise when it comes to drilling for oil and gas.
Restoring our civilian manufacturing capabilities is more of a challenge. Some of our factories have been mothballed beyond the point of easy restoration. We might have to do without new televisions for a while. On the other hand, we have plenty of experts for building military hardware, including planes and warships. And we are a few environmental regulation exemptions away from manufacturing computer chips.
---
Note also that the US went into World War II with industry half mothballed due to bad economic policies, and a population which was not enthusiastic for war. We had a standby core military with many recruits who were given the choice of join the military or go to jail. See the movie "The Caine Mutiny."
We turned on a dime when the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor.
----
China and/or Russia can beat us on the morale front if we don't get directly attacked, but we do have to send troops abroad. Sending weapons abroad is a morale booster for Congressional districts with defense production industries. Where I see morale failing is if China captures Taiwan. I doubt we have the will to liberate Taiwan once taken.
The scarier scenario is China going all in before we turn ourselves around. What if they do have the ability to sink our navy? What if some of those Chinese immigrants in STEM are moles? What if they take away our some of our resource rich territory before we fully wake up.
We have the long and medium term ability to build chips, warships, missiles, guns, pharmaceuticals, etc. We can live without a great deal of the cheap Chinese merchandise we get at Walmart. We do have an unregulated militia of extraordinary magnitude.
But China has some serious numbers and a serious manufacturing base. The last time we fought the Chinese, they didn't have enough guns for their infantry. Soldiers were expected to pick up the guns of their fallen comrades.
Such is no longer the case.
"China and/or Russia can beat us on the morale front if we don't get directly attacked, but we do have to send troops abroad. "
I think this is true. If I were designing a commercial wargame, I would model American National Will such that it greatly *increases* if we suffer casualties in home territories, but greatly *decreases* as we suffer casualties in other theaters. I would model Chinese and Russians as being affected much less by casualties. Russian National Will would increase if/when enemies encroach into Greater Russia and decrease when it has no threats in its big borders.
Observing the Tree of Woe (aka Empire of Lies) from the other side of the planet (Australia), it seems that the US government has managed to alienate working class white males from the South - which also happens to be the demographic that historically makes up the bulk of the bullet-catchers in the military, and white working class males are especially heavily represented in the 'elite' trigger-pullers ("Special Forces" group photos look like Proud Boys group shots KEK).
The 'white bits' of "5-oh" are also heavily overweight ex-mil - and not just from doughnuts.
If German, French, and UK forward energy prices are remotely replicated in the US, there are going to be quite a few ex-mil LEOs who think "They're not paying me enough to stay on what is obviously the wrong side" - at which point shit starts to get real because THEY will be the 'roaming bands of marauders' that are the largely-mythical reason why we supposedly need State production of security.
PROTIP: if SHTF in the States, do not assume that a smiling white guy in BDUs is a potential ally. The dominant strategy is just to light him up - this is a situation where Type II error is better than Type I. Make sure you know where his mates are likely to be, because he won't be coming up all friendly-like without having someone on overwatch.
That's a grim possibility. If US governments become so bankrupt that they cannot continue to operate prisons and maintain a police/military force, then we'll get a spill of angry violent felons simultaneous with angry ex-LEO and no one to police either.
"Most importantly, I believe that virtually all of the ground fighting will take place outside of the homelands of the antagonists."
This might be true, but I'm not sure its as important as you think. The problem is that if 1 side starts to lose, and decides the issue is important enough, they'll attack the homeland with non-nuclear weapons.
I'd argue that nuclear weapons saved civilization, as they showed a bright line past which civilizations could be ended. At some point between 1945 and now, probably closer to 1945, technology became such that civilization could be ended without recourse to nukes. We creeped across that line without knowing it, because the bright line of nukes was already there.
Which means that if 1 side starts to lose a global proxy war, it might decide that an oil refinery blowing up will let the other side know they need to stop pushing so hard. Or perhaps covid-69 gets released, killing a mere 1% of the population then going dormant. Or the internet stops working for 24 hours.
Of course this requires that both sides be rational enough to step back from the brink rather than escalating, but if they were rational they wouldn't be in that fucking mess to begin with.
Civilization is remarkably fragile. The Mississippi river has about 200 bridges, which means a mere 200 cruise missiles launched from the Gulf could turn the eastern 1/2 of the country into cannibal mad max land. Or a handful of cruise missiles into Gulf refineries. Or shutting down pipelines with cyber attacks. I'm sure there are any number of horrors sitting in lab freezers, or on hard drives inside vaults, that could wreck things far worse than mere inflation and poor economic decisions have been doing.
Let me state upfront: I agree with your assessment. I think nuclear weapons will be treated like poison gas was treated in WW2 (taboo) but non-nuclear weapon usage will gradually escalate into true horror. In WWII, we didn't invade Japan but we destroyed it all the same. In WWIII, the same will happen, eventually.
Having said that:
1) The reason I harp on the notion that the ground fighting will take place outside of the homelands is that a lot of American commentators tend to believe (a) "we'd never be so crazy as to invade China or Russia," (b) "no one would be crazy enough to invade America and even if they wanted to they can't", so therefore "no war is possible." My point is to stress that war is altogether possible, including total war, without invasion.
2) The reason I harp on the fact that nuclear weapons won't be used is that many commentators tend to believe that nukes *will* be used, and that therefore the next war will be short. And, if the next war is going to be short, then the military should be configured to deliver maximum damage in a short time, and long-term mobilization and manpower doesn't matter. But since I don't think nukes will be used, I don't think the war will be short, and thus I think manpower and mobilization DO matter.
WW2 took place when the West still had lingering notions of "Who we are as a civilization and peoples", at least... the leaders of the West were well-read *enough* (far less so mind you than their ancestors of some 100 years back) to entertain those notions.
The same does not hold true for the "leaders" of the West today, who are often more ceremonial and serve as mere figureheads (i.e. so that the public/masses who go and vote do not pick up the pitchforks since 'their vote counted' and whatnot).
There is also the fact that unified command after Disastrous Defeats (the Sicilian Expedition being the earliest recorded example in Western Antiquity) fractures and evaporates rapidly.
Especially so if Yankee-land has hundreds of overseas bases which overnight will become bands of Cannibalistic, Rape-y Nomads being hunted down by the local populace (sort of like the Werewolf and Witch hunts of the past) once the preliminary Salvos take out C4ISR.
Taboos only exist if one possesses the luxury to contemplate about Ethics in any capacity to begin with. No such things exist however in a War with Annihilation as its end result.
1) It's therefore entirely possible that the "Unified Command" Yankee-land will try and fight the war with (in the opening hours and days) will be COMPELLED (by man's more base, vile, survival oriented instincts brought about via FIRE-Impact) to splinter.
In that scenario, a rogue Drugged up Colonel who wants to Cannibalize, Necrophilize, etc with his "Band of Brothers" the Dirty Y*****s, and to do so *even though CONUS tells him not to*, is entirely within the cards. Now just multiply that a few hundred times to account for all the Bases Yankee-land would lose grasp over once hostilities commence.
... And you get the picture, and why Total Carthage-Style Salting of CONUS is the end result. It will be entirely justified by the "International Community".
2) Similar line of reasoning to (1).
Addendum being that even if the 90-100 million in the first 5 hours (as per Princeton with regard to estimating Nuclear deaths) then snowballs into the upper limit of 2 billion or so; that would still (on a percentage basis) pale in comparison to the Bronze Age Collapse (which saw half the Human Race Rape, Kill, Cannibalize and *insert all other manner of atrocity here for which words have not been properly coined*)
25% of the Human Race being extinguished doesn't mean that the fighting will be short. It means that it will be long; ending only in Utter Annihilation (genetic, physical removal, etc).
The problem with your prediction/ fantasy of the US being destroyed is that the US can do the same back to whoever the US decides to blame. There will be no swarthy troops landing in the US to exact revenge; as soon as the gloves come off many Whites are going to be "making sure they have good local schools." Additional coloreds will get the same treatment.
It's possible, even likely, that some horrible chem/bio concoction gets spread on the US, but then the same will happen to whoever we blame for that. And the US is quite good at picking someone to blame and wreck their country.
That factor is already considered with regard to how I see things unfolding (i.e. namely 200+ million Chinese people getting vaporized). That number is arrived at after consulting white papers written on Nuclear Casualty estimates.
Historically, China as a nation has been put to the sword viciously. The Japanese murdered some 30+ million (out of some 400+ million Chinese). So, this time around the 200+ million would not "dent" their resolve in any way. It would simply accelerate the Delenda Est of Yankee-Land. Again: No "motivation" needed if your family is vaporized by Nukes.
"White people" do not fight when the chips are down. When the Aussie govt tyrannically cracked down on Gun ownership in the early 2000s; there was no "you'll pry em out of my cold hands" momentum. That's all Talk. When it comes to Action; it's very clear what contemporary trends (with regard to sociological trends, cultural patterns, etc) suggest: Utter Capitulation.
All they are good at is kicking around technologically inferior guerrilla forces... and even then they can't *WIN*! Afghanistan, Vietnam, etc are key examples. Martyanov put it bluntly:
"Murica has a paltry military history, relative to the other Key Civilizations; especially Russia, whose storied military history and expertise is longer than Murica has been a nation"
Carthage Will be Destroyed. It happened Once, it will happen again; except this time the job will be properly completed once the level of atrocity reaches a certain fever pitch.
That level will be reached... once new words, terms, etc have to be actively coined day to day to even speak of the level of atrocity being inflicted on the Conquered Yankee.
""White people" do not fight when the chips are down."
http://cdn1.vox-cdn.com/assets/4659723/Screen_Shot_2014-06-23_at_5.07.38_PM2.png
The past has only so much inertia that one can draw from.
The fact that Europe and its heirs had a good 2-3 centuries, and is now about to be completely swallowed is rather pathetic, if we are to compare said timeframe to how long civilizations-proper have been around.
South Africa is the canary in the coal mine for what will happen next. The Boers there get lynched, ritually humiliated, massacred, etc on a daily basis out of sheer giddiness.
The rulers of South Africa do so in a slow, “drip by drip” manner. Yankee land post Conquest will likewise be ravaged in said manner.
The end result will be South Africa times 100… a defeated peoples who can do nothing but draw on the inertia from the past to keep their false sense of hope alive.
But all that comes crashing down ( for each individual person ) once the torture, atrocities, etc inflicted are dialed up beyond a certain uncanny valley for pain and misery.
Very good points raised.
The German Philosopher Peter Sloterdijk once noted: "Nobody has anytime for an entire generation anymore". Whilst will is no doubt important thus, this notion is key here:
The point being made by Sloterdijk that "maturation" a la the nominal 20-30 years needed to truly polish a generation (i.e. will, values, etc) is no longer pursued in earnest, but rather leaders (and "elites") of most Western nations try and compress that down to a measly 2-5 years or mere months even in certain cases. And so this comes down to the following:
The Posthuman, Shiny, Sexy, "Sciency", Transhumanist pursuing Elite of Yankee-land may just decide to go full-Chimera mode. Why bother with "boosting morale", if one can just Drug, Genetically Engineer, Lobotomize, etc and "Cheat" in that manner to try and Pursue Victory?
During Ike's presidency and the twilight of the Korean War, Yankee-High Command proposed to said president a Full Scale invasion of the Chinese mainland.
The plan involved an invasion force of some 800k Yankees, who would land after several dozen Nukes vaporized some hundred million "Y*****s".
The idea being to use Taiwan (as the Japanese had for much of the Second Sino-Japanese War) as the launchpad and "unsinkable aircraft carrier" to ravage the Chinese people into surrender.
Why bring this up? Well, even though Ike ultimately shot down the proposal (Murican historians say it was because he wanted his progeny to pursue peaceful trade and commercial ties with the Chinese, this likely is a lie; but I will desist on going off on this tangent over here), this engagement plan is nevertheless on file if Yankee-land is in need of it in the near future.
As such, World War Next might very well involve said Barbarism by Yankee-land. Drugs, Lobotomies, etc therefore suddenly become not only essential but seemingly a necessity.
How else would one unleash millions of Savage Yankees onto the Chinese people to Rape, Pillage, Kill, Loot, etc ... in a hellscape that is already filled with tens of millions wailing due Nuclear Radiation Burns, Cannibalistic pursuits, etc?
This coming world war will likely be "BEYOND Human Will", a la one would need to go to those psychological states BEYOND "normal" pursuant modes of meaning/relevance vs irrelevance/vileness.
Those Great powers who can bridge said gap... the normal human modes noted earlier; will have the advantage it seems with regard the "winning" the overall conflict.
Namely, how does one get VILE ACTION whilst not tapping into the normal modes of Human Motivation? Drugs, Lobotomies, etc on the one end, and Revenge, Annihilation of one's Kin in their entirety, etc on the other end. This will be the calculus that needs examining.
DARPA and DOD are open about their pursuit of such technologies. As always it is disguised in euphemistic language but functionally the goal is human soldiers with metahuman capabilities. (It's noteworthy that official Russian media is already accusing Ukraine of using drugs to improve the capacities / resilience of their soldiers.)
In general I remain of the belief that neither side will attack each other's homefront, at least not until the war is long long underway, but if either one did, it'll certainly lead to brutality of an unchecked sort not seen in almost a century.
Oh yes; and that "metahuman potential" will be what the Murican Empire will have tap into en masse to make up for the shortfalls in labour, infantry, etc relative to the Eurasian bloc.
I guess the reason I bring up the Homeland invasion at an earlier setting (btw, I too think like you, it will be more an endgame than an opening move) is because there is no semblance of "unified command" on Team Murica's side. This is actually a feature (not a bug) of late stage Republics/"Democracies" in their transition to *Full* Tyranny.
The Athenians mounted the Sicilian Expedition with little to no Political Gravitas behind it. Alcibiades himself (the chief architect of the plan) was recalled to stand trial.
Thucydides touches on the intrigue, manoeuvring, etc on that whole episode (and subsequent ones) after that whole disaster and rout. More and more activity (be it military expeditions, skirmishes, etc) from that point onward was determined by Fiat and Whim.
Athens after the disaster of Sicily devolved into a Chaotic mess whereby Splintered forces all across the Mediterranean of Athenian Remnants acted, willed, etc in ways that were totally at odds with with ought to have been the "decision making body" back home.
Yankee-land already has cut out Congress entirely from the War-Peace process (they no longer "vote" to declare war anyhow). So it seems entirely possible that a rogue colonel, post coup, could get his posse all riled and drugged up for a "Y***** cleaning" operation.
The mere fact that Yankee land has hundreds of bases with at most a couple hundred troops here and there (all totally Naked to anything approaching Mach 5+ and gliding below 100,000 feet) may just compound this very natural course of affairs.
America's national will is an interesting topic. I think much of it is gone. The Globalists who rule over us would engineer some false flag to 'rally the citizens' and it would probably fall flat. I'm trying to imagine Mitch McConnell, Linsey Graham, and Nancy Pelosi trying to whip up vigor among the populations who've classically gone to war for the good ole USA and I simply can't see it.
As someone who fought in Iraq as a grunt, I can only say "Good".
For America to endure, it needs to content itself with being a regional power and good neighbor.
Sadly, we're in the twilight years of empire, so it's likely to happen at some point.
I hope it happens before my son is old enough to be drafted.