28 Comments
User's avatar
Fabius Minarchus's avatar

Trump's bombing of Iran's centrifuges has precedent. Israel did it back in the 1990s when Iran's centrifuges were on the surface. War did not break out.

So far, Trump seems to be signalling: " We won't invade you, but you cannot have nuclear bombs. Also, we'd like to end the trade restrictions and make Iran Great Again."

This is a position that allows the Iranian government to save face, and they did so with a perfunctory missile strike on our base in Qatar -- after giving a humanitarian warning. This reminds me of the semi symbolic wars fought between primitive tribes.

And frankly, the bunker buster strikes are consistent Trump policy: respect sovereignty but bomb the shit out of you if you cross the line. Note how he took out ISIS.

----

Frankly, I'm more worried about Trump's over emphasis on illegals who committed other crimes, as well as the Sad Stories I hear from my internationalist libertarian friends. I wish that Trump would ramp up the reward for self-deportation to at least half the price of a mandatory deportation. Be nice, but move millions of incompatible people out of here.

Expand full comment
Ahnaf Ibn Qais's avatar

Except War is already here.

There is no formal cessation of hostilities between Israel & Iran & (as of this writing) we are at most a few hours & days away from the Third Gulf War recommencing.

This is neither Iraq, nor Syria. Iran can actually shoot back, & can hit everything from Prince Sultan base in Saudi Arabia, to even the base at Incerlik.

The logic is now Deterministic:

Either Trump rescues his ZOG overlords (i.e. 'Israel') OR he doesn't.

If he doesn't, Mossad et al will *make sure* he pays a price. & this doesn't stop merely at Assassination... it also can mean 'you will lose Family & relatives Brutally.'

If he does... then it means war, and dozens to hundreds of Casualties at Prince Sultan & other bases which (again) are easier to hit than Tel Aviv & whatnot thanks to (1) Close Proximity, (2) Lower Reaction Time & (3) Less effective Anti Air.

Relevant:

https://www.thefallofthewest.ca/p/the-third-gulf-war-has-begun

Also Relevant:

https://unherd.com/2025/06/could-the-us-army-mutiny/

Expand full comment
Rikard's avatar

Seconded; I think you are completely correct in this assessment.

If I may add something, I think Trump's "I don't think they know what the Hell they are doing" was a very pointed remark not towards Iran but against Netanyahu. A sort-of "Here, we did your dirty work for you - again - and at cost to us - again - so now you get to sit down and shut your yap, Bibi, or we might not be so inclined in the future" without having to state it flat out.

Trump is probably picking up on how tired to the point of violence the entire West is with the endless unsolvable squabble around Israel/Palestine.

And this also serves as notice to the war-for-profit-mongers: "You have Ukraine, make it last because I'm not giving you Iran".

Expand full comment
kertch's avatar

Yes, how does Trump get out of the ambush set for him by Bibi and the Neocons? He doesn't avoid it - he goes through it. He gives them the military action they want, but not the result. Instead of a duel to the death, both sides withdraw with their honor satisfied. Bibi tried to restart the fight, but Trump called him out publicly. The Neocons must be disappointed.

Expand full comment
Jim Toscas's avatar

Be careful— there's obviously a leaker somewhere in your vast organization that's passing copies of your articles to SCOTUS.

Expand full comment
Ahnaf Ibn Qais's avatar

I'll quote Sir Malcom from this piece here ( https://unherd.com/2025/06/could-the-us-army-mutiny/ ) because I think it is relevant here regarding 'what Trump can & can't do:'

>>It seems clear, then, that quite aside from the National Guard, the uniformed military these days is not very reliable either. Enlisted men are restless, suffering from low morale, low pay and an ongoing suicide epidemic. This crisis is in reality far worse than the already grim statistics would indicate; every soldier that takes his own life has a very significant impact on the rest of his unit. The officers, for their part, are jaded, used to dysfunction, and acutely aware of the many military weaknesses that civilian elites either don’t know or care about.

Up to and including Vietnam, most of America’s wars relied on the draft. This meant that politicians always needed to make sure battles didn’t fall too far out of public favour. After Vietnam, where the military nearly fell apart as a result of failing discipline and general political polarisation, the all-volunteer model was adopted instead. This has made various “forever wars” in obscure parts of the world politically possible for America’s leaders: civilians have simply detached themselves from the bloodshed. But the result of this is that it has allowed ordinary Americans to increasingly treat their own soldiers as faceless automata, as distant, obedient servants who will always jump to it, who will always give you the victory you asked for, regardless of how miserable the conditions become. But soldiers, too, have a breaking point.

To bewail the stupidity of regime change in Iran is one thing. But to call up teachers and bus drivers from Wisconsin and Oregon, and expect them to cheerfully march into what already looks like the most unpopular war in all of American history, is quite another. The US’s shrinking circle of regime change enthusiasts might be surprised at how close they are to getting what they ordered. Unfortunately for them, it’s in Washington DC, not Tehran, where the powers that be ought to fear America’s soldiers.<<

There is no off-ramp anymore.

'Israel' will soon restart the War (mere hours & days later from this writing, at most) & Trump will have to choose to step in & assist his ZOG Overlords.

If he doesn’t? Mossad will ensure that he (or his family, relatives, friends, etc.) pays the price.

If he does? It deterministically leads to dead US forces at Prince Sultan & elsewhere.

The DOOM... no longer Cometh, it is *here*.

Pater, you concluded with:

>>Now, with the courts no longer tying his hands, Trump can do what he wants domestically. He has the chance to prove that his platform was more than rhetoric, that he can translate populist will into institutional change. But if he drifts further into global entanglements, seduced by the drama of war or the applause of the foreign policy establishment, then he’ll prove just the opposite.<<

Your Optimism is Nice, but we both know that there is no more 'drifting' left. This scenario (for the reasons noted earlier) ends in a direct conflict. The only doubt remaining is 'how many intermediary steps does it take to get there?' 😉😘

Relevant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7y_hbz6loEo

Expand full comment
Teleros's avatar

A much-needed fix for the US legal system. As for the foreign policy stuff, the bombing of Iran looks very much like kabuki theatre thank goodness.

Expand full comment
Luís Nunes's avatar

TACO 😉

Expand full comment
Buddy's avatar

If you think the bunker busters are chickening out, you are incredibly I’ll-informed

Expand full comment
Luís Nunes's avatar

I've seen the satellite pictures of the Iranians evacuating the place and failing in the tunnels. You obviously have not. Trump chickened out and the Pentagon was very glad he did.

Expand full comment
Viddao's avatar

Good development. I am of the opinion that law and equity should be re-segregated. Having equitable and legal powers in the same judge is too much for them to handle. Have separate courts for law and equity so that they can hold each other accountable. Most legislatures are bicameral so as to add a layer of accountability within a branch of government, why can't the same be done with the judicial branch?

Expand full comment
Luís Nunes's avatar

In a less crazed timeline, in a country in a less deranged state, one would think that what passes for a legislature currently on the US might briefly take a break from fund raising and giving foreign prime ministers 52 standing ovations to find the time to regulate this issue and, you know legislate... 🐸🤔🙄

Expand full comment
__browsing's avatar

If the US is lucky, the war in Iran will have wrapped up with the bunker-busters and Trump can get back to his agenda now. I wish the tax cuts weren't part of it, though.

Expand full comment
groddlo's avatar

Alternate assault on universal (preliminary) injunctions: they allow any random group of people to impose their interpretation of reality onto other people, who don't share their interpretation of reality. That this is done before even a trial is just icing on the cake.

Expand full comment
Uncouth Barbarian's avatar

"With universal injunctions from district judges blocking executive actions at every turn, Trump had been stopped short of pursuing the MAGA platform he was elected to implement. Today’s ruling changes that. It’s a significant victory he could use to restore the momentum to his stalled domestic agenda. "

Hopefully Trump takes the win. It's a step away from the edge of Jungle Law that will be consuming America. If we can't avoid that, then it simply doesn't matter. Because there's no point in pretending that I play by the same rules as someone willing to rip children away from parents to cut off their genitals. Or starve them, take away shelter, shoot them, put them in concentration camps - if they won't take a shot.

So yeah. Maybe its a step away from Jungle Law. But these people aren't my people, and we'll never get along peacefully. It's a lie to even say there's laws or agreements we have between us, because they literally mean different things, philosophically, by laws and agreements, and it just comes down to force with them. Where to me Law is something discovered from God or His creation and ordered to the common good. So how can I have anything but Jungle Law with such a people?

Expand full comment
p3ck3rw00d's avatar

It’s not Jungle Law. It’s “Jungle Law for thee but not for me.” Sign me up for Jungle Law.

Expand full comment
Uncouth Barbarian's avatar

No.

Jungle Law means that there is no real rule of Law. That it really is might makes right, and that's the end of it until the disease is excised, cast out, and burned. Until one side is destroyed.

Because oil and water will never mix. You can either keep them in separate containers, or let them separate in the glass over time. But once some asshole stirs them up, shakes them together, whatever - it takes time for the mix to separate. And it's always subject to getting mixed again, which again, is not something that is ever really a stable state of being.

So, it's not a good situation at all. We're simply going to have to endure the shake out, and likely going to separate the oil and water at some point in the future.

Because Jungle Law is no way to live. People need Real Law, real culture, real Religion, and a real State.

Not this stupid Kayfabe, fake and gay crap that has been haunting us for one hundred years.

Expand full comment
p3ck3rw00d's avatar

Settle down Boomer. You know damned well only one side is allowed to engage in Jungle Law.

Expand full comment
Uncouth Barbarian's avatar

lol, I’m 39 bro

In Spain the nationalists didn’t really get hot and heavy till they started killing Nuns bro.

America has a lot of release valves. The people that feel heavily about things? That are willing to actually Do things, Margaret - they actually do the release valves. They make the sacrifices to home school. Change churches. Hide guns. Etc.

But we still get riots. Still see politicians killed. Still see businessmen assassinated.

And if you don’t live in a community prepping for this stuff and supporting each other for the last 10 years - you’re behind the times.

You’re literally playing catch up.

Expand full comment
p3ck3rw00d's avatar

Same age as me then. I guess your Boomer wall-of-text posting is in spirit only. Forgive me. In America, we have a certain group of people who are permitted and even *encouraged* to do Jungle Law. We try to live as far away from them as possible; we keep our children out of the kid prisons where they would have Jungle Law inflicted upon them while simultaneously being forbidden from ever invoking Jungle Law in their own defense.

Expand full comment
Uncouth Barbarian's avatar

I guess I haven't been clear then.

Weaponizing the legal system while most of the population is following a rules based order is not Jungle Law territory. It's destructive and retarded, a step towards it, because you're showing that you don't belong in the system and never will.

At that point the rest of the people can evict you, kill you, or endure you. The latter has consequences.

Those being that either the ones breaking the rules either spread chaos, end up ruling and enforce through power, or go to war -to name a few.

Boomers, being "nice" gullible people, have chosen the worst paths every step of the way. Hence, we're not at Jungle Law territory yet. Because we still operate as if rule of law exists. We pretend it is so. Trump may, in fact, revitalize it as we see in this SCOTUS ruling and if other steps are taken.

But it's not Jungle Law until we really get into Franco territory. Sulla and Bolivar.

Then it's Jungle Law. When there's two or more sides, and you're not even sure which side you're on, but you're willing to kill for you and yours. And no one will blame you for it. But they just might kill you anyways.

Expand full comment
kertch's avatar

Why didn't Keagan or Sotomayor write the dissent? Probably because they knew that they would be on shakey ground and so did not want to risk embarrassment. Brown-Jackson has assumed the position from Sotomayor as "Least Qualified" justice on the court. We are always up in arms about judges playing as activists. Brown-Jackson is an activist playing as a judge.

Expand full comment
Tree of Woe's avatar

There's two dissents. The primary dissent was by Keagan and Sotomayor. It was the one that brought up, e.g. "complete relief" and "class actions" and so on. The majority opinion treated it respectfully and addressed its concerns. Jackson wrote a separate dissent. That's the one that got skewered.

Expand full comment
Alan Schmidt's avatar

Kagan is the only leftist judge with the intelligence to be a judge. She is a partisan hack, but is smart enough to mask it in plausible legal theory.

Expand full comment
kertch's avatar

Which is the reason that KBJ got smacked down. Even if she's a total retard, she must have staff that can make some sort of acceptable legal argument.

Expand full comment
ThePossum's avatar

KBJ saw the word "equity" and put her hand up, "I'll write it I'll write it!"

And the worst part is she's too low IQ to even partially recognize how out of her depth she really is. At best she should be waving away DCFS cases in some urban hellhole somewhere.

Expand full comment
PJ London's avatar

I commented a year ago that the powers behind the Democrat party and the Uniparty (the PTB) wanted Trump to win. They knew that an economic reset ($37 trillion debt !) was inevitable and would/will be more disruptive than 1929.

Enough people would have voted for Biden even if it was announced that he was dead, so they announced/appointed Harris, who had demonstrably failed at every task in government, as the candidate as she could not possibly beat Trump. Then it appeared that even she had a good chance if she just kept quiet and giggled enough. So in the last three months they put her on dozens of TV 'chat' shows to prove she was really, really too stupid to be a President, and damn she still nearly won.

So Trump wins the election and will be held responsible for everything after Jan 20.

After the assassination attempt, Trump believes that God himself has appointed Trump and that therefore he can do no wrong. He is an absolute moron and will take advice from whoever talks to him last, as long as that person sufficiently kisses his ass. He is a tent evangelist, promoted to be Pope and run the Catholic Empire. He doesn't have a clue but thinks that because he is popular with the mob (for the moment) that makes him 'right'.

He surrounded himself with 'yes' men and because he has no understanding, he cannot explain or argue his positions and brooks no arguments.

He lives in a fantasy world and ignores anyone and anything that does not fit his illusion.

The PTB use the lower courts since Trump-45 put conservatives in the USSC, the only positive thing he has ever achieved.

The PTB own all three branches of government just as they own both parties. Trump is a useful tool in their cover up of their control. They did not expect him to go quite so crazy quite so fast and have to scramble to keep him from hampering 30 years of soft creep. The Globalists have been working for 100 years to eradicate any form of Nationalism and Trump is just a minor, temporary irritant.

The economy will take another 6 -18 months to crash then they can "Dallas" him and Vance will do whatever they tell him.

The Globalist's real problem is the BRICS philosophy, and Trump's only success is causing the whole world (minus Israel) to want to join BRICS. I will give odds of ten to one that Trump does not finish his term. Impeachment, health or assassination will strike before 2028 and it will happen (or cause) the financial meltdown. The USA will have as much power and influence as the UK does today.

Expand full comment
Tree of Woe's avatar

Good analysis. I wish I had powerful arguments to rebut you, but I don't. Your theory fits the available evidence as well as any I've constructed. I've laid out both my optimistic case (Aenean renewal) and my pessimistic (American eschaton) already so no need to rehash them here.

Expand full comment