Excellent article. The author clearly has read the book "The Ecotechnic Future" which I reviewed a few months ago. An excellent work that I would recommend to any one contemplating a post-Faustian civilization in a less-apocalyptic light. There are a few statements I would like to add to the work done by @ahnafibnqais on both sides.
1] There is the option for a space-faring nation to rise at the expense of all other nations. Effectively in a global economy of de-growth or simply in a zero-sum state. One nation can absorb the resources of foreigners and promote a growth economy even as the rest of the world quickly decays. The United States is positioned to do this through an Imperial age. What will be an speedy apocalyptic decline among foreign nations might be an era of stellar adventure for the US... for a while. The military expense will grow over time just as any other form of Return On Energy Investment ROEI.
2] In the above scenario, foreign cities would become mines for critical and rare metals. Foreign individuals becoming employed scavenging the metals from their own cities. This will probably become an international grey market.
3] A large power-house with surplus atomic energy may develop a chemical method of cracking CO2 and converting it back into hydrocarbons. (We know this is possible biologically, we just need a way to industrialize it and there hasn't been any money in this type of research yet). What you then have is the ability to remain on a petroleum economy, but with artificially produced petroleum. This would be tricky to accomplish, but allows one to side-step the enormous energy expenditure of transitioning to an electric economy. You use the electricity to make more petrol.
4] The global economy is geared to infinite-growth. As growth slows, stagnates, and then eventually retreats, the global economy is going to collapse at some point. A major transition in international finance will be needed to maintain global economic systems in a stagnant economy. That capricious restructuring alone might be enough to send human civilization over the edge. I hope not, but there's really no way to plan for the type of fundamental re-alignment of financial incentives that'll be coming. Most of our elites right now seem more interested in kicking the can down the road through inflation and public spending to simulate economic growth. I discussed this problem in my Limits to Growth analysis and my review of Breaking Together.
5] Price-speculation will create artificial bottlenecks. People will utilize the above problem of economic restructuring to make massive profits through global economic asset speculation. We'll see monstrous asset bubbles (like the one that's growing right now in winter 2024). The asset bubbles will be caused by price speculators anticipating shortages or gluts of product. The speculators will make a huge amount of money while effectively impoverishing every one else across numerous international markets.
6] The innovations of the modern sciences have slowed dramatically. I'm working on an article right now highlighting this problem. Bullshit research is occurring as a byproduct of bullshit public spending (as highlighted in paragraph 4). Academia has become highly feminized and a lot of good researchers are driven out due to the school-room cultural dramas. The result is that a large amount of research is "safe" research that's iterative rather than innovative. The cultural shifts have compounded on resource shortages to prevent us from innovating our way out of this problem. It's going to be a major issue that no one is really talking about outside of academia. The replication crisis demonstrates that a significant percentage (around 50 to 90) either use false data or publish bad results.
7] The modern bureaucratic state is unable to cope with the coming challenges. Bureaucrats enforce policy, they don't come up with new ideas or ways to build better systems. Think of a bureaucracy like a computer where legislation goes in one end and blind rule-enforcement comes out the other. The bureaucracy can't adjust quickly to necessary critical changes. An excellent example is that all vehicles in the US require a catalytic converter for production and sale. If suddenly platinum become unavailable, then catalytic converters can't be produced... if that happens then there will be no new vehicle for sale in the United States until an alternative source for a cat-converter can be found. The same goes for backup cameras, inertial detectors, all types of requirements. Enforcement of policy by the local bureaucracy can effectively nullify entire industries of there's a shortage of some hyper-specific part(s) or materials.
I'm going to restack your article also. Some of these edits benefit the 'we can make it' side of the argument, but most do not. We'll see over the next century.
Looking forward to it. I'm in a mixed position. I think that we'll undergo a radical restructuring, but I think the stars will be within the reach of the next civilization, but it'll be treated very differently.
It took a while to type up 😉 … but here are my thoughts on these points:
Responding to Points [1] & [2]:
There is no option for Global Hegemony since such a thing requires Massive amounts of Credit, Material & Energy Surplus, Capital, etc, that nobody is willing, ready & able to use. That ship sailed away long ago… I would argue Europe, Pre-WW I, had the Surplus Energy, Metals & minerals, Demographic profile (young men, 20 to 40 years old), & Tech to do all that… but they no longer do. This is because today the Westerners are broke:
America is 36 trillion USD in debt, and the Interest on the debt alone is now just under 1 trillion USD).
The Europeans are far worse off, with many having higher debt-to-GDP ratios than the USA.
Just so we know what that means, historically, these nations have been the most indebted societies in recorded human history. Mass Starvation, War, Civil Strife, etc., are on the cards… and these will claim victims in the tens of millions. There will be no ‘imperial revival,’ not when these sorts of numbers are identified and compared to past historical examples.
Meanwhile, China is not interested in world domination, and Russia has no demographics for the project. Both countries also lack the surpluses mentioned earlier.
There will be no ‘Imperial Unified Govt’ since the next few decades will involve multiple World Wars fought over scant & decreasing resources.
Essentially, by 2054 & beyond, the population will rapidly decrease due to a combination of War, Pestilence, Famine & Death… due to Energy Poverty, Demographic Decline, & Tech Stagnation, making people desperate & lashing out at one another to accrue what little energy & elemental resources will be around.
Now, to understand this a bit more… we need to do some quick High school Math:
The Global Energy Consumption numbers for 2023 (Fossil Fuels, Traditional Biomass, Nuclear & Renewables)… add up to just over 183,000 TWh, of which around 30,000 TWh is Electricity Generation. If you do some more quick math, we get 20-21 TW produced hourly by humans globally. Out of this number, some 3 to 3.5 TW is produced for electricity.
Remember: Conversion losses make up 1.5x to 2x for the Energy flow chart, so (taking a smaller estimate) a further 4.5 TW is lost by humans every hour to Heat Energy.
That means the 21 TW we began with (21-3-4.5) = 13.5 TW remains. Transport occupies about 5 to 5.5 TW more (let’s take the smaller number) & this is the number which cannot be fiddled with since it means Global Trade & Commerce come to a halt without things moving around. The electricity number also cannot be fiddled with since it will mean blackouts & other disasters, with many dead. So now we have… (13.5-5) = 8.5 TWh remaining. Some estimates say that if all Residential, Commercial, & Agricultural activities are factored in… you’re talking 8-10 TW of energy (again, take the lower number)… which leaves you with 0.5 TW of energy per hour surplus produced globally.
The point being that as Grandmaster of DOOM, John Michael Greer noted back then… there is no more surplus energy ‘floating around’ to do much. Yes, the 0.5 TW is good to have… but it will not last & in the coming years & decades, it will go 0 & then negative. When it does… Humanity will drop down from 20-21 TW to something closer to 5 TW by the century’s end (these are the numbers Dr Simon discussed with Nate Hagens a while ago).
Ipso facto, ’A Space faring civilization at the expense of all others’ is not possible, not with these numbers, which (again) if you think are incorrect, feel free to read the report in the Proem by Dr Simon, which calculates these things out 😉
Point [3] & ‘abiotic oil’ is a dead end since it may be technically feasible but economically unviable (given contracting TW numbers noted earlier). There’s also the fact that Conventional Nuclear as it is has never turned a profit and has relied on Mass subsidy & the looting of Africa to stay afloat (Case Study: France). So, given these many decades of failure and the LcoEs of Nuclear being what they are (i.e. uncompetitive), I see this notion of ‘Abiotic Oil through Nuclear’ as impossible.
Also, Something to emphasize: The system ‘writ large’ cannot be held static while some scientist bro tries to make ‘Abiotic Oil’ viable. He will be living & working under the pressures of Energy Poverty, Mineral-Metal outages, Tech Stagnation, & Demographic Implosion like everyone else. Yes, you can ameliorate things a bit using public policy… but let’s say the Oil per barrel price goes over 200 bucks… in that case, no Nuclear Reactors (of any sort) will be viable anymore since the logistics for the value chain falls apart. Oil is the ‘Master resource’ of the planet since it makes logistics & transport possible… without which the margins of all the other energy modes fall apart.
Point [4] is happening as we speak. Credit contraction in the Western economies (especially the US) will soon spread like a contagion to the rest of the world, & this will push quite a few societies (who import a lot of their energy, minerals & metals… & who have high credit, & very old population profiles) well over the edge, correct.
Point [5]… yes, I expect people to make a tonne of money, but that is irrelevant if there is nothing to buy. If you live in (say) Germany in 2074 & make a tonne of money from this boorish sort of hustle, you will not be able to afford basic things that we nowadays take for granted (such as climate-controlled interiors). More likely case: You will use your winnings at the casino to buy some heating, some meat, etc., which nobody else around you can afford in this timeline of Energy & Mineral-Metal Poverty.
Point [6]… I think the replication crisis is certainly a big deal, but it is overshadowed by something more fundamental: The Law of Diminishing Returns. Several centuries ago, if you sat down below an Apple tree (like Newton did) & an apple fell next to you, that would be enough impetus to figure out breakthroughs & discoveries about the world around you. Today… if you built a particle accelerator the size of the solar system, you could probably learn a thing or two that is novel in Physics… but the Energy, Material, etc requirements are unassailable. So, while I recognize that the replication crisis is a thing, what I see that to be is but a harbinger of the next step… which is the full-on transition (over several centuries) to the Post-Scientific Age, whereby Empirical Experimentation & whatnot hit their Own Physical & related Limits.
Point [7]… the bureaucratic class is on its way out, & an entrepreneurial elite will replace them. Grandmaster of DOOM, John Michael Greer, is of the view (this is his working theory) that this is because the surpluses generated by having these HR & related white collar ‘busy work’… such things are falling apart due to contractions in energy, demography, etc. So the entrepreneurs will (for a while) garner access to large stores of money, resources & whatnot by simply excising this useless class. But that too will only be temporary once further Limits to Growth kick in & make Scarcity Industrialism (a la entrepreneurs, populist politicians, autocrats, etc) unviable… leading human societies in the far future to pursue Scavenging modes & related derivative systems instead, which by then will be more viable than Industrial modes of organization.
Regarding your response to points 1 and 2, I disagree at 2 levels. First, let's assume that we can maintain our current average global power-output. Not necessarily grow it, but maintain it for well into the range of 2100. The reasoning for this is the perpetual unearthing of new oil reserves as they seem to be needed. We also presume that you're correct in Europe, China and India not being sizeable threats to the US hegemony. My proposal is that right now nation-states are playing a global game of hot-potato with their economic systems. Eventually these systems will collapse, but who is hurt and who benefits is still in flux. There will absolutely be wars, but if global equity is mostly-centralized in the stagnation-induced-crashed, then that centralized capital can still be used to perform massive leaps in infrastructure. The example being taken from Greers book: "In effect, the average American consumes the output that would be generated by three hundred personal slaves and servants."
I don't think that's as metaphorical as modern liberals would like to imagine it is. If the standards of living of 300 people can be sufficiently dropped in a foreign country for the sake of production, then 1 American can retain their standard of living. The United States is the only nation poised with sufficient hegemonic and military power and capital to potentially take this position as a successor to the global industrial age.
Regarding point 3]
Abioitic oil production (might) be possible to catalyze. And you're absolutely right that doing so with atomic energy in the United States would require looting large swaths of the rest of the world. See above. We're totally capable of doing that if we have a resurgence of national-exceptionalism. Which might occur in response to global economic uncertainty. The petroleum requirements for atomic power could become a bottleneck. The question resolves down to more a question of if the West is willing and able to use the military to loot foreign nations for precious resources. I suspect the answer will be at LEAST "kind of-sort of"
Points 4 and 5] The credit contraction could cause the global crisis that ends things. Could also cause a cultural resurgence that stabilizes one or two select nations as the rest of the world collapses into poverty.
Point 6] I'm writing an article on this right now. It'll be a few days. You're correct here, and I think the problems are cultural, physical, and sociological. Academia is a mess.
Thanks for the response. I'll definitely consider this as I continue writing. I'm going to be working on a "systems collapse" article at some point after I finish the "bullshit research" article.
Art Berman and others have run the numbers; there is no world in which circa 2100, human beings still have 20-21 TW of energy production globally. It will decrease considerably from that number down to 5 TW or less by century’s end.
🇺🇸 is dying at multiple levels at the same time: energy, economy, etc. It will not exist as a viable nation state and vox day (and others ) back in the day used to say 2033… but I reckon they are too optimistic given how rapidly the exponential trend is for the interest on the debt.
The west has no military left to speak of, neither the industry nor the means to wage war against the world. Yes, it has nukes: but that’s a lose lose for everyone. My own hunch is that 🇺🇸 will Balkanize to social and economic pressures long before it resorts to said means (which would only mean defeat for it also, albeit in a different zero sum sort of way).
Nice post by Ahnaf about the hard neo-Malthusian limits that humanity is rapidly barreling toward. Humanity is simply too large and consuming rapidly depleting energy sources that technological civilization requires to survive long-term. It is like an ant colony that stumbles across a giant pile of sugar; it consumes the sugar, has a massive population expansion while doing so, then experiences a mass die off once the sugar pile runs out. We simply can't help ourselves - we are a locust-like species and the temptation of easy living for 100-200 years was too great. However, I would like to see Ahnaf address the possibility of SpaceX (which I'm a big fan of) using rapid reusable rockets to bring resources from around the solar system for future consumption. How would that adjust his prognosis and equations, if at all?
Interesting metaphor... I would more say that Faustian Man is like the Chef who promises to cook 'The Greatest DISH ever!' & who lacks the material ingredients to do so. No matter how skilled the chef, or how innovative, intelligent & whatnot he/she is... lack of ingredients is a Hard Boundary. Yes, you can 'innovate' & cook vegetarian (for instance) if you don't have Beef... but fundamentally what that means is you will not be cooking a Beef Dish.
I think Space X will get some subsidy from the govt, some private investment from interested parties & some interest from key figures in the coming years & decades... that said:
Something can be technically feasible (& very impressive to boot) but economically unviable. Just to give you an example of what I am talking about (since you brought up Space resources)... The Japanese have sent a mission to collect asteroid samples (5.4 grams I believe) & the whole project costs inordinate sums of money, material, human capital, etc.
Basically, there is no Margin for 'Space Mining' & there wont be much of it due to the current state of things (Tech stagnation, Demographic implosion & Energy poverty), projected into the future... coupled with the hard limits on Elemental reserves & Energy.
Yes, some Centibillionaire might get a few tonnes of 'stuff from up there'... but he will never make a profit out of it. & as a result, this means the whole thing is DOA.
Good arguments, well polished, which is understandable as they've probably been made again and again ever since the the first village started to worry about overcrowding and limited farm land.
The difference being that Modern Geology & Metallurgy has decent Survey Skills nowadays. We know (with good confidence) what exists in the Crust, regarding overall reserves for most minerals & metals. Certainly, these are *estimates*, but they are in the ballpark... correct.
Some error might be there with a few percentage points on some of the rarer stuff here & there... but in general we know (for instance) half of all Copper has already been dug up.
USGS notes some 7 million metric tons mined to date. They've Identified deposits that contain an estimated 2.1 billion metric tons. They estimate that undiscovered resources contain about 3.5 billion metric tons of copper.
Yep & we "knew" much of the oil was used up before fracking, we know aluminum can , in many but not all situations, replace copper for moving electricity, we know carbon is an excellent conductor and we've a rather large amount of that available.
Rare earths are useful but I suspect civilization and technology can survive and thrive even without lithium.
Necessity was, is, and will be the mother of invention and innovation. I'm not saying your doom and gloom is absolutely wrong but I'd long hesitate before considering buying the whole cloth.
700 million Metric tonnes has been dug up since recorded Human History.
2.1 billion Metric tonnes is what has been 'mapped out' overall.
3.5 billion is the undiscovered estimate, correct... but here's the catch:
Copper extraction will fall apart without Fossil Fuels. The 3.5 billion remaining will not be dug up at the same rate (say) we dug up Copper from 1900 till the present.
When I say 'half of all copper,' I am referring more to the concept of What can *actually be done* given the future Energy bottlenecks that are coming up with the decline of Fossil Fuel stashes to power all this mining.
This is what people fail to understand. Necessity *is not* the mother of invention, rather Invention & innovation are bounded by scarcity.
In the year 2124, people will be using shovels & pickaxes to mine for ores... they will not be using Diesel powered equipment (which increase yield, speed, etc). This is because the cheap Diesel to do so will have run out by then.
Things always work 'in unison' with one another.
Simply saying 'Civilization will be FINE without Lithium'... Sure! If we develop non-Lithium Battery & Buffer Tech en masse & deploy it at scale & scope. But that will not be happening if Primary Energy per capita falls apart with Stagnant & Declining Fossil Fuel Reserves. This is what you seem to be missing here.
Of course, to be fair... it's not just yourself, it's also a whole group of folks who do this (so no judgement on my part! 😉), but we have to look at the 'whole system and the interactions' as opposed to one or two things running out.
Nope Skippy (GRIN). That is not what you seem to have said.
You said half the copper has already been mined, now you say when you said that that you meant "..of What can *actually be done* given the future Energy bottlenecks that are coming up with the decline of Fossil Fuel stashes to power all this mining. " even though that's quite obviously not what you said.
You are right though energy wise we should look at the whole system, - including nuclear fusion. A pipe dream, never gonna happen? I do gotta allow maybe we are a long way from a fusion generator in California or Ohio.
Well, my apologies if I misspoke a bit & ought to have used better phrasing 😉
Fusion power died in the 1970s when people realized that it is economically unviable. It will not be coming back. It's a Dead, broken dream that people continue to harp on while we know (with very good data from past experiments) indicating that there is No margin there.
And No, nobody is doing that since the Sun is too far away. 😉
Again- Economically unviable, even though technically feasible.
Feel free (for example) to study the Japanese attempt at mining *5.4 grams of asteroid* for inordinate sums of money & material 😉 :
That's the reality of the Hard Limits of technology.
Also, Good Luck *collecting* the energy you pick up 93 million miles away, and bringing it back over here. WW IV will start far earlier than that & people will kill each other down here on Earth first.. before such a thing is dreamed up.
I quite agree, all such is of course quite impossible, as is, as everybody knew, sailing to India from Europe or if God meant us to fly he would have given us wings. ;-)
My two cents is that the debate about finite resources, the energy predicament, the future should focus on the aforestated.
Like, WHAT THE FUCK ARE WE DOING over here?
It makes sense that the cromagnon man would have wanted to invent the wheel, make a hammer, master fire, stuff like that. It's no fun to freeze your ass off in the winter.
It makes no sense to make gas guzzlers and drive them around needlessly for the fuck of it. It makes no sense to manufacture cheap pieces of shit and ship them around the world just to give useless idiots a dopamine hit because they have nothing else in their empty lives.
C'est quoi notre raison d'etre, tabarnak? Pillage, consume, burn, apres nous le deluge style?
Likewise, travel to Mars? Beyond? What the fuck are we gonna do there? Wreak havoc the same way we do down here on Earth?
The thing about energy and other resources is that if the present trajectory continues, there will never be enough of them.
People need to do one thing - turn inward instead of being focus outward, on forever transforming the world around them.
You want infinite growth? Work on mastering your own self. You got infinite possibilities there. And you don't need to burn or destroy everything left and right.
A Mad Scientist in Antarctica 'working on a Wunderwaffe technology to SAVE Civilization' will not be isolated from what happens 'out there.' If Oil Outages Cripple Industry (for instance) his Wunderwaffe tech will also be impacted.
He cannot escape the interwoven, Bounded, Endogenous nature of Technology.
Without having even close to the expertise to assess these claims competently, I can only say they resonate with my instinct that industrial civilization is intrinsically unsustainable due to resource scarcity, and that it must all come crashing down sooner or later --probably sooner. The primitive humans of the distant future, if there are any, may remember this epoch as a fantasic legend, like Atlantis-- although certain signs, like the mount Rushmore monument will last to remind them of what once was truly possible. It's not clear to me why "Eurabian Man" will inherit the world, on a platter or otherwise. No one but "Faustian Man" ever did before, and the material conditions that make world mastery even possible will disappear along with him.
The inheritance will be more a world that is a giant Scrapyard which will have to be scavenged... I don't expect Giant World Wars after this century (the Demography will not exist once the population drops by several billion from current levels).
I say 'on a platter' because several centuries from now, when the Dark Age peters out & Global Civilization once more becomes possible... it will be the Man of Mizaan (i.e. Eurabian Man in my writings & theorizing) who will have the requisite technical acumen, ecological know-how & overall resilience to not 'master' the world... but rather to live within in.
Well written, well documented, and interesting read. I am aware of all this, yet something still bothers me.
The probable vs the possible.
I am not naively stating, “Don’t worry, something will save us.”
More, “Sure, if something doesn’t change, with the info at hand, your possible scenario increases in probability.”
But, the secret tech. Problems already solved. Craft that can do things they shouldn’t. I saw one in Bosnia. It still haunts me.
We don’t know the limits of what is possible. We don’t have access to the information. You have postulated all this from available sources and we are completely ignorant of anything and everything else. Like the potential energy deposits in Antarctica.
Keep in mind, this is not meant to be a thorough criticism. More, a reminder.
It is so tempting to be certain about things, which quite frankly should never fall into that category, like the future.
So, it may happen. It may not. I don’t know and you don’t either. We all have varying ideas. You have graciously and excellently shared yours.
My remarks are off the cuff, an intuitive response that you are correct in this line of thought, but perhaps too narrowly focused. There are many other possibilities. And the speed in which they turn to probabilities can be shocking indeed.
You never see coming what cannot be seen coming. I have a suspicion (not belief) that humans have been in space for a while. But, this was a great estimation with the pieces you have.
The Unseen realms have many inexplicable phenomenon (For Muslims, the Djinn are capable of tremendous feats of speed & strength, for instance).
All that being True... it's also True that We have a good idea & estimate of what the Crust contains. Yes, it's not '100% accurate,' but Geologists & Geology works in Confidence intervals... meaning that they give you ballpark estimates & figures.
Based on said figures (which we have decades upon decades of survey data to collate from)... The Hard Limits to Energy, Metals, Minerals & sundry Materials have already been reached for certain key resources &/or about to be reached for others. That's just how things are.
That's not a valid rebuttal since it amounts to betting the house (i.e. Earth) on winning the lottery (which is possible, but highly improbable 😉 )
It's Possible that tomorrow a non-Fossil Fuel Source of Abundant, Fungible & Concentrated Energy is found... but Possibility is not the same as Probability... and this scenario, though Possible, is highly Improbable 😉
Which is why caution & miserliness with energy, elements, etc that we have *this very moment* is far more warranted overall. 😉
A good article by Ahnaf. Worth the read whether you agree with Tree of Woe's recent essays or not.
I have several disagreements.
First is that, while the HP of machine vs Acreage of farmland may have been flat on the chart, that says nothing about how efficient that machinery has been. Laborers are typically involved within the fruit and meat industries within our country, and not within the grains, soy, corn, etc - which (sadly) make up the majority of the American diet at this point in time. Thus it stands to reason that the machinery -currently is- saving us on that front. This isn't even taking into account any of the machinery involved within processing the foods to get it to market, which is quiet involved.
While I personally would like to see this go down, and believe that we would be healthier for it due to the rising amount of GMOs and the lack of health that processed foods, seed oils, etc give us - one can easily argue that it is the robots and the machinery that is feeding us these things at the current moment.
"In time, living conditions for working-class people (black, white, brown, etc.) will deteriorate, & mass emigration waves will leave for greener pastures. Thus, the elderly will no longer find sufficient help & perish in a slow, grinding fashion."
I don't think that this will occur in the US. There is very few places left to run to, unlike in the EU. By the time that it gets bad enough to incentivize the US person to leave, because we have a better demographics, we'll be the last island of refuge. Therefore, where to oh Western man?
Plus, when one brings up the demographic "butterfly of death" chart that you so love, one doesn't take into account actual numbers.
If the old of this generation die off, which they will do, what does that leave us? The same with Japan. Japan will be fine if it loses 1/4 of it's population, as long as they stay Japanese. It currently has the most Japanese it's ever had alive. The myth of "we must grow at all costs" needs to die, and by standing by the demographics charts you, yourself Ahnaf, perpetuate this myth. People die, civilizations and nations need not. They can ebb and flow as long as they stay true to themselves. Now, whether the US, Japan, Germany, etc decide to do so, because of the realities behind what the shrinking of their populations MEANS, is a different story. But it is not, and need not be, the end of the world.
"The United States, a veritable Energy Superpower, uses all (!) of its Nuclear & most of its Coal & Renewable source inputs to ‘soak up’ the 65% conversion inefficiencies for electricity generation, & this ratio has remained stable for over half a century."
You frame this in such a way that coal, nuclear, and renewable are not subject to the same conversion inefficiencies. They are. If you took those sources out of the equation, the inefficiencies would still be there. If they were the only power source, the inefficiencies would still be there. All you'd get is less power to play with. Yes, some power sources have a difference in power loss conversion, but it's not a radical difference (and/or it's mostly in the stupid renewables that everyone is coming around to see are retarded anyways). Therefore one should mostly look at, "Do I need more power?" If yes, build more! If no, build less. And, almost always, the answer is yes.
Your DOOMful message about metals is fairly focused on rare earths with regards to renewables. To which I think most people agree, and that most people would simply say - ditch the renewables. The only honest case I've seen laid out for them is hybrid cars, which can take minimal about of the renewables needed, and use fossil fuels for the rest. Even that I'm leery of, and don't personally endorse because I like things that work - I'd advocate for going back to full mechanical, no chip cars personally because the replacement costs of the parts due to EROEI makes up for the fuel use and can be maximized when engineered correctly.
Finally, I think that in your estimating the costs and abilities of the MSR's it's hard to estimate the declining costs of professionally getting it going. When you know what you're doing, cut red tape, and get the skills - costs and time lines go down. We've added so much costs, and so much red tape, while losing skills in the West; that it's somewhat ridiculous.
I have much more hope than you. Not of Mars, but of the Western civilization in general.
Reality is not LARPING as Marvel Avengers or Reed Richards with his super-science solving technical problems in a fell swoop.
We already had the fell swoop back in the 1950's.
Now our opposition in the world is making use of our innovations.
When you see the rest of the world putting thorium reactors into service where we have done nothing for 75 years, the problem is not the technology.
The problem is the people.
The people are not going to change. They are not going to be inspired and suddenly completely turn around their culture and capacity. Won't happen.
There is the sad reality of cycles in civilizations. We aren't going to beat this one. We're not better than our ancestors.
It's not being a pessimist or an optimist.
It is what it is.
It is not leading to Mars or conquest of outer space or all these other fantasties. The majority of America can barely read and write at the level of a child.
All that stuff is science fiction. Science fact is our civilization is going to collapse or "be collapsed" as it has been many times. All these wild fantasies will never happen.
A Roman administrator drew up a design for an ox powered ship. He never did figure out what would happen to ox manure on the deck. He didn't bother because it was all fantasy. The ship was never built and Rome's problems with shipping goods got worse until it came to an end.
I would advise all people planning to go to Mars to make sure you have enough food hidden away you are not forced into a FEMA camp to consume bugs. That's the real world.
>> The people are not going to change. They are not going to be inspired and suddenly completely turn around their culture and capacity. Won't happen. <<
Precisely.
It's also important to note that Demographically, there are *fewer* White Men aged 20-40 (by percentage terms) across the West due to Demographic Transition & Implosion.
A few decades from now, these will become societies that are *incapable* of innovation.
It's not an accident (for example) that Sweden had to recently BEG the Chinese to send them their 30-year-old Battery Tech... it's because (1) They are Too Impotent to Innovate themselves (due to mass Social Aging) & (2) They lack the Technical Acumen to do so.
When we had Malcom on the show... he pointed out how (slowly but surely) all the 'Faustian Men' of Europe are kowtowing to China & others for Technology & Innovation.
This will only accelerate as we see 'Demographics is Destiny!' in action... except it is not the Racial aspect, but rather the *Aging* Aspect that will play the key role.
It upsets me to hear this impractical fantasizing because it might as well be crystal meth addiction and curling up into a world of dreams on some filthy mattress in a flophouse.
The resolve is just not there anymore. The people are too old to do anything now.
Precisely. It's not a politically correct thing to say:
But you will inevitably fall apart if your society has too many Grandpas & Grandmas.
Japan's Median Age is 49, and it is still increasing. They will not be Doing anything for the next several decades. That is the Real World.
America is at 38.3 years old... & that number is only because of Mass Migration from Mexico, a giant slave labour force of Young Men who do brutal labour-Intensive Work.
Factories & Manpower. That's What Civilization runs on.
People make plans and hasten towards their own destruction.
All kinds of opium dream plans.
Unfortunately :
1. Killed 120 million of their own babies, leaving US a white ghost town.
2. So depraved and insane they cannot form families with fathers and mothers.
3. Last generation getting their breast and penises sawed off, hormonally sterilized
4. Older generation were anti-intellectual and chose meaningless professions
5. No serious provisions for their descendants they didn't abort, a tiny few remaining
6. Ran credit and debts into astronomical numbers
7. Fed themselves fluoride and aspartame for years, turning their brains into flubber
8. Injected themselves with a deadly sterilizing vaccine killing many of them every day with all kinds of physical malfunctions and DNA damage
... no surfing the spaceways on your hoverboard fighting space monsters, I am afraid. Just eating aboveground will be a major concern for that small number who survive into the near future.
People like to blame The baby Boomers... but it's not just that generation. Everyone else played a role (big & small) where they just 'lived in the moment' & did not bother with future generations... & now they have this outcome.
Ahnaf is likely a psyop. He is selling a poisoned pill: A bleak future for Europe and Whites while Asia/BRICS is ascendant. To make matters worse, Ahnaf plans for Arabs to fulfill the Jewish goal of eradicating Whites that make up only 8% of the world.
Maybe I should write doom articles to Blacks about how a Dark Age is foreordained. A Dark Age where no more brown skin is found in Africa and the Near East and Whites have replaced them all.
Granted, Ahnaf is good enough at parroting Peak Oil topics of 2007. I could have written such in 2007, but I have grown since then.
Tesla Physics, Metaphysics, and Gnostic teachings make Peak Oil stuck in 2007. Hell, Ahnaf is calling Petroleum a “fossil fuel”. He probably took the “vaccine” and knows his carbon footprint.
You will notice that I simply linked up studies Re: Energy Poverty & Mineral Outages (both of which are factual, given Geological surveys) & then simply added on top of that some observations regarding Technological Stagnation & the Demographic Transition.
The results of these studies & papers are simply what they are. I am just 'telling it like it is.'
If I am a 'Psy-Op,' I'm definitely not doing much of a good job since you seem equal parts enraged & contemptuous of my alleged 'failed' attempts at 'formenting a narrative' 😉
Dmitry Orlov was a psyop, a Russian agent. He is informative, entertaining, and predictive programming. He is a foreign agent that tells a doom narrative for American youth to abandon their hopes and life plans.
Yours is a little similar in telling Whites to hand over the fertile lands of Europe and Amerixa.
As far as the science, it is as worthless as all climate science and medical textbooks. So much bullshit, where is the truth within? It will take 75 years to weed through.
In fairness, I like the greening and stewardship vision of the future. But, your message should be the greening of your ancestral lands. Terraforming the deserts is a noble cause that will immortalize your engineers.
I take my offense at your claims to hybridize and genocide Europe. I see the same issue with Mexicans that have been here in America for 40 years. They are getting uppity and speak of breaking pieces off for Mexico. Well, Mexico and the USA will have a Narco-border war and we will decide that way. Same as Muslims will be bloodied in Europe until a non-hybrid victor is chosen. Maybe we should, White and Muslim, focus on eradicating Jews and returning to our homelands of the year say…1900?
Quick Observation: Throughout Human History, People have had Duties & Responsibilities to not just their families, friends, themselves, etc... but likewise to their lands, faith & whatnot. When these were shirked, other people ('invaders,' if you will) showed up & eventually displaced the original inhabitants.
Faustian Man today has aborted hundreds of millions of his own offspring (who would have populated his so called 'ancestral lands') and he has likewise engaged in wasteful consumptive practices, harming the ecology & whatnot of said lands.
I do not pity him because I believe firmly in the principle of 'Actions have Consequences.' What I simply do is extrapolate it to the macrocosm and look at entire peoples & civilizations in said way (Sir Cleveland Blakemore, who writes Vault-Co Communications, does the same thing). So that's the issue here:
It's less I am 'telling them to hand things over' & more making the observation that 'given all that you have done to undermine yourselves... this is going to be the end result.' It's a Descriptive Project that I am engaging in... if you will. 😉
Agreed. The Faustian Civilization has fossilized and memesis has turned to worshipping fatherless black rappers that pederast white boys. I have family roots and know what true Western Culture has remaining in our reserves. It will not be a colonizing of the planet, but a scouring of our homelands. The future is not written, but Whites will war with Hispanics and Muslims to enforce the borders of Europe and America. I even see a place for African-Americans in America, but Muslims and Hindus have no place in America. Maybe try Brazil or Mexico as weak hosts. I appreciate Muslims and their culture, but not on my lands. I would propose two cities in America become multi-cultural ports for commerce: one Pacific and one Atlantic. The rest of America remains Whites and Blacks in their voluntary segregated and legally protected communities and mulatto communities everywhere else.
The weakness in the West is temporary, we will eradicate the Jews for the 110th time. This is where Muslims could respect boundaries as allies or settle boundaries with warfare.
Disagree. If you study Persian & Turkic societies, the Home Garden (especially in the courtyard) is vital to both Familial & Economic Life. It is Desert, Arid climates which make people view their resources in this way (provided they have sound spritual teaching).
The same is not true for those 'born in the forests' to begin with. They tend to develop philosophies & theologies of Plenty, as opposed to models of Scarcity.
Eurabian man will be a man of Islam, who partakes in the bounties of multiple peoples (Persian, Arabic, Turkic, etc). There is no issue here, therefore 😉
Addendum: Visit Madinah sometime (namely, The Blessed Prophet’s city) and inspect its traditional gardens. The Arabs have a garden culture… it’s simply less well known than their Persian and Turkic brethren 😉
I asked my AI project's opinion on this and to both "Steelman" and "refute" the essay, and finally to offer a "nuanced" synthesis:
This essay offers a provocative and sweeping critique of the potential for a future Aenean civilization, one that transcends industrial collapse and resource depletion. It paints a compellingly pessimistic view of the current trajectory of industrial societies and speculates about what might emerge after their fall. Here's an analysis of the key arguments, both supportive and critical, with a synthesis that attempts to reconcile the stark pessimism with a more nuanced perspective.
Support for the Argument (The "Titanium-Man" Case)
Demographic Decline:
The essay accurately highlights the demographic challenges faced by many industrialized societies, such as aging populations, low birth rates, and the resulting economic and social strains. These are real phenomena with measurable consequences, including rising dependency ratios, increased healthcare costs, and strained pension systems.
Energy Transition Challenges:
The analysis of energy constraints, particularly the limitations of renewable energy systems and the continued reliance on fossil fuels, is grounded in practical concerns. The inefficiencies of energy conversion, the material demands of renewable infrastructure, and the geopolitical complexities surrounding nuclear energy and rare earth metals underscore significant obstacles to maintaining the energy-intensive lifestyles of today.
Resource Depletion:
The essay draws heavily on Dr. Simon P. Michaux's work to highlight the sheer scale of mineral and material shortages that would hinder large-scale transitions to green energy or advanced technologies. This aligns with concerns about overshoot and the unsustainable exploitation of finite planetary resources.
Cultural and Psychological Shifts:
The essay’s emphasis on how future civilizations might view Faustian ideals as "grotesque and demonic" offers a poignant reflection on the limits of unbridled growth and individualism. It imagines a post-industrial ethos grounded in ecological balance and modest ambitions, which resonates with critiques of the Anthropocene.
Critiques of the Argument
Overstated Determinism:
The essay leans heavily on deterministic conclusions about energy, demographics, and technology. While constraints are real, human ingenuity has repeatedly defied dire predictions, as evidenced by breakthroughs in renewable energy, agricultural productivity, and digital technology.
Underestimation of Adaptation:
Societies have historically shown remarkable resilience and capacity for adaptation. The narrative assumes linear declines without adequately accounting for how decentralized technologies, local resilience strategies, or cultural shifts could mitigate some of the dire outcomes.
Dismissal of Technological Potential:
The essay downplays the potential for emergent technologies, such as AI-driven optimization, synthetic biology, or asteroid mining, to provide innovative solutions to energy and material shortages. While these are speculative, so too are the assumptions of total systemic collapse.
Neglect of Global Variation:
The narrative is largely Western-centric, assuming a uniform trajectory for all civilizations. However, diverse regions and cultures may respond to challenges differently, and the potential for innovation or alternative systems to arise outside the West is underexplored.
Philosophical Fatalism:
While evocative, the essay’s framing of the future as inevitably Earthbound and spiritually ascetic may undercut the aspirational and exploratory aspects of human nature. The "man of Mizaan" may not be the only archetype to emerge.
Synthesis: A More Balanced View
Constraints Are Real, But Not Absolute:
The essay provides a valuable caution against techno-utopianism and infinite growth paradigms. However, it’s essential to recognize that constraints often spur innovation. Humanity’s ability to adapt should not be underestimated.
Multiple Futures Are Possible:
While the essay envisions a "New Dark Age" followed by a Mizaanian civilization, it overlooks the possibility of plural futures. Some regions may experience collapse, while others stabilize or thrive through decentralized, innovative solutions.
Reconciling Faustian and Mizaanian Ideals:
The Faustian drive for exploration and expansion need not be entirely abandoned. Instead, it could be tempered with the Mizaanian focus on harmony and stewardship. A synthesis of these ideals might prioritize sustainable exploration, localized autonomy, and ecological balance.
Emergent Technologies as Tools, Not Saviors:
While no single technology will "save" humanity, a suite of innovations could extend the timeline of industrial civilization, providing breathing room for cultural and structural transitions toward sustainability.
Conclusion
The essay challenges the reader to confront uncomfortable truths about industrial civilization’s limits. While its pessimism is sobering, it risks closing the door on the very adaptability and creativity that define humanity. By synthesizing the Faustian drive with Mizaanian equilibrium, it’s possible to envision a future that honors both ambition and responsibility, reaching for the stars without forgetting the earth beneath our feet.
It took AI a lot of words and energy to state the intuitive truth that I and others made in other comments. The message is: Don’t arrogantly assume you see the whole picture. Have faith and seek the better path else risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
A doom merchants’ medium of exchange is fear and intellectual self-aggrandizement. Morph that energy into achieving shared awareness, approach the future faithfully, seek the unknown actively, and we can will find the path to better future than the one peddled in this post.
I am thankful to have read the post though, as It has taught me much.
A 'better future' is one that Ecotopic & which focuses on prudent usage of resources. 😉
It will involve staying Down here on Earth, & not wasting time, effort, resources & whatnot on the DOOM-ed voyage to Space.
There is no 'self aggrandizing' going on here, merely a rough sketching out of the realities of Demographic Implosion, Energy Poverty & Metal-Mineral Decline.
There's a conspiracy against the human race. We all have our own theories as to who or what is to blame and how it might be confronted. But in the end we are only left with ourselves. We are the conspiracy.
I tend to agree re: the conspiracy, albeit I will be invoking Islamic theology here & refer to Abolish/Satan/The Devil who engages in said adversarial role against us. 😉
Now might be a good time to start thinking about what might be abundant in the Negindustrial Age that we can start planning now to make the most of when the time comes.
Example: Dr Simon believes that Iron (*one of the* most abundant Elements in the Crust) should be utilized more in sundry fields where alloys of it can be reused & recycled better than a lot of the competing stuff which is More Scarce. I tend to agree with him, though I await his technical paper & meta-analysis on the subject, which will expound more on the details. 😉
Excellent article. The author clearly has read the book "The Ecotechnic Future" which I reviewed a few months ago. An excellent work that I would recommend to any one contemplating a post-Faustian civilization in a less-apocalyptic light. There are a few statements I would like to add to the work done by @ahnafibnqais on both sides.
https://alwaysthehorizon.substack.com/p/book-review-an-ecotechnic-future?r=43z8s4
1] There is the option for a space-faring nation to rise at the expense of all other nations. Effectively in a global economy of de-growth or simply in a zero-sum state. One nation can absorb the resources of foreigners and promote a growth economy even as the rest of the world quickly decays. The United States is positioned to do this through an Imperial age. What will be an speedy apocalyptic decline among foreign nations might be an era of stellar adventure for the US... for a while. The military expense will grow over time just as any other form of Return On Energy Investment ROEI.
2] In the above scenario, foreign cities would become mines for critical and rare metals. Foreign individuals becoming employed scavenging the metals from their own cities. This will probably become an international grey market.
3] A large power-house with surplus atomic energy may develop a chemical method of cracking CO2 and converting it back into hydrocarbons. (We know this is possible biologically, we just need a way to industrialize it and there hasn't been any money in this type of research yet). What you then have is the ability to remain on a petroleum economy, but with artificially produced petroleum. This would be tricky to accomplish, but allows one to side-step the enormous energy expenditure of transitioning to an electric economy. You use the electricity to make more petrol.
4] The global economy is geared to infinite-growth. As growth slows, stagnates, and then eventually retreats, the global economy is going to collapse at some point. A major transition in international finance will be needed to maintain global economic systems in a stagnant economy. That capricious restructuring alone might be enough to send human civilization over the edge. I hope not, but there's really no way to plan for the type of fundamental re-alignment of financial incentives that'll be coming. Most of our elites right now seem more interested in kicking the can down the road through inflation and public spending to simulate economic growth. I discussed this problem in my Limits to Growth analysis and my review of Breaking Together.
https://alwaysthehorizon.substack.com/p/analysisreview-the-limits-to-growth?r=43z8s4
https://alwaysthehorizon.substack.com/p/book-review-breaking-together?r=43z8s4
5] Price-speculation will create artificial bottlenecks. People will utilize the above problem of economic restructuring to make massive profits through global economic asset speculation. We'll see monstrous asset bubbles (like the one that's growing right now in winter 2024). The asset bubbles will be caused by price speculators anticipating shortages or gluts of product. The speculators will make a huge amount of money while effectively impoverishing every one else across numerous international markets.
6] The innovations of the modern sciences have slowed dramatically. I'm working on an article right now highlighting this problem. Bullshit research is occurring as a byproduct of bullshit public spending (as highlighted in paragraph 4). Academia has become highly feminized and a lot of good researchers are driven out due to the school-room cultural dramas. The result is that a large amount of research is "safe" research that's iterative rather than innovative. The cultural shifts have compounded on resource shortages to prevent us from innovating our way out of this problem. It's going to be a major issue that no one is really talking about outside of academia. The replication crisis demonstrates that a significant percentage (around 50 to 90) either use false data or publish bad results.
7] The modern bureaucratic state is unable to cope with the coming challenges. Bureaucrats enforce policy, they don't come up with new ideas or ways to build better systems. Think of a bureaucracy like a computer where legislation goes in one end and blind rule-enforcement comes out the other. The bureaucracy can't adjust quickly to necessary critical changes. An excellent example is that all vehicles in the US require a catalytic converter for production and sale. If suddenly platinum become unavailable, then catalytic converters can't be produced... if that happens then there will be no new vehicle for sale in the United States until an alternative source for a cat-converter can be found. The same goes for backup cameras, inertial detectors, all types of requirements. Enforcement of policy by the local bureaucracy can effectively nullify entire industries of there's a shortage of some hyper-specific part(s) or materials.
I'm going to restack your article also. Some of these edits benefit the 'we can make it' side of the argument, but most do not. We'll see over the next century.
Thank You for the compliment, & rest assured...
Yours Truly will be responding to all these points in full in the coming days! 😉
It will be part of the inaugural episode of 'The DOOM Merchant Responds' ... Stay Tuned! 😘
Looking forward to it. I'm in a mixed position. I think that we'll undergo a radical restructuring, but I think the stars will be within the reach of the next civilization, but it'll be treated very differently.
It took a while to type up 😉 … but here are my thoughts on these points:
Responding to Points [1] & [2]:
There is no option for Global Hegemony since such a thing requires Massive amounts of Credit, Material & Energy Surplus, Capital, etc, that nobody is willing, ready & able to use. That ship sailed away long ago… I would argue Europe, Pre-WW I, had the Surplus Energy, Metals & minerals, Demographic profile (young men, 20 to 40 years old), & Tech to do all that… but they no longer do. This is because today the Westerners are broke:
America is 36 trillion USD in debt, and the Interest on the debt alone is now just under 1 trillion USD).
The Europeans are far worse off, with many having higher debt-to-GDP ratios than the USA.
Just so we know what that means, historically, these nations have been the most indebted societies in recorded human history. Mass Starvation, War, Civil Strife, etc., are on the cards… and these will claim victims in the tens of millions. There will be no ‘imperial revival,’ not when these sorts of numbers are identified and compared to past historical examples.
Meanwhile, China is not interested in world domination, and Russia has no demographics for the project. Both countries also lack the surpluses mentioned earlier.
There will be no ‘Imperial Unified Govt’ since the next few decades will involve multiple World Wars fought over scant & decreasing resources.
Essentially, by 2054 & beyond, the population will rapidly decrease due to a combination of War, Pestilence, Famine & Death… due to Energy Poverty, Demographic Decline, & Tech Stagnation, making people desperate & lashing out at one another to accrue what little energy & elemental resources will be around.
Now, to understand this a bit more… we need to do some quick High school Math:
The Global Energy Consumption numbers for 2023 (Fossil Fuels, Traditional Biomass, Nuclear & Renewables)… add up to just over 183,000 TWh, of which around 30,000 TWh is Electricity Generation. If you do some more quick math, we get 20-21 TW produced hourly by humans globally. Out of this number, some 3 to 3.5 TW is produced for electricity.
Remember: Conversion losses make up 1.5x to 2x for the Energy flow chart, so (taking a smaller estimate) a further 4.5 TW is lost by humans every hour to Heat Energy.
That means the 21 TW we began with (21-3-4.5) = 13.5 TW remains. Transport occupies about 5 to 5.5 TW more (let’s take the smaller number) & this is the number which cannot be fiddled with since it means Global Trade & Commerce come to a halt without things moving around. The electricity number also cannot be fiddled with since it will mean blackouts & other disasters, with many dead. So now we have… (13.5-5) = 8.5 TWh remaining. Some estimates say that if all Residential, Commercial, & Agricultural activities are factored in… you’re talking 8-10 TW of energy (again, take the lower number)… which leaves you with 0.5 TW of energy per hour surplus produced globally.
The point being that as Grandmaster of DOOM, John Michael Greer noted back then… there is no more surplus energy ‘floating around’ to do much. Yes, the 0.5 TW is good to have… but it will not last & in the coming years & decades, it will go 0 & then negative. When it does… Humanity will drop down from 20-21 TW to something closer to 5 TW by the century’s end (these are the numbers Dr Simon discussed with Nate Hagens a while ago).
Ipso facto, ’A Space faring civilization at the expense of all others’ is not possible, not with these numbers, which (again) if you think are incorrect, feel free to read the report in the Proem by Dr Simon, which calculates these things out 😉
Point [3] & ‘abiotic oil’ is a dead end since it may be technically feasible but economically unviable (given contracting TW numbers noted earlier). There’s also the fact that Conventional Nuclear as it is has never turned a profit and has relied on Mass subsidy & the looting of Africa to stay afloat (Case Study: France). So, given these many decades of failure and the LcoEs of Nuclear being what they are (i.e. uncompetitive), I see this notion of ‘Abiotic Oil through Nuclear’ as impossible.
Also, Something to emphasize: The system ‘writ large’ cannot be held static while some scientist bro tries to make ‘Abiotic Oil’ viable. He will be living & working under the pressures of Energy Poverty, Mineral-Metal outages, Tech Stagnation, & Demographic Implosion like everyone else. Yes, you can ameliorate things a bit using public policy… but let’s say the Oil per barrel price goes over 200 bucks… in that case, no Nuclear Reactors (of any sort) will be viable anymore since the logistics for the value chain falls apart. Oil is the ‘Master resource’ of the planet since it makes logistics & transport possible… without which the margins of all the other energy modes fall apart.
Point [4] is happening as we speak. Credit contraction in the Western economies (especially the US) will soon spread like a contagion to the rest of the world, & this will push quite a few societies (who import a lot of their energy, minerals & metals… & who have high credit, & very old population profiles) well over the edge, correct.
Point [5]… yes, I expect people to make a tonne of money, but that is irrelevant if there is nothing to buy. If you live in (say) Germany in 2074 & make a tonne of money from this boorish sort of hustle, you will not be able to afford basic things that we nowadays take for granted (such as climate-controlled interiors). More likely case: You will use your winnings at the casino to buy some heating, some meat, etc., which nobody else around you can afford in this timeline of Energy & Mineral-Metal Poverty.
Point [6]… I think the replication crisis is certainly a big deal, but it is overshadowed by something more fundamental: The Law of Diminishing Returns. Several centuries ago, if you sat down below an Apple tree (like Newton did) & an apple fell next to you, that would be enough impetus to figure out breakthroughs & discoveries about the world around you. Today… if you built a particle accelerator the size of the solar system, you could probably learn a thing or two that is novel in Physics… but the Energy, Material, etc requirements are unassailable. So, while I recognize that the replication crisis is a thing, what I see that to be is but a harbinger of the next step… which is the full-on transition (over several centuries) to the Post-Scientific Age, whereby Empirical Experimentation & whatnot hit their Own Physical & related Limits.
Point [7]… the bureaucratic class is on its way out, & an entrepreneurial elite will replace them. Grandmaster of DOOM, John Michael Greer, is of the view (this is his working theory) that this is because the surpluses generated by having these HR & related white collar ‘busy work’… such things are falling apart due to contractions in energy, demography, etc. So the entrepreneurs will (for a while) garner access to large stores of money, resources & whatnot by simply excising this useless class. But that too will only be temporary once further Limits to Growth kick in & make Scarcity Industrialism (a la entrepreneurs, populist politicians, autocrats, etc) unviable… leading human societies in the far future to pursue Scavenging modes & related derivative systems instead, which by then will be more viable than Industrial modes of organization.
Hope all of that Helps! 😉
Regarding your response to points 1 and 2, I disagree at 2 levels. First, let's assume that we can maintain our current average global power-output. Not necessarily grow it, but maintain it for well into the range of 2100. The reasoning for this is the perpetual unearthing of new oil reserves as they seem to be needed. We also presume that you're correct in Europe, China and India not being sizeable threats to the US hegemony. My proposal is that right now nation-states are playing a global game of hot-potato with their economic systems. Eventually these systems will collapse, but who is hurt and who benefits is still in flux. There will absolutely be wars, but if global equity is mostly-centralized in the stagnation-induced-crashed, then that centralized capital can still be used to perform massive leaps in infrastructure. The example being taken from Greers book: "In effect, the average American consumes the output that would be generated by three hundred personal slaves and servants."
I don't think that's as metaphorical as modern liberals would like to imagine it is. If the standards of living of 300 people can be sufficiently dropped in a foreign country for the sake of production, then 1 American can retain their standard of living. The United States is the only nation poised with sufficient hegemonic and military power and capital to potentially take this position as a successor to the global industrial age.
Regarding point 3]
Abioitic oil production (might) be possible to catalyze. And you're absolutely right that doing so with atomic energy in the United States would require looting large swaths of the rest of the world. See above. We're totally capable of doing that if we have a resurgence of national-exceptionalism. Which might occur in response to global economic uncertainty. The petroleum requirements for atomic power could become a bottleneck. The question resolves down to more a question of if the West is willing and able to use the military to loot foreign nations for precious resources. I suspect the answer will be at LEAST "kind of-sort of"
Points 4 and 5] The credit contraction could cause the global crisis that ends things. Could also cause a cultural resurgence that stabilizes one or two select nations as the rest of the world collapses into poverty.
Point 6] I'm writing an article on this right now. It'll be a few days. You're correct here, and I think the problems are cultural, physical, and sociological. Academia is a mess.
Thanks for the response. I'll definitely consider this as I continue writing. I'm going to be working on a "systems collapse" article at some point after I finish the "bullshit research" article.
Art Berman and others have run the numbers; there is no world in which circa 2100, human beings still have 20-21 TW of energy production globally. It will decrease considerably from that number down to 5 TW or less by century’s end.
🇺🇸 is dying at multiple levels at the same time: energy, economy, etc. It will not exist as a viable nation state and vox day (and others ) back in the day used to say 2033… but I reckon they are too optimistic given how rapidly the exponential trend is for the interest on the debt.
The west has no military left to speak of, neither the industry nor the means to wage war against the world. Yes, it has nukes: but that’s a lose lose for everyone. My own hunch is that 🇺🇸 will Balkanize to social and economic pressures long before it resorts to said means (which would only mean defeat for it also, albeit in a different zero sum sort of way).
Nice post by Ahnaf about the hard neo-Malthusian limits that humanity is rapidly barreling toward. Humanity is simply too large and consuming rapidly depleting energy sources that technological civilization requires to survive long-term. It is like an ant colony that stumbles across a giant pile of sugar; it consumes the sugar, has a massive population expansion while doing so, then experiences a mass die off once the sugar pile runs out. We simply can't help ourselves - we are a locust-like species and the temptation of easy living for 100-200 years was too great. However, I would like to see Ahnaf address the possibility of SpaceX (which I'm a big fan of) using rapid reusable rockets to bring resources from around the solar system for future consumption. How would that adjust his prognosis and equations, if at all?
Thank You for the compliment!
Interesting metaphor... I would more say that Faustian Man is like the Chef who promises to cook 'The Greatest DISH ever!' & who lacks the material ingredients to do so. No matter how skilled the chef, or how innovative, intelligent & whatnot he/she is... lack of ingredients is a Hard Boundary. Yes, you can 'innovate' & cook vegetarian (for instance) if you don't have Beef... but fundamentally what that means is you will not be cooking a Beef Dish.
I think Space X will get some subsidy from the govt, some private investment from interested parties & some interest from key figures in the coming years & decades... that said:
Something can be technically feasible (& very impressive to boot) but economically unviable. Just to give you an example of what I am talking about (since you brought up Space resources)... The Japanese have sent a mission to collect asteroid samples (5.4 grams I believe) & the whole project costs inordinate sums of money, material, human capital, etc.
Basically, there is no Margin for 'Space Mining' & there wont be much of it due to the current state of things (Tech stagnation, Demographic implosion & Energy poverty), projected into the future... coupled with the hard limits on Elemental reserves & Energy.
Yes, some Centibillionaire might get a few tonnes of 'stuff from up there'... but he will never make a profit out of it. & as a result, this means the whole thing is DOA.
Hope that Helps! 😉
Good arguments, well polished, which is understandable as they've probably been made again and again ever since the the first village started to worry about overcrowding and limited farm land.
The difference being that Modern Geology & Metallurgy has decent Survey Skills nowadays. We know (with good confidence) what exists in the Crust, regarding overall reserves for most minerals & metals. Certainly, these are *estimates*, but they are in the ballpark... correct.
Some error might be there with a few percentage points on some of the rarer stuff here & there... but in general we know (for instance) half of all Copper has already been dug up.
Half of all copper dug up? Ludicrous.
USGS notes some 7 million metric tons mined to date. They've Identified deposits that contain an estimated 2.1 billion metric tons. They estimate that undiscovered resources contain about 3.5 billion metric tons of copper.
Yep & we "knew" much of the oil was used up before fracking, we know aluminum can , in many but not all situations, replace copper for moving electricity, we know carbon is an excellent conductor and we've a rather large amount of that available.
Rare earths are useful but I suspect civilization and technology can survive and thrive even without lithium.
Necessity was, is, and will be the mother of invention and innovation. I'm not saying your doom and gloom is absolutely wrong but I'd long hesitate before considering buying the whole cloth.
700 million Metric tonnes has been dug up since recorded Human History.
2.1 billion Metric tonnes is what has been 'mapped out' overall.
3.5 billion is the undiscovered estimate, correct... but here's the catch:
Copper extraction will fall apart without Fossil Fuels. The 3.5 billion remaining will not be dug up at the same rate (say) we dug up Copper from 1900 till the present.
When I say 'half of all copper,' I am referring more to the concept of What can *actually be done* given the future Energy bottlenecks that are coming up with the decline of Fossil Fuel stashes to power all this mining.
This is what people fail to understand. Necessity *is not* the mother of invention, rather Invention & innovation are bounded by scarcity.
In the year 2124, people will be using shovels & pickaxes to mine for ores... they will not be using Diesel powered equipment (which increase yield, speed, etc). This is because the cheap Diesel to do so will have run out by then.
Things always work 'in unison' with one another.
Simply saying 'Civilization will be FINE without Lithium'... Sure! If we develop non-Lithium Battery & Buffer Tech en masse & deploy it at scale & scope. But that will not be happening if Primary Energy per capita falls apart with Stagnant & Declining Fossil Fuel Reserves. This is what you seem to be missing here.
Of course, to be fair... it's not just yourself, it's also a whole group of folks who do this (so no judgement on my part! 😉), but we have to look at the 'whole system and the interactions' as opposed to one or two things running out.
"This is what you seem to be missing here. "
Nope Skippy (GRIN). That is not what you seem to have said.
You said half the copper has already been mined, now you say when you said that that you meant "..of What can *actually be done* given the future Energy bottlenecks that are coming up with the decline of Fossil Fuel stashes to power all this mining. " even though that's quite obviously not what you said.
You are right though energy wise we should look at the whole system, - including nuclear fusion. A pipe dream, never gonna happen? I do gotta allow maybe we are a long way from a fusion generator in California or Ohio.
However.
Blue skying and beyond blue skying a bit, actually we've a fusion reactor up and working some 93 million miles away. Now if we just stick a solar cell in orbit, microwave power to earth... https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/otps-sbsp-report-final-tagged-approved-1-8-24-tagged-v2.pdf?emrc=744da1
Perhaps that, among other options, could be what you're missing here?
Well, my apologies if I misspoke a bit & ought to have used better phrasing 😉
Fusion power died in the 1970s when people realized that it is economically unviable. It will not be coming back. It's a Dead, broken dream that people continue to harp on while we know (with very good data from past experiments) indicating that there is No margin there.
And No, nobody is doing that since the Sun is too far away. 😉
Again- Economically unviable, even though technically feasible.
Feel free (for example) to study the Japanese attempt at mining *5.4 grams of asteroid* for inordinate sums of money & material 😉 :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayabusa2
That's the reality of the Hard Limits of technology.
Also, Good Luck *collecting* the energy you pick up 93 million miles away, and bringing it back over here. WW IV will start far earlier than that & people will kill each other down here on Earth first.. before such a thing is dreamed up.
I quite agree, all such is of course quite impossible, as is, as everybody knew, sailing to India from Europe or if God meant us to fly he would have given us wings. ;-)
"have been squandered on sundry trivialities"
My two cents is that the debate about finite resources, the energy predicament, the future should focus on the aforestated.
Like, WHAT THE FUCK ARE WE DOING over here?
It makes sense that the cromagnon man would have wanted to invent the wheel, make a hammer, master fire, stuff like that. It's no fun to freeze your ass off in the winter.
It makes no sense to make gas guzzlers and drive them around needlessly for the fuck of it. It makes no sense to manufacture cheap pieces of shit and ship them around the world just to give useless idiots a dopamine hit because they have nothing else in their empty lives.
C'est quoi notre raison d'etre, tabarnak? Pillage, consume, burn, apres nous le deluge style?
Likewise, travel to Mars? Beyond? What the fuck are we gonna do there? Wreak havoc the same way we do down here on Earth?
The thing about energy and other resources is that if the present trajectory continues, there will never be enough of them.
People need to do one thing - turn inward instead of being focus outward, on forever transforming the world around them.
You want infinite growth? Work on mastering your own self. You got infinite possibilities there. And you don't need to burn or destroy everything left and right.
Excellently said! 😊
Good analysis of the Doom that lies ahead, should be titled “It Was Fun While It Lasted.”
Thank you kindly! 😉
Yes, I thought of a more catchy title… but sadly I am a bit too old fashioned to be tongue & cheek like that 😆
Once the innovation cycle is broken, you get resource scarcity of EVERYTHING soon after that.
Absolutely.
A Mad Scientist in Antarctica 'working on a Wunderwaffe technology to SAVE Civilization' will not be isolated from what happens 'out there.' If Oil Outages Cripple Industry (for instance) his Wunderwaffe tech will also be impacted.
He cannot escape the interwoven, Bounded, Endogenous nature of Technology.
Anyways, thank you for writing it all out in detail. A lot was made more clear to me on your reasoning behind your beliefs
Thank You for reading it! 😉
Without having even close to the expertise to assess these claims competently, I can only say they resonate with my instinct that industrial civilization is intrinsically unsustainable due to resource scarcity, and that it must all come crashing down sooner or later --probably sooner. The primitive humans of the distant future, if there are any, may remember this epoch as a fantasic legend, like Atlantis-- although certain signs, like the mount Rushmore monument will last to remind them of what once was truly possible. It's not clear to me why "Eurabian Man" will inherit the world, on a platter or otherwise. No one but "Faustian Man" ever did before, and the material conditions that make world mastery even possible will disappear along with him.
The inheritance will be more a world that is a giant Scrapyard which will have to be scavenged... I don't expect Giant World Wars after this century (the Demography will not exist once the population drops by several billion from current levels).
I say 'on a platter' because several centuries from now, when the Dark Age peters out & Global Civilization once more becomes possible... it will be the Man of Mizaan (i.e. Eurabian Man in my writings & theorizing) who will have the requisite technical acumen, ecological know-how & overall resilience to not 'master' the world... but rather to live within in.
Hope that helps! 😉
Well written, well documented, and interesting read. I am aware of all this, yet something still bothers me.
The probable vs the possible.
I am not naively stating, “Don’t worry, something will save us.”
More, “Sure, if something doesn’t change, with the info at hand, your possible scenario increases in probability.”
But, the secret tech. Problems already solved. Craft that can do things they shouldn’t. I saw one in Bosnia. It still haunts me.
We don’t know the limits of what is possible. We don’t have access to the information. You have postulated all this from available sources and we are completely ignorant of anything and everything else. Like the potential energy deposits in Antarctica.
Keep in mind, this is not meant to be a thorough criticism. More, a reminder.
It is so tempting to be certain about things, which quite frankly should never fall into that category, like the future.
So, it may happen. It may not. I don’t know and you don’t either. We all have varying ideas. You have graciously and excellently shared yours.
My remarks are off the cuff, an intuitive response that you are correct in this line of thought, but perhaps too narrowly focused. There are many other possibilities. And the speed in which they turn to probabilities can be shocking indeed.
You never see coming what cannot be seen coming. I have a suspicion (not belief) that humans have been in space for a while. But, this was a great estimation with the pieces you have.
Interesting Perspective!
The Unseen realms have many inexplicable phenomenon (For Muslims, the Djinn are capable of tremendous feats of speed & strength, for instance).
All that being True... it's also True that We have a good idea & estimate of what the Crust contains. Yes, it's not '100% accurate,' but Geologists & Geology works in Confidence intervals... meaning that they give you ballpark estimates & figures.
Based on said figures (which we have decades upon decades of survey data to collate from)... The Hard Limits to Energy, Metals, Minerals & sundry Materials have already been reached for certain key resources &/or about to be reached for others. That's just how things are.
Hope that helps! 😉
Perhaps his point was you base your arguments on what is currently known/knowable; something known/unexpected could and may change all of this. Yes?
That's not a valid rebuttal since it amounts to betting the house (i.e. Earth) on winning the lottery (which is possible, but highly improbable 😉 )
It's Possible that tomorrow a non-Fossil Fuel Source of Abundant, Fungible & Concentrated Energy is found... but Possibility is not the same as Probability... and this scenario, though Possible, is highly Improbable 😉
Which is why caution & miserliness with energy, elements, etc that we have *this very moment* is far more warranted overall. 😉
A good article by Ahnaf. Worth the read whether you agree with Tree of Woe's recent essays or not.
I have several disagreements.
First is that, while the HP of machine vs Acreage of farmland may have been flat on the chart, that says nothing about how efficient that machinery has been. Laborers are typically involved within the fruit and meat industries within our country, and not within the grains, soy, corn, etc - which (sadly) make up the majority of the American diet at this point in time. Thus it stands to reason that the machinery -currently is- saving us on that front. This isn't even taking into account any of the machinery involved within processing the foods to get it to market, which is quiet involved.
While I personally would like to see this go down, and believe that we would be healthier for it due to the rising amount of GMOs and the lack of health that processed foods, seed oils, etc give us - one can easily argue that it is the robots and the machinery that is feeding us these things at the current moment.
"In time, living conditions for working-class people (black, white, brown, etc.) will deteriorate, & mass emigration waves will leave for greener pastures. Thus, the elderly will no longer find sufficient help & perish in a slow, grinding fashion."
I don't think that this will occur in the US. There is very few places left to run to, unlike in the EU. By the time that it gets bad enough to incentivize the US person to leave, because we have a better demographics, we'll be the last island of refuge. Therefore, where to oh Western man?
Plus, when one brings up the demographic "butterfly of death" chart that you so love, one doesn't take into account actual numbers.
If the old of this generation die off, which they will do, what does that leave us? The same with Japan. Japan will be fine if it loses 1/4 of it's population, as long as they stay Japanese. It currently has the most Japanese it's ever had alive. The myth of "we must grow at all costs" needs to die, and by standing by the demographics charts you, yourself Ahnaf, perpetuate this myth. People die, civilizations and nations need not. They can ebb and flow as long as they stay true to themselves. Now, whether the US, Japan, Germany, etc decide to do so, because of the realities behind what the shrinking of their populations MEANS, is a different story. But it is not, and need not be, the end of the world.
"The United States, a veritable Energy Superpower, uses all (!) of its Nuclear & most of its Coal & Renewable source inputs to ‘soak up’ the 65% conversion inefficiencies for electricity generation, & this ratio has remained stable for over half a century."
You frame this in such a way that coal, nuclear, and renewable are not subject to the same conversion inefficiencies. They are. If you took those sources out of the equation, the inefficiencies would still be there. If they were the only power source, the inefficiencies would still be there. All you'd get is less power to play with. Yes, some power sources have a difference in power loss conversion, but it's not a radical difference (and/or it's mostly in the stupid renewables that everyone is coming around to see are retarded anyways). Therefore one should mostly look at, "Do I need more power?" If yes, build more! If no, build less. And, almost always, the answer is yes.
Your DOOMful message about metals is fairly focused on rare earths with regards to renewables. To which I think most people agree, and that most people would simply say - ditch the renewables. The only honest case I've seen laid out for them is hybrid cars, which can take minimal about of the renewables needed, and use fossil fuels for the rest. Even that I'm leery of, and don't personally endorse because I like things that work - I'd advocate for going back to full mechanical, no chip cars personally because the replacement costs of the parts due to EROEI makes up for the fuel use and can be maximized when engineered correctly.
Finally, I think that in your estimating the costs and abilities of the MSR's it's hard to estimate the declining costs of professionally getting it going. When you know what you're doing, cut red tape, and get the skills - costs and time lines go down. We've added so much costs, and so much red tape, while losing skills in the West; that it's somewhat ridiculous.
I have much more hope than you. Not of Mars, but of the Western civilization in general.
Thank You Good Sir for the kind words, & rest assured...
Yours Truly will be responding to all these points in full in the coming days! 😉
It will be part of the inaugural episode of 'The DOOM Merchant Responds' ... Stay Tuned! 😘
Once again Ahnaf told the truth here.
You need a hard stomach for the real world.
Reality is not LARPING as Marvel Avengers or Reed Richards with his super-science solving technical problems in a fell swoop.
We already had the fell swoop back in the 1950's.
Now our opposition in the world is making use of our innovations.
When you see the rest of the world putting thorium reactors into service where we have done nothing for 75 years, the problem is not the technology.
The problem is the people.
The people are not going to change. They are not going to be inspired and suddenly completely turn around their culture and capacity. Won't happen.
There is the sad reality of cycles in civilizations. We aren't going to beat this one. We're not better than our ancestors.
It's not being a pessimist or an optimist.
It is what it is.
It is not leading to Mars or conquest of outer space or all these other fantasties. The majority of America can barely read and write at the level of a child.
All that stuff is science fiction. Science fact is our civilization is going to collapse or "be collapsed" as it has been many times. All these wild fantasies will never happen.
A Roman administrator drew up a design for an ox powered ship. He never did figure out what would happen to ox manure on the deck. He didn't bother because it was all fantasy. The ship was never built and Rome's problems with shipping goods got worse until it came to an end.
I would advise all people planning to go to Mars to make sure you have enough food hidden away you are not forced into a FEMA camp to consume bugs. That's the real world.
>> The people are not going to change. They are not going to be inspired and suddenly completely turn around their culture and capacity. Won't happen. <<
Precisely.
It's also important to note that Demographically, there are *fewer* White Men aged 20-40 (by percentage terms) across the West due to Demographic Transition & Implosion.
A few decades from now, these will become societies that are *incapable* of innovation.
It's not an accident (for example) that Sweden had to recently BEG the Chinese to send them their 30-year-old Battery Tech... it's because (1) They are Too Impotent to Innovate themselves (due to mass Social Aging) & (2) They lack the Technical Acumen to do so.
When we had Malcom on the show... he pointed out how (slowly but surely) all the 'Faustian Men' of Europe are kowtowing to China & others for Technology & Innovation.
This will only accelerate as we see 'Demographics is Destiny!' in action... except it is not the Racial aspect, but rather the *Aging* Aspect that will play the key role.
No country for old men.
No country, period.
It upsets me to hear this impractical fantasizing because it might as well be crystal meth addiction and curling up into a world of dreams on some filthy mattress in a flophouse.
The resolve is just not there anymore. The people are too old to do anything now.
Precisely. It's not a politically correct thing to say:
But you will inevitably fall apart if your society has too many Grandpas & Grandmas.
Japan's Median Age is 49, and it is still increasing. They will not be Doing anything for the next several decades. That is the Real World.
America is at 38.3 years old... & that number is only because of Mass Migration from Mexico, a giant slave labour force of Young Men who do brutal labour-Intensive Work.
Factories & Manpower. That's What Civilization runs on.
Lose one (or the other)... & you are screwed.
People make plans and hasten towards their own destruction.
All kinds of opium dream plans.
Unfortunately :
1. Killed 120 million of their own babies, leaving US a white ghost town.
2. So depraved and insane they cannot form families with fathers and mothers.
3. Last generation getting their breast and penises sawed off, hormonally sterilized
4. Older generation were anti-intellectual and chose meaningless professions
5. No serious provisions for their descendants they didn't abort, a tiny few remaining
6. Ran credit and debts into astronomical numbers
7. Fed themselves fluoride and aspartame for years, turning their brains into flubber
8. Injected themselves with a deadly sterilizing vaccine killing many of them every day with all kinds of physical malfunctions and DNA damage
... no surfing the spaceways on your hoverboard fighting space monsters, I am afraid. Just eating aboveground will be a major concern for that small number who survive into the near future.
Harsh, but True.
Actions Have Consequences.
People like to blame The baby Boomers... but it's not just that generation. Everyone else played a role (big & small) where they just 'lived in the moment' & did not bother with future generations... & now they have this outcome.
To me it's simple. Light is the universal speed limit. The closest Goldilocks Planet is likely light-centuries away. Yeah. No. Earth is all we got.
Correct 😉
Ahnaf is likely a psyop. He is selling a poisoned pill: A bleak future for Europe and Whites while Asia/BRICS is ascendant. To make matters worse, Ahnaf plans for Arabs to fulfill the Jewish goal of eradicating Whites that make up only 8% of the world.
Maybe I should write doom articles to Blacks about how a Dark Age is foreordained. A Dark Age where no more brown skin is found in Africa and the Near East and Whites have replaced them all.
Granted, Ahnaf is good enough at parroting Peak Oil topics of 2007. I could have written such in 2007, but I have grown since then.
Tesla Physics, Metaphysics, and Gnostic teachings make Peak Oil stuck in 2007. Hell, Ahnaf is calling Petroleum a “fossil fuel”. He probably took the “vaccine” and knows his carbon footprint.
You will notice that I simply linked up studies Re: Energy Poverty & Mineral Outages (both of which are factual, given Geological surveys) & then simply added on top of that some observations regarding Technological Stagnation & the Demographic Transition.
The results of these studies & papers are simply what they are. I am just 'telling it like it is.'
If I am a 'Psy-Op,' I'm definitely not doing much of a good job since you seem equal parts enraged & contemptuous of my alleged 'failed' attempts at 'formenting a narrative' 😉
Dmitry Orlov was a psyop, a Russian agent. He is informative, entertaining, and predictive programming. He is a foreign agent that tells a doom narrative for American youth to abandon their hopes and life plans.
Yours is a little similar in telling Whites to hand over the fertile lands of Europe and Amerixa.
As far as the science, it is as worthless as all climate science and medical textbooks. So much bullshit, where is the truth within? It will take 75 years to weed through.
In fairness, I like the greening and stewardship vision of the future. But, your message should be the greening of your ancestral lands. Terraforming the deserts is a noble cause that will immortalize your engineers.
I take my offense at your claims to hybridize and genocide Europe. I see the same issue with Mexicans that have been here in America for 40 years. They are getting uppity and speak of breaking pieces off for Mexico. Well, Mexico and the USA will have a Narco-border war and we will decide that way. Same as Muslims will be bloodied in Europe until a non-hybrid victor is chosen. Maybe we should, White and Muslim, focus on eradicating Jews and returning to our homelands of the year say…1900?
Quick Observation: Throughout Human History, People have had Duties & Responsibilities to not just their families, friends, themselves, etc... but likewise to their lands, faith & whatnot. When these were shirked, other people ('invaders,' if you will) showed up & eventually displaced the original inhabitants.
Faustian Man today has aborted hundreds of millions of his own offspring (who would have populated his so called 'ancestral lands') and he has likewise engaged in wasteful consumptive practices, harming the ecology & whatnot of said lands.
I do not pity him because I believe firmly in the principle of 'Actions have Consequences.' What I simply do is extrapolate it to the macrocosm and look at entire peoples & civilizations in said way (Sir Cleveland Blakemore, who writes Vault-Co Communications, does the same thing). So that's the issue here:
It's less I am 'telling them to hand things over' & more making the observation that 'given all that you have done to undermine yourselves... this is going to be the end result.' It's a Descriptive Project that I am engaging in... if you will. 😉
Agreed. The Faustian Civilization has fossilized and memesis has turned to worshipping fatherless black rappers that pederast white boys. I have family roots and know what true Western Culture has remaining in our reserves. It will not be a colonizing of the planet, but a scouring of our homelands. The future is not written, but Whites will war with Hispanics and Muslims to enforce the borders of Europe and America. I even see a place for African-Americans in America, but Muslims and Hindus have no place in America. Maybe try Brazil or Mexico as weak hosts. I appreciate Muslims and their culture, but not on my lands. I would propose two cities in America become multi-cultural ports for commerce: one Pacific and one Atlantic. The rest of America remains Whites and Blacks in their voluntary segregated and legally protected communities and mulatto communities everywhere else.
The weakness in the West is temporary, we will eradicate the Jews for the 110th time. This is where Muslims could respect boundaries as allies or settle boundaries with warfare.
An Arabian informed biospirit will only be able to make deserts, not gardens.
Disagree. If you study Persian & Turkic societies, the Home Garden (especially in the courtyard) is vital to both Familial & Economic Life. It is Desert, Arid climates which make people view their resources in this way (provided they have sound spritual teaching).
The same is not true for those 'born in the forests' to begin with. They tend to develop philosophies & theologies of Plenty, as opposed to models of Scarcity.
Persians and Turks are decidedly not Arabs, which is the difference.
Eurabian man will be a man of Islam, who partakes in the bounties of multiple peoples (Persian, Arabic, Turkic, etc). There is no issue here, therefore 😉
Addendum: Visit Madinah sometime (namely, The Blessed Prophet’s city) and inspect its traditional gardens. The Arabs have a garden culture… it’s simply less well known than their Persian and Turkic brethren 😉
I would rather make a desert and call it peace than suffer the indignity of "Eurabia."
It's not so bad. 😉
It's got a bad reputation, but the Eurabian Future is better for everyone (Muslim, non-Muslim, etc) when all things are considered. Relevant:
https://www.arktosjournal.com/p/eurosiberia-podcast-26-ahnaf-ibn-qais?utm_source=publication-search
Yeah, the turd wurldist turn of the Dugin sect disgusts me.
Any scheme where the lower order commands the higher order must be rejected.
I asked my AI project's opinion on this and to both "Steelman" and "refute" the essay, and finally to offer a "nuanced" synthesis:
This essay offers a provocative and sweeping critique of the potential for a future Aenean civilization, one that transcends industrial collapse and resource depletion. It paints a compellingly pessimistic view of the current trajectory of industrial societies and speculates about what might emerge after their fall. Here's an analysis of the key arguments, both supportive and critical, with a synthesis that attempts to reconcile the stark pessimism with a more nuanced perspective.
Support for the Argument (The "Titanium-Man" Case)
Demographic Decline:
The essay accurately highlights the demographic challenges faced by many industrialized societies, such as aging populations, low birth rates, and the resulting economic and social strains. These are real phenomena with measurable consequences, including rising dependency ratios, increased healthcare costs, and strained pension systems.
Energy Transition Challenges:
The analysis of energy constraints, particularly the limitations of renewable energy systems and the continued reliance on fossil fuels, is grounded in practical concerns. The inefficiencies of energy conversion, the material demands of renewable infrastructure, and the geopolitical complexities surrounding nuclear energy and rare earth metals underscore significant obstacles to maintaining the energy-intensive lifestyles of today.
Resource Depletion:
The essay draws heavily on Dr. Simon P. Michaux's work to highlight the sheer scale of mineral and material shortages that would hinder large-scale transitions to green energy or advanced technologies. This aligns with concerns about overshoot and the unsustainable exploitation of finite planetary resources.
Cultural and Psychological Shifts:
The essay’s emphasis on how future civilizations might view Faustian ideals as "grotesque and demonic" offers a poignant reflection on the limits of unbridled growth and individualism. It imagines a post-industrial ethos grounded in ecological balance and modest ambitions, which resonates with critiques of the Anthropocene.
Critiques of the Argument
Overstated Determinism:
The essay leans heavily on deterministic conclusions about energy, demographics, and technology. While constraints are real, human ingenuity has repeatedly defied dire predictions, as evidenced by breakthroughs in renewable energy, agricultural productivity, and digital technology.
Underestimation of Adaptation:
Societies have historically shown remarkable resilience and capacity for adaptation. The narrative assumes linear declines without adequately accounting for how decentralized technologies, local resilience strategies, or cultural shifts could mitigate some of the dire outcomes.
Dismissal of Technological Potential:
The essay downplays the potential for emergent technologies, such as AI-driven optimization, synthetic biology, or asteroid mining, to provide innovative solutions to energy and material shortages. While these are speculative, so too are the assumptions of total systemic collapse.
Neglect of Global Variation:
The narrative is largely Western-centric, assuming a uniform trajectory for all civilizations. However, diverse regions and cultures may respond to challenges differently, and the potential for innovation or alternative systems to arise outside the West is underexplored.
Philosophical Fatalism:
While evocative, the essay’s framing of the future as inevitably Earthbound and spiritually ascetic may undercut the aspirational and exploratory aspects of human nature. The "man of Mizaan" may not be the only archetype to emerge.
Synthesis: A More Balanced View
Constraints Are Real, But Not Absolute:
The essay provides a valuable caution against techno-utopianism and infinite growth paradigms. However, it’s essential to recognize that constraints often spur innovation. Humanity’s ability to adapt should not be underestimated.
Multiple Futures Are Possible:
While the essay envisions a "New Dark Age" followed by a Mizaanian civilization, it overlooks the possibility of plural futures. Some regions may experience collapse, while others stabilize or thrive through decentralized, innovative solutions.
Reconciling Faustian and Mizaanian Ideals:
The Faustian drive for exploration and expansion need not be entirely abandoned. Instead, it could be tempered with the Mizaanian focus on harmony and stewardship. A synthesis of these ideals might prioritize sustainable exploration, localized autonomy, and ecological balance.
Emergent Technologies as Tools, Not Saviors:
While no single technology will "save" humanity, a suite of innovations could extend the timeline of industrial civilization, providing breathing room for cultural and structural transitions toward sustainability.
Conclusion
The essay challenges the reader to confront uncomfortable truths about industrial civilization’s limits. While its pessimism is sobering, it risks closing the door on the very adaptability and creativity that define humanity. By synthesizing the Faustian drive with Mizaanian equilibrium, it’s possible to envision a future that honors both ambition and responsibility, reaching for the stars without forgetting the earth beneath our feet.
To respond Pithily:
Human 'creativity' will not be increasing Global Copper Reserves 😉
Ditto for other Metals, Minerals, Energy & whatnot.
I don't dismiss 'Human ingenuity' ... I simply recognize that it is a Bounded variable, Endogenous to the Hard Limits of Planetary Resources.
A Chef can be 'creative'... but he/she can't cook without ingredients.
Simple as that! 😉
Interesting contribution, thanks.
It took AI a lot of words and energy to state the intuitive truth that I and others made in other comments. The message is: Don’t arrogantly assume you see the whole picture. Have faith and seek the better path else risk creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.
A doom merchants’ medium of exchange is fear and intellectual self-aggrandizement. Morph that energy into achieving shared awareness, approach the future faithfully, seek the unknown actively, and we can will find the path to better future than the one peddled in this post.
I am thankful to have read the post though, as It has taught me much.
A 'better future' is one that Ecotopic & which focuses on prudent usage of resources. 😉
It will involve staying Down here on Earth, & not wasting time, effort, resources & whatnot on the DOOM-ed voyage to Space.
There is no 'self aggrandizing' going on here, merely a rough sketching out of the realities of Demographic Implosion, Energy Poverty & Metal-Mineral Decline.
Respect you sir, thanks for responding.
There's a conspiracy against the human race. We all have our own theories as to who or what is to blame and how it might be confronted. But in the end we are only left with ourselves. We are the conspiracy.
Interesting observation!
I tend to agree re: the conspiracy, albeit I will be invoking Islamic theology here & refer to Abolish/Satan/The Devil who engages in said adversarial role against us. 😉
Now might be a good time to start thinking about what might be abundant in the Negindustrial Age that we can start planning now to make the most of when the time comes.
Example: Dr Simon believes that Iron (*one of the* most abundant Elements in the Crust) should be utilized more in sundry fields where alloys of it can be reused & recycled better than a lot of the competing stuff which is More Scarce. I tend to agree with him, though I await his technical paper & meta-analysis on the subject, which will expound more on the details. 😉